Monday, 29 June 2020

Expect Goals in Top 6 Match Between Atalanta vs Napoli


Napoli defeated SPAL this weekend

Napoli look to continue their strong play and try to chase down Atalanta for a spot in the top four when the two meet on Thursday. Photo by @en_sscnapoli (Twitter)

  • Serie A’s Matchday 29 kicks off on Tuesday, June 30
  • Can Lazio keep pace with Juve in the title race? Will Atalanta vs Napoli offer fireworks?
  • Read on for the full Matchday 29 odds as well as our best bets for the week

With Juventus winning last Friday and extending their lead in Serie A to seven points, Lazio were able to hold serve and won themselves on the weekend to cut the lead back to four. Other top six sides Inter, Atalanta and Napoli were also all winners in Round 28 and two of those sides, Atalanta and Napoli will meet this Thursday in what promises to be an entertaining affair.

It’s interesting to note some trends with various leagues that have returned from the league shutdown and who are playing without fans. The Bundesliga returned to virtually no home advantage and a high percentage of wins for the road teams. La Liga, prior to this weekend had seen several lower-scoring draws.

In Italy. after 24 matches the home/road divide is about equal but it’s been off to the races when it comes to goals. Both teams have scored in 18/24 matches, while OVER 2.5 totals are 17-7. After 32 goals were scored in Round 27, 40 were scored this past weekend in Round 28, good for average of four goals per game.

The matches are coming fast and furious in Serie A as Matchday 29 looks set to kick off on Tuesday, with ten matches across Tuesday-Thursday. Read on for our best bets from the round here.

Serie A Matchday 29 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Torino +0.5, +1 (-125) +355 O 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Lazio -0.5, -1 (+105) -135 U 2.5, 3 (-120)
Draw N/A +280 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Genoa +1, +1.5 (-120) +700 O 2.5, 3 (-110)
Juventus -1, -1.5 (EVEN) -245 U 2.5, 3 (-110)
Draw N/A +340 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bologna 0, -0.5 (-120) +105 O 2.5 (-115)
Cagliari 0, +0.5 (EVEN) +255 U 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +245 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Inter Milan -2 (-105) -700 O 3, 3.5 (EVEN)
Brescia +2 (-115) +1600 U 3, 3.5 (-125)
Draw N/A +600 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fiorentina -0.5 (+105) +105 O 2.5, 3 (-110)
Sassuolo +0.5 (-125) +250 U 2.5, 3 (-110)
Draw N/A +255 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Lecce 0, +0.5 (-105) +225 O 2.5, 3 (-110)
Sampdoria 0, -0.5 (-115) +115 U 2.5, 3 (-110)
Draw N/A +250 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
SPAL +0.5, +1 (+110) +475 O 2.5 (-115)
AC Milan -0.5, -1 (-130) -165 U 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +290 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Verona -0.5 (-105) -105 O 2, 2.5 (-115)
Parma +0.5 (-115) +310 U 2, 2.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +225 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Atalanta 0, -0.5 (-130) +105 O 3 (-105)
Napoli 0, +0.5 (+110) +245 U 3 (-115)
Draw N/A +265 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Roma -1 (EVEN) -190 O 2.5 (-120)
Udinese +1 (-120) +500 U 2.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +305 N/A

All odds taken June 29

Pick 1: Torino vs Lazio

Matchday 29 kicks off with Torino (14th) hosting Lazio (2nd) at 1:30 pm Tuesday afternoon. It’s a must-win game for Lazio if they hope to keep their title hopes alive as they look to close the four-point gap with first-place Juventus. Considering Juve will play 16th-place Genoa later in the afternoon, Lazio surely expect they’ll need the full three points to not fall further behind.

I Biancocelesti came out of the restart with a disappointing 3-2 loss to Atalanta but bounced back with a 2-1 win over Fiorentina on Saturday. However, La Viola were able to take an early lead and Lazio needed late goals in the 67′ and 83′ minutes to seal the win. They’ll be without head coach Simone Inzaghi on the sidelines as he was shown red at the end of the Fiorentina match.

When it comes to Torino this is now their fourth match since the restart. They drew 1-1 with Parma, edged out Udinese 1-0 and fell behind 3-0 to Cagliari on Saturday before eventually losing 4-2. Andrea Belotti has 11 goals on the year and has now scored in back-to-back matches but the Toros have been otherwise pretty dreadful.

They needed to hang on for their win over Udinese and that snapped a streak of seven winless matches in Serie A. Allowing four goals to Cagliari, who previously had just one win (1-0 vs SPAL with a 93rd minute winner) in their past 14 matches in all comps is equally concerning.

When you’re struggling against some of the league’s poorer sides, it’s hard to see them having much success against a Lazio side which has just a single loss in their past 23 Serie A matches. Lazio have scored multiple goals on 18 occasions during that stretch including a 4-0 win over Torino on October 30. Two of those goals may have come after Torino were reduced to ten men, but it was  still a convincing Lazio win nonetheless.

Lazio being priced at just -135 for the road win looks like a straightforward bet. Betting Lazio to score at least two goals is priced similarly and that’s where my bet will be for this one. Both of these prices have increased from -125 on Sunday.

Pick: Lazio to Score Over 1.5 Goals (-135)

Pick 2: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo

Two sides placed side-by-side in the table meet Wednesday at 3:45 pm EST at Fiorentina’s Artemio Franchi Stadium. Sassuolo in 12th with 34 points hold a slight advantage over 13th-place Fiorentina with 31 points. Both have a comfortable but not guaranteed lead over the relegated spots, with Lecce in 18th on 25 points.

Fiorentina came out of the league shutdown with a 1-1 draw to bottom side Brescia and followed that up with a 2-1 defeat to Lazio. La Viola took the lead early in the 25′ through Frank Ribery’s goal and were leading over second-place Lazio up until the 67′ when Ciro Immobile converted a penalty. The match looked like it may end drawn until Luis Alberto scored the winner in the 83′.

Sassuolo has now played three matches since the restart and all three have been full of goals. They returned with a 4-1 defeat to Atalanta and have followed that up with back-to-back 3-3 draws with Inter Milan and Verona. While a high-scoring affair with Inter may have been expected, and I’m not surprised we saw some goals in the Verona match this weekend either, six goals in that match was even more impressive considering they all came in the second half.

Verona are not typically a team that scores or allows much, but it didn’t matter against Sassuolo. The Neroverdi have both scored and conceded (48/49) the sixth-most goals in the league. Only Atalanta has seen more games go OVER 2.5 than Sassuolo.

And while Fiorentina are only 14-14 in OVER 2.5 totals and have only scored 34 goals on the year, the open style that Sassuolo plays should give La Viola their fair share of chances.

Fiorentina has scored at least once goal in 11/14 recent Serie A matches, while Sassuolo has scored in 23/28 matches all season. After three games where they’ve scored seven and conceded ten, I see little reason to go against that trend here.

When these teams met in October it was Jeremie Boga giving Sassuolo an early first half lead, but goals by Gaetano Castrovilli and Nikola Milenkovic in the second half gave Fiorentina the 2-1 win.

This is not a great price but backing both teams to score looks like the best bet for me. For a little better value the BTTS and OVER 2.5 is offered at +110 odds.

Pick: Both teams to score (-163)

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Pick 3: Atalanta vs Napoli

The final two games of the round take place on Thursday with fourth place Atalanta hosting sixth place Napoli in the first of the matches kicking off at 1:30 pm EST.

This one easily looks like the game of the week with both teams inside the top six and each in blistering form.

Atalanta have now won eight matches in a row across all competitions and six-straight in the league. Since the restart they posted a huge 3-2 comeback victory over second-place Lazio and followed that up with another 3-2 win on the weekend over Udinese. La Dea were quick out the gates on Sunday scoring just eight minutes into play but Udinese were able to draw level before halftime. However, second-half substitute Luis Muriel made the difference with two goals within eight minutes to pace Atalanta to the win.

Napoli entered the restart off the back of a Coppa Italia championship over Juventus. Since, they were 2-0 winners  over Hellas Verona and 3-1 winners over SPAL. On Sunday they also jumped out to quick lead over SPAL with Dries Mertens scoring four minutes into the match.

Much like Atalanta, they gave up the lead when SPAL levelled the score at 1-1 in the 29′ minute, but still took a 2-1 lead into the half with José Callejon’s marker in the 36′. Amin Younes would score Napoli’s third in the 71′ minute to solidify the win.

Napoli are now undefeated in their past nine matches across all comps and have won five-straight in Serie A.

Much like last week’s Atalanta vs Lazio match, there really only looks to be one way to bet this one. And that is to bet goals. La Dea are the league’s highest scorers with 80 goals, but their open-style of play leaves them easily exposed on defense. In recent matches they’ve conceded to the likes of Fiorentina, Roma, Sassuolo and twice to Genoa, Lecce, Lazio and even Udinese on Sunday. Consider that Udinese are the league’s second-lowest scorers with just 23 goals.

Napoli have struck 46 times on the season while allowing 37. Napoli’s last eight in the league have seen both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 totals cashing in 6/8. While Atalanta has seen a similar trend in each of their past seven Serie A results.

When these sides met earlier this year they shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw. It was the fifth time in six meetings both sides scored and OVER 2.5 goals were scored.

If Napoli have any thoughts of reaching top four, it is this Atalanta side they need to catch so there is no questioning their motivation. While Atalanta will want to further distance themselves from the chasing pack and you simply can’t expect this side not to score. Anything other than a goal-fest would be shocking. I bet this on Sunday at -110 but we’ve now seen the price shorten to -125.

Pick: BTTS & Over 2.5 (-125)





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