Thursday 11 June 2020

Key Matches for European Placings & Relegation Highlight Weekend


Wout Weghorst

Wout Weghorst leads the line for Wolfsburg in their Europa League hopes against Freiburg this weekend. Photo by @hat_trick (Twitter)

  • Bundesliga Matchday 31 kicks off Friday afternoon, with nine matches this weekend
  • Important matches in fights for European spots and relegation battles on tap
  • Odds for each game on Matchday 31 plus our best bets for the card follow below

Just four rounds remain in the German Bundesliga season and while Bayern Munich have all but locked up the title, several matches this week have serious implications for Champions Leauge, Europa League and relegation places.

Let’s give another quick update on some stats since the league resumed. Once again home teams struggled last week only winning two matches and now having a 10-14-22 (WDL) record. Both teams have scored in 24/46 matches and OVER 2.5 totals are 25-21 and OVER 3.5 totals are 18-28. Last week was an unusably low-scoring week in the league with only two games going OVER 2.5 and only one going OVER 3.5.

Let’ take a look at this weekend’s card and isolate some best bets below.

Bundesliga Matchday 31 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hoffenheim +1.5, +2 (-180) +500 O 3.5 (-110)
RB Leipzig -1.5, -2 (+150) -230 U 3.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +400 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
FC Koln 0 (-225) EVEN O 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Union Berlin 0 (+185) +275 U 2.5, 3 (-120)
Draw N/A +245 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fortuna Dusseldorf +1 (+155) +650 O 3, 3.5 (EVEN)
Borussia Dortmund -1 (-185) -280 U 3, 3.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +400 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hertha Berlin 0 (-175) +105 O 3 (EVEN)
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 (+145) +230 U 3 (-125)
Draw N/A +265 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Paderborn +0.5, +1 (-200) +205 O 2.5, 3 (-120)
Werder Bremen -0.5, -1 (+165) +115 U 2.5, 3 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +275 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Vfl Wolfsburg -1, -1.5 (+170) -145 O 2.5, 3 (-105)
Freiburg +1, +1.5 (-210) +365 U 2.5, 3 (-115)
Draw N/A +285 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bayern Munich -1.5 (-105) -305 O 3.5 (EVEN)
Borussia Monchengladbach +1.5 (-115) +650 U 3.5 (-120)
Draw N/A +450 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Mainz 0, +0.5 (-210) +125 O 2.5 (-120)
Augsburg 0, -0.5 (+170) +205 U 2.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +245 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Schalke 04 +0.5 (+160) +475 O 2.5, 3 (-115)
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 (-190) -190 U 2.5, 3 (-105)
Draw N/A +335 N/A

Odds taken June 10

Pick 1: Hertha Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt

One of five matches to kick off at 9:30 am EST Saturday morning sees mid-table sides Hertha Berlin (9th) hosting Eintracht Frankfurt (11th).

It’s an interesting match in that neither side necessarily has much to play for as the season winds down. Both are likely out of contention for European placings and both look to be out of relegation danger.

Hertha still has an outside shot of catching sixth-place Wolfsburg for a Europa League place, however, those hopes took a big blow when they fell 1-0 to Borussia Dortmund last weekend. The loss snapped Hertha’s run of six matches undefeated, including four-straight since the restart. It also snapped a run of six matches that had seen Hertha score in every match.

In fact, they had scored multiple goals in each of those six matches and had outscored opponents 11-2 since the league resumed. That, prior to Saturday’s defeat which saw Emre Can score in the 57′ minute for the game’s lone goal. Hertha had just 36.2-percent possession and registered just one shot on goal.

For Eintracht, they came out of the break in poor form but rebounded with points in two of three, including back-to-back wins. That run ended on the weekend when they fell 2-0 at home to Mainz. The shutout defeat also ended a streak which had seen Frankfurt score in five-straight matches and ended a run of nine-straight OVER 2.5 goal totals cashing in their matches.

Perhaps Frankfurt was looking ahead to their key midweek match against Bayern Munich in the DFB-Pokal Semifinals. Frankfurt traveled to Allianz Arena on Wednesday with a chance to advance to the finals as huge underdogs to Bayern Munich.

While the expected result occurred, an early Bayern goal and an eventual win, Eintracht did keep the game close and drew level in the 69′ minute. Bayern Munich were quick to respond though with a Robert Lewandowski goal just five minutes later which would prove to be the game-winner. The goal was initially called back for offside but upon review was allowed to stand.

Frankfurt were always going to struggle especially without the services of their leading assist man Filip Kostic who had been suspended from the previous round, but they did put forth a good account of themselves.

Not counting a friendly this year (2-1 Hertha win), the last competitive match between Hertha Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt was earlier this season which resulted in a 2-2 draw. Last year the teams played to lower-scoring results, with Hertha winning 1-0 at home and the teams drawing 0-0 at Commerzbank-Arena in Frankfurt.

I like the odds here for a Hertha win. They have a little more to play for with a slim shot at a Europa League spot and were in splendid form prior to last week’s defeat. Frankfurt will be playing on short rest and surely won’t be in the highest of spirits having failed to score against the lowly Mainz last week and having come up short in the cup tournament in midweek.

Pick: Hertha Berlin win (+105)

Pick 2: Paderborn vs Werder Bremen

This may not look like a big game at 9:30 am EST Saturday morning, but it’s an important relegation scrap at the bottom of the table.

With only four matches remaining in the season it’s now or never for 17th-place Weder Bremen (25 points) and 18th-place Paderborn (20 points). Both are currently in the direct relegation spots and are chasing Fortuna Dusseldorf in 16th with 28 points or possibly 15th-place Mainz with 31.

It seems very unlikely Paderborn will be able to save themselves from the drop but they have mostly put forth respectable efforts since the restart. They returned to play with three-straight draws but were then routed 6-1 by Borussia Dortmund two matchdays ago. Saturday looked to be another long day for Steffen Baumgart’s side when they traveled as massive underdogs to RB Leipzig. However, despite falling behind early, they held on and scored the tying goal at the death in the 92′ minute to escape with a 1-1 draw.

When it comes to Werder Bremen, Die Grün-Weißen still have every opportunity to at least catch Dusseldorf but have done themselves no favors with back-to-back defeats, 3-0 to Eintracht Frankfurt and 1-0 to Wolfsburg last weekend. The losses ended a streak which saw them collect seven points in three games. Failure this weekend, followed by a likely defeat to Bayern Munich on Matchday 32, could sink their hopes of safety.

These sides have only met in three previous competitive matches and two of those came in the 2014/15 season. That leaves us really only with their encounter earlier this campaign for a recent reference. On Matchday 14 in December Paderborn were 1-0 winners on the road through a late 90′ minute winner from Sven Michel. Werder held the advantage in possession (54%-46%), but Paderborn had the edge in attempts (16-12) and shots on target (5-3).

I find very little to get excited about with either of these sides and both rank in the bottom two in goals scored in the Bundesliga. Bremen have scored just five goals in six matches since the restart while Paderborn have scored just three. The value is definitely on a Paderborn win (+205) or the draw (+275), but backing UNDER 2.5 goals should also be considered.

Pick: UNDER 2.5 (+110)

2020 La Liga Trophy Odds Tracker

Pick 3: Wolfsburg vs Freiburg

Another underrated match for the weekend at 9:30 am EST Saturday morning sees sixth-place Wolfsburg hosting eighth-place Freiburg. The stakes are high as Wolfsburg holds the final Europa League spot and only leads seventh-place Hoffenheim by two points and their weekend opponents Freiburg by four.

Wolfsburg have alternated wins and losses since the league resumed play and were narrow 1-0 victors Sunday morning at home to Werder Bremen through Wout Weghorst’s team-leading 12th goal. While the trend would point to a loss this weekend, that isn’t enough for a blind bet on Freiburg. However, it is worrying that Wolfsburg have scored just twice in their past two matches—once against the usually generous Eintracht Frankfurt defense and again just once, and late on against the lowly Werder Bremen.

Their goal haul this season of 42 is only slightly better than Freiburg’s 39 and in fact both of these teams typically play out low-scoring affairs in the Bundesliga. A look at the form guide when it comes to game totals of 2.5, sees Freiburg at 15-15 and Wolfsburg at 16-14 to UNDER 2.5 totals. These teams are ranked 17th and 18th respectively in combined goals scored per game.

Freiburg were surprise 1-0 winners last Friday over Borussia Monchengladbach. It was their first win since the restart and only second in nine league games. The Breisgau-Brasilianer are 1-2-2 (WDL) since restarting and have scored five goals while conceding six in those five matches. Four of those five have seen UNDER 2.5 totals cash and three of the five have only seen one goal scored total.

Recent history has seen Freiburg undefeated in three against the Wolves, winning 1-0 this season, while winning 3-1 and drawing 3-3 last year.

The fixture list is quickly coming to a close and while both sides will surely want all three points on offer, it’s also possible neither (especially Wolfsburg) would be too disappointed in a cagey stalemate.

Freiburg have remaining matches against Hertha Berlin, Bayern Munich and Schalke though, so the opportunities for wins are running out. Wolfsburg share some similar opponents in Schalke and Bayern Munich in their final two matchdays, but arguably have a tougher end to the season with an upcoming match against Borussia Monchengladbach next week.

I can see this match ending drawn or one side just barely nicking the win.

Pick: UNDER 2.5 (+110)





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