Wednesday, 24 June 2020

Plenty to Be Decided on Final Weekend


Milot Rashica

Milot Rashica and his Werder Bremen side are fighting for their Bundesliga lives in their final match of the season on Saturdsay. Photo by @WolvesFC_latest (Twitter)

  • The final round of Bundesliga fixtures kick off this Saturday at 9:30 am EST
  • Several key matches will decide important places in the table on the league’s final day
  • Read on for full Matchday 34 odds as well as our best bets for the week

It’s the final weekend of the Bundesliga season as Matchday 34 presents us with the last nine matches, all kicking off at 9:30 am EST Saturday morning.

There are still many permutations in the standings that will affect the Champions League, Europa League and relegation battles even as the league comes down to the final matchday. But the short version is: the title is locked up, Leipzig, Gladbach and Leverkusen are still jockeying for top four, Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim are fighting for direct Europa League qualification and either Dusseldorf or Werder Bremen will be playing in a relegation playoff, while the other will for sure find themselves in the 2. Bundesliga next season.

Home teams have finally started to improve their record since the restart with four wins last week and five the round prior. Yet overall, that home record is still only 20-19-34 (WDL).

Let’s look ahead to this week’s action and break down our best bets from the final Bundesliga card of the season.

Bundesliga Matchday 34 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bayer Leverkusen -1.5, -2 (-115) -400 O 3.5 (-120)
Mainz +1.5, +2 (-105) +850 U 3.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +525 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Borussia Dortmund -0.5, -1 (-105) -140 O 3.5 (-110)
Hoffenheim +0.5, +1 (-115) +295 U 3.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +335 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Borussia Monchengladbach -1.5 (-120) -305 O 3.5 (-105)
Hertha Berlin +1.5 (EVEN) +700 U 3.5 (-115)
Draw N/A +450 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.5 (-115) -305 O 3.5, 4 (-105)
Paderborn +1.5 (-105) +650 U 3.5, 4 (-115)
Draw N/A +450 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Augsburg +1.5 (-125) +600 O 3.5 (EVEN)
RB Leipzig -1.5 (+105) -265 U 3.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +400 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Werder Bremen -0.5, -1 (-135) -165 O 3, 3.5 (-115)
Cologne +0.5, +1 (+105) +400 U 3, 3.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +335 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Freiburg -0.5 (-125) -120 O 3 (-105)
Schalke +0.5 (+105) +290 U 3 (-115)
Draw N/A +285 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Union Berlin +0.5 (-115) +280 O 2.5, 3 (-110)
Fortuna Dusseldorf -0.5 (+105) -110 U 2.5, 3 (-110)
Draw N/A +245 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
VfL Wolfsburg +0.5, +1 (-120) +300 O 3.5 (-110)
Bayern Munich -0.5, -1 (EVEN) -135 U 3.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +310 N/A

All odds taken June 24

Pick 1: Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz

Leverkusen has picked the worst time to hit a down patch of form as their Champions League dreams of a top four finish now look to be hanging by a thread.

Three games back, they could only take one point from a 1-1 draw with struggling Schalke. They responded well with a 3-1 win over Cologne, but a 2-0 loss to Hertha Berlin last week dealt their top four hopes a serious blow.

Now on the final matchday, they sit in fifth place and two points back of fourth place Borussia Monchengladbach. With Gladbach at home to Hertha themselves this weekend, Leverkusen need to win and likely need help from the same team that defeated them just last week.

Going into the weekend, Gladbach have a goal-differential of +25, compared to Leverkusen’s +16, so even a win and a draw by Gladbach is unlikely to help, barring a a couple very lopsided scores in both matches.

Leverkusen have Europa League play confirmed at the very least, but it will be the UCL they want. As such there’s no reason to hold anything back against Mainz.

The Carnival club are in the opposite position, having secured their safety in the league next season after last week’s 3-1 win over Werder Bremen. The pressure is now off and there’s nothing on the line in this match for Mainz after their strong run of form has seen them win three of four.

Games between these sides have often been close of late, but still have been dominated by Leverkusen. They won 1-0 earlier this season and had wins of 5-1, 1-0 and 2-0 in the three matches prior.

Leverkusen are the far superior side and have much more on the line. They are very capable of running out as big winners, but splitting your bet on -1.5, -2 leaves you partially covered in case they only win by two.

Pick: Bayer Leverkusen -1.5, -2 (-115)

Pick 2: Werder Bremen vs Cologne

Very little is on the line for Cologne in this one, however, it’s all on the line for Werder Bremen as they look to avoid direct relegation from the Bundesliga. Bremen will also need help from Union Berlin to defeat Dusseldorf, but that won’t matter if they can’t collect the full three points themselves over Cologne.

Dusseldorf are currently 16th with 30 points and occupy the relegation playoff spot. Werder Bremen are two points back with 28 points and in a direct relegation position. For Cologne, six points above Dusseldorf there is little left to play for besides pride, as they’ve yet to win a match since the league restarted.

Werder hasn’t faired much better with just one win in their past five matches and most recently fell 3-1 to Mainz last weekend as Mainz officially locked up their safety in the league.

Cologne are now winless in their eight matches since the restart having drawn with Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 last weekend. The thing with Cologne though is that they always come to play. They’ve now scored a goal in 19-straight matches. Their games since the restart have all seen both teams scoring, a trend that has now reached ten-straight overall for the Billy Goats. Six of eight since they resumed play have gone OVER 2.5, as have 14/16.

Bremen aren’t high scorers themselves, but much like last week against Mainz, they have it all to play for and have no choice but to attack, thus creating some holes in the back as they push forward. Holes that a team like Cologne should easily be able to take advantage even if they’re playing with lower motivation.

The past three meetings with these teams have all ended 1-0, but I don’t see any chance of that trend continuing on Saturday.

Pick: BTTS & OVER 2.5 (-138)

2020 La Liga Trophy Odds Tracker

Pick 3: Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich

It’s rare you can find a team like Bayern Munich only offered at odds of -135 to win in the Bundesliga. This Saturday is one of those instances.

The reason is simple. Bayern Munich have already clinched the title, could easily rotate some players and Wolfsburg still need to fend off Hoffenheim for the final direct qualification spot in the Europa League.

Wolfsburg are currently in sixth-place, but are tied with Hoffenheim in seventh, both on 49 points. They hold the tie-breaker on goal-differential. The difference in the two placings means direct qualification into the Europa League, versus having to go through a play-in. Hoffenheim travel to second-place Dortmund who also have little to play for, so the result of that one could really go either way.

 

Wolfsburg have now lost just one in four after their 4-1 win over Schalke last weekend. The win was powered by two goals from striker Wout Weghorst who has now tallied five times in his past four matches.

Motivation aside though, it just seems foolish to bet against the Bavarian giants. Across all competitions they are now 23-1-0 in their past 24 matches. They haven’t lost a league game since December and have now won 12-straight in the Bundesliga. Eight of those 12 recent wins have come by multiple goals.

Head-to-head results also strongly favor Bayern. They won 2-0 earlier this season and 6-0 and 3-1 last season. It’s been five years since Wolfsburg defeated the champions.

 

Finally, though Wolfsburg would seem to have the higher motivation, it’s important to note that after this match and next weekend’s DFB-Pokal final against Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern have no more matches until they resume the Champions League in August. There is already concern the team could resume the tournament cold, so ensuring they finish the season on a high note can’t be discounted.

Also, for what it’s worth, Bayern have scored 96 goals on the season and while expecting to score four more to reach the century mark may be a bit much, it’s certainly not beyond their capabilities. The Bundesliga record for team goals in a season is 101, set by Bayern Munich in the 1971/72 season. The second-most scored is also held by Bayern (98) in 2012/13.

Pick: Bayer Munich win (-135)





Source link



source https://casinonewsblogger.com/plenty-to-be-decided-on-final-weekend/
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)