Thursday 27 February 2020

Heat Odds to Win Eastern Conference Fade to +1000 Amidst 1-3 Record Post All-Star Break


Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler

Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and the rest of the Miami Heat have stumbled out of the all-star break. Photo from @DimeUPROXX (Twitter).

  • Heat have dropped three of four post all-star break, surrendering more than 122 points a game
  • Miami’s Eastern Conference title odds have lengthened to +1000
  • Read below to find out if they are still a value bet to take the East

It’s the stretch run of the NBA season — but the Miami Heat seem to be stuck in neutral following the all-star break.

A deflating loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on their home court was probably the official cause for concern. Oddsmakers took notice too when reassessing the latest Eastern Conference Championship odds.

Odds to Win Eastern Conference

Team Odds at BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks -175
Boston Celtics +500
Toronto Raptors +800
Miami Heat +1000
Philadelphia 76ers +1000
Indiana Pacers +2500

*Odds from Feb 27

Just prior to all-star weekend, the Heat had enjoyed their best conference championship odds, at an average of +600, but since dropping three of their last four, they’ve dipped back to +1000. Let’s find out if there’s some value left in Miami, or if you should be wagering on another top East team.

Road Woes Hang Over All

The biggest issue for the Heat all season has been their sub-par play away from AmericanAirlines Arena. Just 13-18 on the road this year, seven of their last nine games have been away from home, and they have just a win over the lowly Golden State Warriors to show for it. They’re 2-7 over that stretch overall.

Out of the all-star break gate, those struggles were magnified with two truly ugly road losses to the dregs of the conference.

In their first game back against Atlanta, Trae Young went berserk, dropping 50 and the Hawks poured in 129 points to win. After beating Cleveland at home, the Heat proceeded to drop the second of a back-to-back to the same Cavaliers, giving up 125 in an overtime loss.

That’s two L’s to a pair of teams that have already combined for 84 losses on the season, and are closer to the top pick in next year’s draft than they are to the eighth seed in the East.

But those bad habits travelled home, in an unthinkable 129-126 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Coming into that game, Minny had lost 18 of their previous 19 games, while the Heat were tied with the Bucks for the second fewest home losses, with just three prior to this letdown.

Miami’s Trademark Defense Staggering

Looking at the Heat’s post all-star offensive figures, you’d think things were going smoothly. They’ve averaged better than 123 points a game vs 111+ pre all-star, while upping their three-point shooting to 39.3% and their field goal shooting to 48.4%. They’ve also pumped in six more assists per game (31.3) than prior to the break.

However, their defensive numbers are bent out of shape. Since the all-star break, they’re allowing more than 122 points a contest, and teams are feasting from beyond the arc, shooting at a 39% clip (up from 33.7% prior), while their lowly opposition has averaged better than 48% shooting from the field in the last four games.

Perhaps the most concerning is the fact that the Heat couldn’t close. In each of their three losses, Miami has had a win percentage probability of at least 90.7% in the fourth quarter of every game and lost each one.

What’s the Best Bet?

The Heat have always been a beast when fully loaded. Perhaps no team is more complete and more daunting when fielding a full lineup, but they’re just not there right now. Promising rookie Tyler Herro is still out with a foot injury, and Myles Leonard is out with an ankle injury, while Bam Adebayo is nursing an ankle injury and playing through the pain.

Throw in the integration of Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill and those missing pieces — while not exactly world-shaking — do force the other Heat role players to punch up a level they might not be ready for. It might be too much to ask Jimmy Butler to carry them at this point.

Currently, I have the East being decided by the Bucks or Raptors. But Miami has plenty of time to right the ship, and they legit have a shot of winning the East. Wager accordingly.

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