Can any slugger match the pace of last season’s home run king Pete Alonso during the abbreviated 2020 MLB campaign?
Photo by @aviatorslv (twitter)
- With an abbreviated 60-game MLB season just around the corner, updated player props are now available
- The shortened schedule opens the door for sluggers and pitchers to capitalize on early-season hot streaks
- Read below to learn more about where to find the value on the updated props
Following the breaking news that MLB plans to move forward with an abbreviated 60-game regular season, online sportsbooks have been busy putting together a wide selection of betting props focused on all key player statistical categories.
Here’s a look at all the updated season props, as well as some best bets to consider as the countdown continues towards a midsummer opening day.
2020 MLB Regular Season Player Props
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Highest Batting Average | .345 | -115 | -115 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest RBI | 47.5 | -130 | +100 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest Runs Scored | 47.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest Stolen Bases | 21 | +100 | -130 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest Strikeout Total | 98.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest Total Hits | 78.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest Total Saves | 17.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Highest Win Total | 8.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Prop | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
| Most Home Runs | 19.5 | -155 | +125 |
| Prop | Total | Yes Odds | No Odds |
| Player to hit .400 or better | n/a | +800 | -1200 |
Odds taken on June 28th.
20 Home Runs Well Within Reach
Just three players have hit over 50 home runs over the past five seasons, with New York Mets rookie Pete Alonso leading the majors with 53 dingers in 2019, joining Yankees Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both topped 50 in 2017. But with the total on the most home runs to be hit during the 60-game MLB season set at just 19.5, it will take an effort at a pace far less epic than Alonso’s for the OVER to pay out.
Hitting 19.5 home runs over 60 games works out to just under Alonso’s 53-dinger total from last season. Alonso reached 53 homers despite seeing his production dip dramatically in July. Indeed, he hit 19 home runs over a two-month stretch on three occasions, and well within 60 games in each of those instances.
49 Home Runs. 103 RBI. 930 OPS should at least make you a Finalist.
Anthony Rendon hit 34 Home Runs.
Eugenio Suarez hit 32 in July thru September. Not saying Rendon should not have won but Suarez needed some love. pic.twitter.com/VNbECq0Oqe— Jimmy Vegas (@jimmyvegas337) November 8, 2019
Alonso is not unique. Other sluggers turned in similar epic power runs at the plate. Cincinnati Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez crushed a stunning 32 long balls over his final 78 outings of the season, while Kansas City Royals outfielder Jorge Soler needed just his final 52 games to hit 20 home runs.
Alonso may be hard pressed to match his home run pace of last season. In addition to playing NL East rivals 10 times each, the Mets must play four games each against tough AL East opponents. But don’t be surprised to see a slugger from a team with a far easier schedule, like the Minnesota Twins, to maintain a hot bat throughout the abbreviated campaign.
Pick: OVER 19.5 (-155)
Epic Two-Month Runs at the Plate Not Uncommon
There is no more daunting task in baseball than the ability to maintain a steady, season-long performance at the plate. Despite the focus on the record-setting number of home runs that were hit during the 2019 MLB season, the number of players that have hit .300 or better has dropped over the past two seasons. Just 17 players hit .300 in 2019, up one from 2018, but a major step back from 2016, when 25 players turned the trick.
Worn down by the long season and injuries, as well as individual team struggles on the field, even baseball’s most consistent hitters can be expected to struggle at times. A prime example of that is Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, who led the majors with a .335 average last year, despite hitting well below a .290 pace in May and June.
In 2019, Tim Anderson hit .375 in March/April
He hit .364 in August
He hit .374 in September— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) March 26, 2020
As with long ball hitters, this season’s batting champion is likely to be a player that is able to maintain a hot start over a 60-game run. Anderson blazed his trail to the batting title by overcoming an uneven start and a midseason ankle injury by embarking on an epic season-ending tear at the plate, hitting at a .368 pace over his final 51 game appearances. Expect this season’s batting champ to find a similar groove, making the OVER the safest pick among the current roundup of props.
Pick: OVER .345 (-115)
The Stage is Set for Baseball’s Next .400 Hitter
If you are liking the possibility of a hitter embarking on a season-long run at the plate, than a wager on a player hitting .400 in 2020 is worth considering. It has been 79 years since the late great Ted Williams became the last major leaguer to hit .400, achieving the feat over the course of 143 game appearances.
After flirting with .400 through August, John Olerud has tailed off somewhat, seeing his average drop to .372.
Hitting coach Larry Hisle: “I think he’s tired, really. It happens, you know. He’s played all but, what, three of our games? That’s a lot of concentration.” pic.twitter.com/DWM2I0Tm6F
— 1993 Jays In Real Time (@RealTime93Jays) September 14, 2018
Many players have come close to equalling Williams’ achievement in the decades since, including the likes of George Brett, Tony Gwynn, and John Olerud. Indeed, an additional 10 hits over his final 251 at-bats would have been all that Anderson would have needed to top .400 during his epic stretch run.
Once again, 2020’s unbalanced schedule opens the door for a player to join the likes of Barry Bonds, who batted .404 during a 59-game stretch in 2002. And with a winning wager on a .400 hitter paying out on attractive +800 odds, it is certainly a bet that provides plenty of value.
Pick: Yes (+800)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/over-under-on-most-homers-in-60-game-season-set-at-just-19-5-see-best-bets-for-the-latest-2020-mlb-props/
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