Tuesday 9 June 2020

Opening Odds for Volkanovski vs Holloway Have “Blessed” at +165 to Win Back Featherweight Title


Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway

Alexander Volkanovski opened as a sizeable favorite over Max Holloway for their rematch at UFC 251. Photo Credit: @UFCEurope (Twitter)

  • Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway will run it back at UFC 251
  • Volkanovski beat Holloway at UFC 245 to claim the featherweight title
  • How will the odds change in the lead up to the fight?

Earlier today, UFC president Dana White announced the full card for UFC 251, which is set to take place on “Fight Island” (a.k.a. YAS Island) in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on July 11th. The card features three title fights including the rematch of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway for the featherweight belt.

Also on the card are Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns for the welterweight title and Peter Yan vs Jose Aldo for the vacant bantamweight title.

Volkanovski and Holloway fought at UFC 245 (Dec. 2019) where Volkanovski won by unanimous decision to win the featherweight title. Since then, it was rumored they would have an immediate rematch and now that it is official, opening odds have been released where Volkanovski opened as a sizeable favorite.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway Odds

Fighter Odds
Alexander Volkanovski -190
Max Holloway +165

*Odds taken June 9

Should They Have an Immediate Rematch?

Alexander Volkanovski dominated Max Holloway at UFC 245. He won all five rounds on one judge’s scorecard where it was 48-47 (three rounds to two) on the other two scorecards. Since the fight was all Volkanovski many wondered if they should even have an immediate rematch. But, “Blessed” is arguably the greatest featherweight of all-time and deserves a chance to reclaim his strap.

Volkanovski (21-1) is riding an 18-fight winning streak where he is a perfect 8-0 inside the Octagon. Before the win over Holloway, the Aussie beat Jose Aldo by decision, TKO’d Chad Mendes, and also has notable wins over Darren Elkins and Jeremy Kennedy.

Max Holloway (21-5) defended his featherweight title three times where he beat Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, and Frankie Edgar. He also moved up to lightweight in between the Ortega and Edgar fights to fight for the interim belt. But, he came up short against Dustin Poirier. In his career, the Hawaiian has notable wins over Aldo, twice, Ricardo Lamas, Jeremy Stephens, Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira among others.

How Will The Odds Change?

The fight will happen on July 11 so there is tons of time for the public to move this line but the opening odds to me are set high. There is no question Alexander Volkanovski should be favored given he won the first fight. Yet, Holloway is a fan-favorite and someone the fans love to bet on. The fight also was not a blowout by any means. So, all it takes is for Blessed to change a few things like checking the leg kicks and the entire fight changes.

When the fight was announced I thought the line would be Volkanovski at -160 with the comeback on Holloway at +130. That way you still get two-way action. With that line, there will be people that love the champs line while others love the plus-money on Holloway. So, I expect the line to drop. Meaning, if you like Holloway, I think the time to bet is right now. But, if you like Volkanovski I think the best bet is to wait closer to the fight when he becomes a smaller favorite.

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