Burnley v Tottenham
Monday 26 October, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Clarets off colour
Burnley finished the post-lockdown season well but have hit a trough in the new campaign, registering just one point from their first four matches.
Sean Dyche has been through this sort of bad patch before and turned their form around, but the rumblings of discontent from the manager suggest the malaise may be deeper than in previous seasons.
Phil Bardsley is still unavailable following his positive coronavirus test and fellow full-back Erik Pieters is doubtful with a calf injury. Matt Lowton could return after an ankle injury.
‘Spursy’ tinge to early form
Tottenham had a morale-boosting 3-0 home win in the Europa League on Thursday night but Jose Mourinho and his players will still be smarting from the shock turnaround at home to West Ham in their last Premier League match.
Having led 3-0 after 16 minutes, Spurs were pegged back to 3-3 inside the last 10 minutes through a mix of lax defending, misses by their own forwards and a worldie from Manuel Lanzini for West Ham’s equaliser.
That followed the 6-1 away win at Manchester United and their up-and-down performance levels, from match to match and within games, left Mourinho having to defend his team against accusations of being too ‘Spursy’.
Gareth Bale, having played the last 20 minutes against West Ham and the first hour on Thursday night, is in contention for his first start back in the Premier League. Mourinho must choose between Serge Aurier and Matt Doherty at right-back, while Eric Dier faces a fitness test.
This is only the second home match for Burnley, who lost the first 1-0 against Southampton. It is a concern that they have started so slowly given three of their first four Premier League games have been against teams who are likely to be mid-table at best.
The only top team they have faced in the Premier League is Leicester away, where they lost 4-2 on the opening weekend, although there is another measure of their possible level against Spurs in that they were also beaten 3-0 at home by Manchester City in the Carabao Cup.
Tottenham’s away form has been their strong point this season. As well as the massive win at Old Trafford, they won 5-2 at Southampton and their two Europa League away games have also brought high-scoring victories.
Across their four away games, Spurs have scored 16 goals and never less than two in a match. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min are the Premier League’s hottest combination, having scored 12 goals and had nine assists between them in the first five games.
At the other end, a troubling issue for Mourinho is that his side have conceded in all of their first five Premier League games. Thursday’s win to nil in the Europa League was the first time they had kept a clean sheet in 10 competitive matches this season.
Both teams have scored in eight of those 10 matches and that is a bet to consider at 5/61.87.
Better odds are available on a Tottenham win by a clear-cut margin on the Asian handicap. Given Burnley’s low-scoring trend this season, it looks possible for Tottenham to have another comfortable away win, although they will have to defend better against Burnley’s set-pieces.
The favoured bet is Tottenham off -1 on the Asian handicap at 2.13, which allows for some resistance from Burnley but ultimately an away win and by a possible wide margin.
Both teams are following established goals patterns.
Burnley had 53% under 2.5 goals in the Premier League last season (the same home and away) and this season’s figure is 50% after four games.
Tottenham had 61% over 2.5 goals last season (60% this season). On the road last season the figure rose to 68% and this season’s first two away games have brought a massive seven goals each time.
Son on a scoring streak
Opta point out that Kane has been directly involved in eight goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Burnley (6 goals, 2 assists), including a hat-trick at Turf Moor in December 2017.
But he has been more provider than scorer this season and the chief beneficiary has been Son. The Spurs hotshot looks a good cornerstone for a bet on the Sportsbook’s Same Game Multi, with Tottenham to win and Son to score available at 2.95.
Opta Stat
Tottenham have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League away games, both in goalless draws last season against relegated sides Bournemouth and Watford. A goalless draw is available at 15/116.0 here.
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/spurs-to-put-on-another-kane-and-son-show/
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