Most people believe roulette is totally random and cant be beaten. And most people have no real experience. But in fact, roulette is the easiest game to beat in casinos. By far. And here I’ll explain how.
The Biggest Myth in Roulette
It’s a very common myth that if roulette could be beaten, it wouldn’t exist. It sounds reasonable, because casinos only make money from losing players. But there’s much more to the story.
Less than 1% of roulette players consistently win. I’m not talking about a few lucky wins. I’m talking about players who win consistently enough to earn a living. And all of these winners must deliberately limit winnings to avoid detection. Because if they’re detected, the casino wont allow their wins to continue. The player can easily be banned, but this is only a last resort.
How Statisticians See Roulette
From the player’s perspective, roulette is about a spinning roulette wheel and ball. And this perspective is correct.
However, statisticians are the brains of casinos, and they see roulette differently. Their focus is primarily ODDS VS PAYOUT. They consider the odds of an event, and determine the payout to players. In roulette, there are 37 numbers on the single 0 wheel. So the odds of winning a single-number bet are 1 in 37. But the payout is only 35-1, which is unfair. Sites like Kasinohai list many casinos, but the payouts of games are the same.
Yes you probably know the basics of roulette. My point here is statisticians don’t focus on how the winning number is determined. They aren’t really looking at whether or not it’s possible to win roulette. Their job is to ensure that if game outcomes are presumably “random and unpredictable”, then the casino has an in-built advantage. This is the “house edge”.
A statistician’s job in the gaming industry is not just to determine winning payouts though. They focus mostly on developing software that analyzes data for casinos, to optimize profits. It’s the job of casino staff to apply that technology. That’s another matter though.
My point here is all gambling games are essentially ODDS VS PAYOUT. They have the odds of an event happening, and the payout if casino players win by betting on an event.
Whether the event is from the draw of a card, the roll of a dice, or the bounce of a ball, the fundamentals of odds vs payout are the same.
Which Casino Games Are Profitable?
At first glance, the roulette wheel and ball looks unpredictable. You don’t know when or where the ball will fall. And even when it falls, how do you know where it will bounce? So it all seems totally random. But it isn’t.
Is roulette more random than the shuffle of cards?
NO. Modern automated shuffle machines do a great job at randomizing cards. This is especially because they are continuously shuffled, and don’t give card counters a chance for an advantage.
The exception is with particular and more vulnerable casino procedures, and lower-quality card-shuffling technology. Even then, the edge of a card-counter may be only +1%.
Is roulette more random than the roll of a dice?
NO. Because in a game like Craps, each dice must hit the bumpers at the end of the table. These are sets of rubber diamond-shaped teeth, which randomize how a dice rolls and bounces.
The exception is controlled die shooting (called “dice setting”), in combination with poorly-trained casino staff, and poor casino equipment, can give Craps players an advantage. But even then, the player’s advantage may only be +0.5%.
The two standout casino games are Poker and Roulette. And these are usually the games that are most profitable in casinos. I say “usually” because the variables that determine a “winning event” are different everywhere.
For example, in Craps, variables may be:
- Incompetence or laziness of particular staff to enforce rules requiring each dice to hit the bumper.
- The quality of the bumpers.
- The quality of the dice, and any imperfections.
In the “Big Wheel” game (a big “wheel of fortune” style wheel), variables may be:
- Specific pins may be looser than others, creating a different amount of friction as the wheel spins. This causes some areas of the big wheel to win more than others.
- Specific croupiers exhibiting more predictable spins.
My point is different games, different casinos, and different gaming equipment are all different. The best advantage players (professional players) are prepared to exploit any advantage or opportunity, regardless of the game. But most professional players prefer to stick to particular games. After all, its easier to focus on one casino game at a time.
Slightly “Better Than Random” Makes a Big Difference
The winning numbers are determined by many different variables. But the main variables are the wheel, the ball, and the dealer. As explained earlier in this article, understand all casino games are fundamentally ODDS VS PAYOUT.
You can’t change payouts, because they are rules of the game. But you can change your ODDS of winning, IF you predict the winning number even with just “slightly better than random” accuracy.
To illustrate this, consider “random odds” of winning on a single bet are 1 in 37. So if you randomly guess the winning number, you’ll average 1 win in 37 spins. Compare the results below for two different situations:
The results for betting on 1,000 spins with “random accuracy” (1 in 37)
Win rate: 1 in 37 spins
Unit size: $100
Expected “average” wins: 27.027 per 1,000 spins
Result: $2,703 LOSS
Edge: -2.7% (the house edge)
But now imagine using some form of analysis to only slightly increase your accuracy of predictions. Let’s say your predictions averaged 1 win per 35 spins instead of 1 in 37:
The results for betting on 1,000 spins with “slightly better than random accuracy” (1 in 35)
Win rate: 1 in 35 spins
Unit size: $100
Expected “average” wins: 28.57 per 1,000 spins
Result: $2,852 PROFIT
Edge: +2.85%
What These Results Mean
For a very slight increase in the accuracy of your predictions, you can make a big profit instead of a big loss. So it doesn’t take much to make roulette a profitable game. It’s the same case for ANY casino game, except roulette is by far the best overall game for professional players.
What Makes Roulette The Most Profitable Casino Game
I’ve developed all kinds of technology and systems to beat a variety of casino games. But I’ve always come back to and focused on roulette. This is because it’s far more profitable than any casino game.
Essentially this is because of how the winning number is determined, and the predictability of variables that determine the winning number. Remember, the main variables are the wheel, the ball, and the dealer.
Depending on the type of method you use to predict spins, the dealer may be completely irrelevant, or highly relevant.
For example, no matter how fast the dealer spins the ball, they don’t change the deceleration rate of the ball. And the dealer can’t change which diamonds the ball hits most. You can prove this for yourself by tracking which diamonds the ball hits most for one dealer, then comparing results with other dealers. So clearly dealers don’t change the physical anomalies of the wheel and ball. And the wheel and ball are major factors contributing to the winning number.
Conclusion
The key thing to understand is roulette spins are not impossibly unpredictable, as most people believe. In fact it’s almost impossible for spins to be completely unpredictable. Wheel designers try all kinds of modifications, but complete unpredictability is almost impossible. Very often, spins are at least predictable enough to achieve a slight advantage. And that’s all you need to profit consistently – even over tens of thousands of spins.
It doesn’t end there though. Because roulette wheels are far from perfect. In fact they’re full of problems and design flaws that often make spins incredibly predictable, if you know what you’re doing. You may not beat all wheels, but you’ll beat more than enough wheels. For the time you invest as a professional player, you can earn far more than any normal job.
Once you know more about predicting roulette spins, you’ll understand an edge of 2% or so is very easily achieved. Keep in mind this isn’t a small edge. Card counters have made millions with an edge of just 1%. Also keep in mind casinos normally have a 2.7% edge over players in roulette, but casinos can make millions from a single roulette table.
In fact, roulette spins are often so predictable that an edge of over +150% are possible, with devices like roulette computers. But you don’t need hidden electronic devices to profit from roulette. It’s easily possible to earn a fortune with just a 2% edge, without any electronic devices – and with completely legal techniques.
So instead of roulette being impossible to beat (as most people believe), its in fact by far the most “beatable” game in casinos – to the point where professional players deliberately limit winnings to avoid detection.
Professional roulette players eventually find that beating wheels isn’t particularly difficult. And winning roulette isn’t difficult. The real problem is avoiding detection by the casino staff, because they have the ability to take steps to make winning more difficult. For example, they can take steps like change wheels, or even ban you. Still it’s not difficult to earn substantial sums without being detected. This is the only reason why typical professional players win only around $300k, rather than millions each year.
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