Joe Biden is projected to finish behind Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday, but well ahead of Mike Bloomberg. Photo by Gage Skidmore (wikimedia commons).
- Super Tuesday takes place on March 3rd and sees 1,344 delegates up for grabs
- Bernie Sanders is currently favored in the majority of the states voting on Super Tuesday
- Can Joe Biden parlay a win in South Carolina this Saturday into a big showing on Super Tuesday?
The race for the 2020 Democratic nomination is heating up as the candidates are set to fight for over 1,344 on Super Tuesday (March 3rd, 2020). First, we’ll have a primary in South Carolina, which could reshape the Democratic nomination odds before Super Tuesday arrives.
BetOnline has posted two sets of odds for Super Tuesday: (1) over/unders on total delegates for the candidates, and (2) over/unders on states won. Odds and analysis on each are contained below.
Before we dive into the numbers, it’s important to take into account Saturday’s primary in South Carolina. Former Vice President Joe Biden, re-energized his campaign this week with his best debate and an endorsement from . Biden is now heavily favored to win South Carolina, and that’s important.
If Biden wins South Carolina by a big margin – as the latest polls show – that will dull Bernie Sanders’ momentum and allow Biden to have a real shot in a lot of the Southern states on Super Tuesday. If Biden narrowly wins or loses South Carolina, Super Tuesday will be a disaster for him.
While Biden had been fading for a while, he’s now trending up and should win South Carolina, giving him enough momentum to be a big pain in Sanders’ side on Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday Total Delegates Odds
| Total Delegates Won By Bernie Sanders | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Over 582 | -120 |
| Under 582 | -120 |
| Total Delegates Won By Elizabeth Warren | Odds |
| Over 134 | -160 |
| Under 134 | +120 |
| Total Delegates Won By Joe Biden | Odds |
| Over 310 | -120 |
| Under 310 | -120 |
| Total Delegates Won By Michael Bloomberg | Odds |
| Over 210 | -170 |
| Under 210 | +130 |
| Total Delegates Won By Pete Buttigieg | Odds |
| Over 69 | -180 |
| Under 69 | +140 |
Odds updated Feb. 27th.
Based on the backdrop that I’ve laid out, what I’m expecting is a big Biden win in South Carolina. It’s relevant because we have no more debates until March 15th – after Super Tuesday – so between this Saturday and Super Tuesday, all we’re going to hear is how Biden is back in the race.
Remember, there are 63 delegates in South Carolina, so this is the biggest state so far. A Biden win changes the trajectory for Super Tuesday. If Biden gets 19 delegates on Saturday and Sanders gets about 12, the story is that the gap is narrowing and that Biden now has a shot.
With Sanders, it’s hard to bet the over-under as he’s right at the mark where I expect him to be. FiveThirtyEight’s projections show him at 578 if Biden has a big win in South Carolina. The edge here figures to be with Biden. If he does well, as we’re expecting, he should crush the 310-delegate over-under that’s set for him on Super Tuesday.
If Biden does really well in South Carolina, he could push for 400 delegates on Super Tuesday. In my view, he’s the only real value play here. Everyone else’s over-under seems right in the range where it’s expected to be.
Super Tuesday Primary Odds
| Total Primary Elections Won By Bernie Sanders | Odds at BetOnline |
|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -120 |
| Under 10.5 | -120 |
| Total Primary Elections Won By Joe Biden | Odds at BetOnline |
| Over 2.5 | -200 |
| Under 2.5 | +150 |
| Total Primary Elections Won By Michael Bloomberg | Odds at BetOnline |
| Over 1.5 | -240 |
| Under 1.5 | +165 |
Odds updated Feb. 27th.
This is the same story as before: we’re expecting a big day from Biden on Saturday, which should propel him to a big Super Tuesday. That means I would bet over 2.5 for Super Tuesday. With a big Saturday, he’ll probably do well in states like Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas.
Even with a small-to-narrow win on Saturday, Biden should still carry Tennessee and Alabama – at the very least. He’s pretty much right there in those states and is tied or ahead in North Carolina. However, any type of win in South Carolina should give him a bump. I’d bet over 2.5 with him.
As for Bernie, he’s a great bet if you think Biden does poorly in South Carolina. If Biden, in fact, struggles there, can’t win or doesn’t win, Sanders is going to run the table. He’ll easily get over 10.5.
This article may contain links to external sports betting services. SBD may receive advertising revenue from these links, however editorial has hand-picked each individual link based on relevance to the article, without influence on the coverage.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He’s interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O’Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/super-tuesday-total-delegate-odds-favor-biden-winning-100-more-than-bloomberg/
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