Tuesday, 29 September 2020

Marlins (Alcantara) vs Cubs (Hendricks) Game 1 Picks and Odds


Sandy Alcantara pitching for Miami

Sandy Alcantara is expected to be on the mound on Wednesday afternoon when the Miami Marlins battle the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Game 1 of their NL Wild-Card series. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire.)

  • The Miami Marlins visit the Chicago Cubs for Game 1 of their NL Wild-Card series on Wednesday afternoon
  • Sandy Alcantara gets the start for Miami, while veteran Kyle Hendricks is expected to be on the hill for the Cubs 
  • First pitch is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET, with a lingering risk of showers and brisk winds in the weather forecast

The Miami Marlins  make their first appearance in the MLB Postseason in 17 years when they take on the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of their NL wild-card series as +144 underdogs on Wednesday, Sep. 30th, at 2:00 pm ET.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) is expected to take the mound for the Marlins in Game 1 at Wrigley Field, while right-hander Kyle Hendricks (7-2, 2.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) gets the call for Chicago.

The Cubs enter Game 1 as -164 favorites. With home-field advantage throughout this best-of-three matchup, Chicago also sits as lofty -194 chalk on the MLB playoff series prices.

Marlins vs Cubs Game 1 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins +144 TBD TBD
Chicago Cub s -164 TBD TBD

Odds as of Sep. 29th.

Marlins Overcome Adversity in Return to Postseason

The Marlins recorded their first winning campaign since 2009 with a 31-29 record, and their march into the postseason is all the more impressive considering the adversity they faced getting here. Miami saw its season threatened early on by an outbreak of COVID-19, followed by a dismal 7-14 run that threatened to dump them out of contention.

Forced to play the majority of their games away from Marlins Park, Miami embraced its role as road warriors; the Marlins were one of only three MLB teams to record 20 road wins this season.

Miami also brings a unique distinction into its series with the Cubs, as the only MLB team to never lose a playoff series. The Marlins went on to win the World Series in their two previous postseason appearances, knocking off the Cubs along the way in the 2003 NLCS.

While the Marlins didn’t face the Cubs during the 2020 MLB regular season, they have plenty of work to do to reverse a dismal 1-10 record in their past 11 meetings. They also sport an ugly 2-13 record in 15 visits to Wrigley Field since September 2013.

Miami Marlins Home / Road Splits

11-15 Record 20-14
3.77 Runs Scored Per Game 4.85
4.92 Runs Allowed Per Game 5.18
.423 Win Percentage .588

Cubs Limping into Postseason

The Cubs look to snap out of a slump that saw them lose six of their final nine regular-season contests. Chicago pitchers were rocked at times during that stretch, with opponents scoring seven or more runs on four occasions.

However, the Cubs staff still closed out the campaign with an NL-best 30 quality starts, and is among the NL leaders in team ERA (3.99), and team WHIP (1.22). Conversely, Cubs hitters struggled at the plate, compiling a 27th-ranked .220 team average, and rank 11th among 16 playoff-bound teams with just 265 total runs scored this season.

Alcantara Makes Postseason Debut

Alcantara will make his postseason debut when he takes the mound on Wednesday afternoon. The 25-year-old has been steady since recovering from COVID-19, surrendering just eight total earned runs and striking out 30 batters in 31.1 innings over five September starts. He had a 2-1  record during that stretch.

However, he gave up eight total earned runs in 11.0 innings over two starts against Chicago in 2019.

While Alcantara has been steady, the Marlins struggled at times down the stretch to contain opposing hitters. The club surrendered an average of seven runs per game over their final eight contests, and sat near the bottom of the NL with 304 runs allowed this season.

Alcantara vs Hendricks: 2020 Comparison

7 Starts 12
3-2 Record 6-5
3.00 ERA 2.88
6.0 Innings per Start 6.2
39 Strikeouts 64
15 Walks 8
1.19 WHIP 1.00
3.72 FIP 3.55

World Series Hero Hendricks Gets the Call

In addition to his sparkling postseason credentials (he pitched nine innings during the 2016 World Series, allowing a single earned run), Hendricks was also spectacular down the stretch this season, allowing just six earned runs in 37.1 innings over five September starts, and ranked among the NL leaders in wins, ERA, and WHIP.

Hendricks has also dominated in previous dates with Miami, surrendering one or fewer runs in five of his past six starts, including four outings with zero earned runs.

Experience Gives the Cubs the Edge

The Cubs enter this series against the youthful Marlins holding a wide edge in experience. With Hendricks on the mound, Chicago should be able to avoid some of the big offensive outbursts they faced from opponents over the final days of the regular season.

Pick: Cubs (-156)

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