Thursday 27 February 2020

Trump’s Re-Election Odds Fade from -180 to -160 as Stock Market Plummets, Coronavirus Spreads


Donald Trump gersturing

The Dow Jones is plummeting, and for the first time since he was acquitted of impeachment, President Donald Trump’s odds of re-election are fading. Photo by The White House (Wikimedia).

  • A dip in the Dow Jones has coincided with Donald Trump’s re-election odds falling from -180 to -160 at one sportsbook
  • If coronavirus proves serious enough to cause a major economic downturn, is Trump in jeopardy?
  • A strong economy has long correlated with incumbents winning a second term

Donald Trump’s re-election bid might be infected by the coronavirus.

Fears of the potential damage that such a pandemic could bring to the world’s economy is causing negative ripples in the stock market. It may also be causing Trump’s odds of winning re-election in 2020 to fade.

Bovada moved Trump’s 2020 Presidential election odds from -180 to -160, the first time a sportsbook has made his odds worse in about a month.

2020 Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Odds at Bovada
Donald Trump -160
Bernie Sanders +300
Joe Biden +1000
Michael Bloomberg +1200
Pete Buttigieg +4000
Elizabeth Warren +10000
Hillary Clinton +10000
Mike Pence +15000
Michelle Obama +25000
Amy Klobuchar +30000
Nikki Haley +30000
Tulsi Gabbard +50000
John Kasich +50000
Deval Patrick +50000
Tom Steyer +50000
William (Bill) Weld +50000

Odds taken February 27th. 

Down Goes The Dow

Mounting fears about the coronavirus have the stock market hitting record-setting lows. Thursday, the Dow Jones index dropped 1,191 points, or 4.4%, its worst one-day point drop in history.

The S&P 500 posted its worst day since August 18, 2011, dropping 4.4%. The NASDAQ composite was down 4.6%.

All three major American financial indexes are headed for their worst week since the fall of 2008. That was in the midst of the global financial crisis.

Stock Market Crash Could Take Trump Down

If the stock market continues to tank, Trump’s days in the Oval Office could be numbered.

History says so.

Nearly a half-century ago, economist Arthur Okun established what’s become known as the misery index. In simple terms, it’s a barometer of how average Americans feel about the state of the country’s economy. It’s calculated by adding the unemployment rate and rate of inflation together.

It was at 7.4% when Trump took office in January of 2017. It had lowered to 5.785% by the end of 2019. However, it’s already climbed to 5.9% less than two months into 2020.

Why does this matter? Well, since Okun created this calculation, just one elected incumbent President has failed to win a second term in the White House when the misery index has gone down. That was Republican George HW Bush, who was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992.

Pandemic? There’s No Pandemic

Wednesday, Trump held a press conference. His objective was to downplay the danger of coronavirus. He insisted the outbreak was under control.

His words were the complete opposite of what the country’s top medical and disease-control experts have previously stated.

Naturally, Trump is trying to do everything he can to convince investors and the American public that all is well. Nothing will finish a President off like a tanking economy.

Coronavirus Could Be Trump’s Waterloo

Experts have often pondered what would happen if the Trump Administration were faced with a true global crisis. This might be it. And so far, things aren’t going well for him.

Trump made deep cuts to the Center for Disease Control, and fired the staff in charge of dealing with pandemics. Now, he’s scrambling to try and fix what he broke.

Trump doesn’t need to catch the Coronavirus to be impacted by it. If this illness proves to be as deadly as some are predicting, the coronavirus could catch Trump and bring him down.


This article may contain links to external sports betting services. SBD may receive advertising revenue from these links, however editorial has hand-picked each individual link based on relevance to the article, without influence on the coverage.

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