Monday, 19 October 2020

Rays vs Dodgers Odds, Lines, and Picks for World Series Game 1


Tyler Glasnow throwing a pitch for Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Rays have announced that Tyler Glasnow will start Game 1 of the 2020 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Image from @nypostsports (Twitter).

  • The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in the 2020 World Series
  • Tyler Glasnow starts tomorrow for the Rays while Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers
  • Game 1 starts at 8:09 pm ET at Globe Life Park in Texas on Tuesday, October 20th

It’s official: the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 World Series.

The teams arrive here after two thrilling League Championship Series. Tampa avoided disaster, downing the Astros in Game 7 after leading the series 3-0. LA was able to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Braves, heading to their third World Series in four years.

The Fall Classic will be played entirely at Globe Life Park in Texas. Game 1 begins at 8:09 pm on Tuesday (October 20th).

Rays vs Dodgers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Tampa Bay Rays (T. Glasnow) +138 +1.5 (-159) Over 8.0 (-113)
Los Angeles Dodgers -162 -1.5 (+135) Under 8.0 (-108)

Odds as of Oct 17th from DraftKings.

Los Angeles was favored in every game of the NLCS against the Braves. With an MLB-best 43 wins in 2020, it makes sense that the Dodgers are favored in Game 1.

Three of the seven games in the NLCS finished under this Game 1 total of 8.0, with the offensive explosion coming in the middle of the series. In the ALCS, six of the seven games finished under, but three of those games saw a combined seven runs.

Glasnow to Face Kershaw in Game 1

Blake Snell and Charlie Morton started Games 6 and 7 for the Rays, which means Tyler Glasnow gets the start in Game 1. Glasnow started 11 games in 2020, finishing with a 4.08 ERA. His struggles were early on, as he had a 3.00 ERA over his last seven regular-season starts.

Clayton Kershaw started Game 4 for the Dodgers. With Walker Buehler starting Game 6, and three Dodger starters appearing in Game 7, the opening assignment falls to him by default.  He carried a 2.16 ERA through 10 regular season starts, but his playoff struggles cropped up again.

Glasnow vs Kershaw: 2020 MLB Postseason

4 Starts 3
2-1 Record 2-1
19.1 Innings Pitched 19.0
4.66 ERA 3.32
17 Hits 16
25 Strikeouts 23
8 Walks 2
1.29 WHIP 0.95

Kershaw’s worst start of the 2020 playoffs came in Game 5 against the Braves, although he was cruising until the sixth.

The first two times through the Braves’ lineup, Kershaw gave up four hits (one home run), one walk, struck out four, and got two double plays. Things fell apart in the sixth, when he gave up three hits to open the inning.

Glasnow’s results have been even more mixed. His first start was dominant, but then he got touched up for four runs in five innings against New York. He opened for 2.1 innings after that, and in Game 4 against Houston he gave up four runs in six innings.

Arozarena, Seager Red-Hot in October

It’s not surprising that the Championship Series MVPs will open the World Series in the spotlight.

While both have been good throughout the playoffs, they took their games to new heights within the last week.

Arozarena vs Seager: LCS Comparison

9/28 H/AB 9/29
.321 Batting Average .310
6 Runs 8
4 Home Runs 5
6 RBI 11
.367 On-Base Percentage 0.333
.786 Slugging Percentage .897
1.152 OPS 1.230

Three of Randy Arozarena’s four home runs came against right-handed pitchers, while four of Corey Seager’s five came against lefties. Seeing as Glasnow is a righty and Kershaw a lefty, this initially plays against the pair’s recent trends.

But in 2020, the lefty Seager hit right-handers at a .322 clip with 11 homers in 143 at-bats. The Dodgers hit .259 as a team vs RHP with 91 home runs against righties.

Arozarena crushed lefties in 2020, hitting .400 against them with four homers in the regular season. Tampa hit the third-most home runs (28) against left-handers, but batted just .237.

Home Sweet Home for Dodgers

While the Rays have had an extra day of rest, the Dodgers are fresh off of seven games in a row at Globe Life Park. While it is a minor one, familiarity with the ballpark is definitely an advantage.

The Dodgers are 1-1 in Game 1s from their previous trips to the World Series, while the Rays haven’t been here since 2008. Expect a strong statement from the Dodgers to open things up.

The Pick: LA Dodgers (-162)

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