Tuesday, 1 September 2020

Avalanche vs Stars Game 6 Odds & Pick


Avalanche goalie Michael Hutchinson prior to Game 5

Michael Hutchinson is one of five goalies to have started a game in the series between the Avalanche and Stars. Photo from @Avalanche (Twitter).

  • The Dallas Stars lead the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 in their second-round playoff series
  • Game 6 will be played Wednesday, September 2nd (game time TBD)
  • All five games in the series have gone over the total and that trend shows no signs of slowing down heading in to Game 6

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars combined for another nine goals in a lopsided 6-3 victory for the Avs in Game 5. All five games to date have gone over the total.

The trend will be put to its next test on Wednesday, Sep. 2nd, when Colorado and Dallas meet in Game 6. The time of puck drop has not been announced by the league yet. But the odds are out, and they favor a Game 7.

Avalanche vs Stars Game 6 Odds

Team Puck Line Over/Under Moneyline at DraftKings
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+205) O 6 (-115) -124
Dallas Stars +1.5 (-250) U 6 (-106) +108

Odds as of Aug. 31.

The Avalanche vs Stars odds have been released and not much has changed from the Game 5 odds. The goal total is still 6.0, and the price has only shifted slightly, from -106 to -115.

What does that mean for you? It means you need to continue to ride this cash cow and hope for as many games as possible in this series. Here’s the case for the over yet again in Game 6.

Teams Scoring at Record Setting Pace

The two teams have scored a total of 43 goals in the series which is an average of 8.6 per game. The best part about betting the over is you don’t even need to stay up to watch the third period, the wager is a winner long before then. In Game 5, the Avalanche scored five goals in the first period. They tallied four in a span of only 2:36, which was exactly one second shy of the NHL record set in 1944 by the Montreal Canadiens.

The games in this series aren’t narrowly reaching the number using empty netters or the benefit of overtime winners. These two teams have exceptional offensive units which are abusing two tired defense corps and over matched goalies.

Bishop & Hutchinson Fail to Stop the Bleeding

Game 5 marked the series debuts for Stars goalie Ben Bishop and Avalanche third stringer Michael Hutchinson. Bishop was pulled after allowing four goals while posting a startling 18.46 goals against average. Hutchinson was marginally better, but when the winning goalie allows three to get past him, the over is in great shape.

Bishop and Hutchinson joined Philipp Grubauer, Pavel Francouz, and Anton Khudobin as goalies to start games in the series. Offenses that boast stars like Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Tyler Seguin don’t really need help, but boy are they getting it. Forget the regular-season stats and focus on the names for a moment.

Bishop is the only goalie with any playoff track record and even he has been unimpressive. There is no evidence this trend of high-scoring games is going to slow down.

Bet the Over Again in Game 6

I wish as much as you do that I could fire off an article with some grand wisdom for the game but it’s just not needed here. All signs have pointed to the over being the play through five games and they are still pointing that direction in Game 6.

Consider the total itself when deciding how aggressive you want to be. The total has shifted exactly half a goal since the series opener over a week ago. Imagine watching a football team put up historic scores week after week and watching the oddsmakers shift the total a half point at a time. For some reason, they don’t want to get aggressive with the total or with the price tag. I suggest you take advantage while you still can.

The Pick: Over 6 Goals (-115)

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