Mookie Betts is the favorite for NL MVP, but could a shortened season expand the field and hurt his chances? Photo by Keith Allison {flickr).
- Since MLB announced ‘Opening Day 2.0’, the NL MVP odds have been updated
- Mookie Betts remains the favorite
- We dive in to whether or not the newest Dodger is a safe bet, or if there’s value elsewhere
Since the LA Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts, he’s faced NL MVP buzz.
He’s joining a loaded lineup that has been a playoff lock for seven seasons. The thinking was the 2018 AL MVP would slide in seamlessly, putting the Dodgers over the World Series hump.
Now that baseball has finally sorted out what 2020 will look like, we get our chance to see Betts in Dodger blue.
2020 NL MVP Odds
| Player | Current NL MVP Odds | APR 30 NL MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts (Dodgers) | +468 | +448 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr (Braves) | +550 | +600 |
| Christian Yelich (Brewers) | +613 | +719 |
| Juan Soto (Nationals) | +825 | +844 |
| Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) | +1025 | +963 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr (Padres) | +1150 | +1404 |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | +1300 | +1375 |
| Nolan Arenado (Rockies) | +1825 | +1775 |
| Freddie Freeman (Braves) | +1900 | +2046 |
| Javy Baez (Cubs) | +2075 | +2175 |
Odds as of June 27.
While it wasn’t a massive drop, Betts’ 2020 NL MVP odds did get slightly longer. And some interesting names closed in on him.
Ronald Acuna Jr, Christian Yelich and Juan Soto crept closer by varying degrees, but no one enjoyed more of a bump than Fernando Tatis Jr.
With plenty of variety in the race, a strong start is important for any candidate.
Projections for NL MVP Candidates
The word that’s used to describe the 2020 season is unique. Which is fair because this year will be unlike any other.
Considering that, one my favorite strategies has been to look at players’ early season splits and see how that could carry over a shortened season. But a four month delay makes that tough.
NL MVP Projections
| Player | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG% | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts (Dodgers) | 11 | 31 | .280 | .371 | .517 | 2.3 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr (Braves) | 14 | 33 | .283 | .363 | .528 | 1.6 |
| Christian Yelich (Brewers) | 13 | 38 | .304 | .399 | .567 | 1.9 |
| Juan Soto (Nationals) | 13 | 39 | .293 | .407 | .557 | 1.6 |
With the 60-game announcement, FanGraphs have updated their projections. These create a race much tighter than the odds suggest.
In his third season, Soto would set new career-highs for average, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. He would finish third in the NL in RBI and ninth in home runs (three off the league lead).
Betts still tops the NL in runs scored and WAR however, which makes sense considering LA’s lineup.
But there were also two big power bats that pop in these predictions.
Cody Bellinger vs Bryce Harper: 2020 Projections
| 15 | HR | 15 |
| 41 | RBI | 38 |
| .386 | OBP | .383 |
| .585 | SLG% | .541 |
| .970 | OPS | .925 |
| 2.2 | WAR | 1.4 |
These two finish one home run behind Pete Alonso for the NL lead and league lead. Bellinger’s projections compare favorably to the rest of the field as well. One has to wonder if his 2019 NL MVP will hold him to a higher standard, which will be tough to judge in a shortened season.
Harper is an interesting case. MLB.com identified him as the player with the most to prove entering 2020, and it can’t help that he had to watch the Washington Nationals win the World Series after he left.
Health Determines Tatis Jr’s Candidacy
One player to love on this list from a talent perspective is San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. He’s simply electric, finishing fourth in the NL in steals (nine), while mixing in nine doubles and 11 homers.
The average falls to .265 in the projections, but if his other numbers fall within his 2019 ranges, he’ll be in the NL MVP mix.
#OTD in 2019, Fernando Tatis Jr. returned from the IL. pic.twitter.com/iDAA8V65ud
— Padres On This Day (@padresOTD) June 6, 2020
Health is the big question here, however.
In a shortened season, availability is important. Tatis finished last year shelved with a back injury, after he strained a hamstring in April.
He’s a buyer beware candidate, but his energy could dominate a shortened season.
Soto’s NL MVP Value Undeniable
Unfortunately for Betts, LA is a crowded place. He’s playing with the reigning NL MVP and a potential rookie of the year.
When looking at the race, Ronald Acuna Jr and Juan Soto stand out the most. But considering their prices, there’s more to like about Soto at +825.
A motivated Harper is a nice play too, but Soto’s game will translate nicely to a short season.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. He can be found conducting sideline interviews for SKY Sports and gathering post-match reactions for BBC. The sportcaster’s broadcasts stream on CBC Sports, Game TV, and Premier TV in the UK.
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/acuna-yelich-soto-closing-the-gap-on-favorite-betts/
No comments:
Post a Comment