Monday 8 June 2020

LSU’s Myles Brennan Opened at +900 Odds to Win 2020 Heisman; He’s Now +2650


LSU QB Myles Brennan throws the football

LSU QB Myles Brennan has seen a major drop in his 2020 Heisman odds. Is Joe Burrow’s replacement being overlooked? Photo from @BHollandSports (Twitter).

  • Joe Burrow’s replacement, Myles Brennan, has seen his Heisman odds fall to +2650
  •  The redshirt junior opened at +900 odds to win 2020 Heisman Trophy
  • Does Brennan have what it takes to contend for the Heisman?

The replacement for Joe Burrow at LSU isn’t getting much love in the 2020 Heisman odds. After opening at +900 win the trophy, Myles Brennan has seen odds plummet to +2650, on average.

Is Brennan’s major drop in the Heisman odds warranted? Is there any value betting on the LSU pivot to bring a second straight trophy to Death Valley?

2020 Heisman Odds

Player (Position, Team) Odds
Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State) +315
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +389
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma) +1125
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami) +1167
Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas) +1250
Jamie Newman (QB, Georgia) +1400
   Mac Jones (QB, Alabama) +1875
Sam Howell (QB, UNC) +2050
Chuba Hubbard (RB, OK State) +2125
Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson) +2150
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC) +2300
Myles Brennan (QB, LSU) +2650
Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M) +2650
Ian Book (QB, Notre Dame) +2675

Odds taken June 8th.

Brennan is Unproven 

One of the reasons Brennan is falling in the Heisman odds is because he’s simply unproven at the college level. The former four-star recruit has been in LSU’s system for three years and has patiently been waiting for an opportunity to start. He threw for 353 yards and completed 60 percent of his passes as Burrow’s backup in 2019.

Brennan also has the COVID-19 pandemic working against him. The lack of spring practices make it harder for him to build chemistry with his offensive line and receivers. Many of the other longshots in the Heisman odds are coming off incredible 2019 seasons and have proven they have the talent to be a contender in 2020.

LSU Suffered Big Offseason Losses

It’s going to be close to impossible for the Tigers to duplicate their incredible 2019 season that saw them go 13-0 and win a National Championship. They’re being listed at +850 odds to repeat due to major losses both on the field and on the sidelines.

Burrow gave constant credit to LSU’s terrific offensive line throughout his Heisman season. Brennan will have just one returning starter protecting him. Productive veterans Lloyd Cushenberry, Saahdiq Charles, Damien Lewis, and Adrian Magee are all gone.

Another major loss for LSU is the departure of the team’s passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach, Joe Brady. The 2019 Broyles Award winner (for best assistant coach in the country) was hired as offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers after helping the Tigers conclude the season with the top-rated offense in college football.

Brennan Has Tools To Succeed

While he has things working against him, Brennan has the skill to turn in a successful 2020 season. He played in a similar offense to LSU’s in high school, throwing for over 5,000 yards in two of his three years at powerhouse St. Stanislaus in Mississippi. He also demonstrated his accuracy by throwing just 11 interceptions in his junior and senior seasons.

Brennan won’t get Justin Jefferson back in 2020, but he will get to throw to projected 2021 top-10 NFL draft pick Ja’Marr Chase. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner (for most outstanding receiver) is currently viewed as the best wideout in the nation after exploding for a 1,780-yard, 20-touchdown season in 2019.

Brennan’s ability to build chemistry with his receivers and get accustomed to LSU’s offense will be critical to his success in 2020. There’s no doubting the talent is there, but with a lack of spring training and some key departures, he’s got a tough task in front of him.

Betting Advice

This major drop for Brennan in the Heisman odds tells you that the LSU QB may be getting overlooked heading into 2020. LSU should have another great offense and Brennan has the skill to put up some strong numbers.

Brennan’s path is similar to Burrow’s in that he had to wait for an opportunity. But it also took Burrow a year at LSU before he emerged as a legit Heisman contender. Brennan may need some time to build chemistry with his offense and adapt to being a collegiate starter.

With a very solid Heisman favorite in Justin Fields and some quality longshots, it’s best to hold off betting Brennan. The lack of spring training and LSU’s offseason losses are making oddsmakers doubt Brennan. If he happens to takeoff earlier than expected in 2020 and shows Heisman potential, there should still be plenty of longshot value to pounce on circa Week 3 or 4.

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