Saturday 29 February 2020

Dennis’ Moment Resumes Derby Quest as Favorite in Fountain of Youth


The Road to Kentucky Derby 146 goes back through Hallandale Beach, Fla., on Saturday for the running of the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The race marks the 3-year-old debut for one of the most talked about Derby prospects in this year’s class.

Dennis’ Moment will make his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park on Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. (Image: Eclipse Sportswire)

Dennis’ Moment is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in a field of 10 for Saturday’s race. In four races last year, he won twice, including the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, the first official Kentucky Derby qualifying points race. However, it’s his performance in his first win that generated the buzz around the Dale Romans-trained colt.

On July 27 at Ellis Park, Dennis’ Moment seized the moment, going wire-to-wire and pulling away to a stunning 19-1/2-length victory. The Equibase racing chart said it best: “Demolished field.”

But it’s been hit or miss with the colt as awful starts have cost him dearly in his other two races. In his debut race at Churchill Downs last June, another horse bumped into Dennis’ Moment at the start and that prompted him to toss his jockey and get disqualified.

He also ran in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, but as the 4-5 favorite, he stumbled out of the gate and never recovered to finish last in the race.

While it’s been almost four months since his last race, you can make the argument that the colt hasn’t raced since the Iroquois win more than five months ago. So it’ll be interesting to see what kind of performance he can produce.

Saturday’s race will also mark the first time jockey Flavien Prat will ride Dennis’ Moment, who will break from the fifth gate.

Dennis Not the ‘Underdog’

Romans typically tries to avoid hyping his horses, but he makes an exception for his Kentucky Derby contender.

I usually like being the underdog because there’s not much pressure,” Romans said. “With this horse, there’s so much hype with him – well deserved, he’s very talented. I put the pressure on myself because of what I think of him. I think he’s ready to roll.”

While the Fountain of Youth field is deep, it’s more quantity over quality. Still, there are a few challengers to Dennis’ Moment who are making their graded stakes debut.

As Seen On Tv is coming off of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 4. In that mile race, the Kelly Breen-trained colt dueled down the final quarter-mile with Chance It, with the latter horse finally winning by a head.

As Seen On Tv, trained by Kelly Breen and ridden by Paco Lopez, is at 9-2 and starts from the sixth gate.

Chance It had been scheduled to run and break from the far outside gate. However, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. announced early Saturday afternoon he’s pulling his colt from the Fountain of Youth. The plan now is to run him in next week’s Tampa Bay Derby instead.

Field Includes Graded Stakes Winner Shotski

Two other entries have graded stakes experience and could be value picks if their odds remain high.

Shotski is coming down from Aqueduct, where he won the Grade II Remsen Stakes in December and finished second in the Grade III Withers four weeks ago. Shotski led up until the stretch in the Withers, but he faded in the 1-1/8-mile race. The Fountain of Youth is a sixteenth shorter, so it might work in the Jeremiah O’Dwyer-trained colt’s favor.

Ridden by John Velazquez, Shotski will start from the 10th gate with odds of 10-1. Like Dennis’ Moment, Shotski will race carrying 124 pounds, the heaviest weight in the race. Chance It and As Seen On Tv will race two pounds lighter.

Racing at 120 pounds is Ete Indien. Trained by Patrick Biancone and ridden by Florent Geroux, Ete Indien is coming off a second place showing in the Holy Bull to Tiz the Law on Feb. 1 at Gulfstream. He led early in the race but gave way to one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders down the stretch. He did, however, finish 11-1/2-lengths ahead of the third-place finisher.

Ete Indien will break from the 11th gate and has odds of 8-1.

The winner of Saturday’s race will earn 50 points toward the Kentucky Derby. That was more than enough points to gain entry into the Run for the Roses last year and should be the case this year. The horse finishing second will earn 20 points, which will certainly help their cause and likely position that horse to run in a late March or early April final prep race.

Post time for the race is scheduled for 6:04 pm ET and will air on Fox Sports 2. Information on the full field is available at Equibase.



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Las Vegas Is Experiencing COVID-19 Fallout as 2 Conferences Cancelled


Las Vegas, one of the largest convention destinations in the US, is feeling some effects from the spread of the novel coronavirus as the White House and Google canceled conferences slated to take place in Sin City in March.

Nevada has no known cases, but the coronavirus is affecting Las Vegas convention business. (Image: MeetingSource.com)

On Friday, Trump Administration officials said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN summit, scheduled for Mach 14 in Las Vegas, has been scrapped due to the COVID-19 outbreak and related travel restrictions.

The White House didn’t confirm whether or not President Trump planned to participate in the summit, but he skipped the event the past two years when it was held outside the US and it’s unusual for the leader of the host nation to not be in attendance. The ASEAN nations – several of which have documented cases of the virus – are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Trump said Friday that there 15 cases of the virus in the US.

And a lot of that is because we called it early,” said the president to reports prior to bordering Marine One to fly to South Carolina for a campaign rally. “We — we were — we made a decision very early to close up our borders to certain areas of the world and we did that.  And so we are hopefully getting lower from that number, but let’s see what happens into the future.”

KTNV Las Vegas reported that California-based Google decided to scuttle an internal sales and marketing conference scheduled for March after a staffer located in Zurich contracted the coronavirus.

Leaving Las Vegas?

On Friday, Gov. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) convened a group of local, state, federal, and tribal officials in Las Vegas to prepare for a possible COVID-19 outbreak in Nevada, though he noted there is not a confirmed case of the respiratory illness in the Silver State.

Convention business is big business for Sin City. Meetings and conferences brought 6.64 million visitors to the gaming hub last year, according to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA). In 2019, March was the fifth-busiest month of the year for convention business in the city.

News of the ASEAN and Google cancellations comes as some operators are boosting available conference space. For example, Caesars Entertainment Corp. (NASDAQ:CZR) is expected to open the Caesars Forum conference center in March – a 550,000-square foot venue for which the company has already booked $100 million worth of business and 240,000 guest nights.

There are also concerns that the epidemic could impact Vegas hosting the 2020 NFL Draft, scheduled for April on the Strip. Sisolak said officials are working with the LVCVA regarding specific events, but he declined to get into hypotheticals.

“I want to assure all of you that we will continue sharing information and working with our Members of Congress and U.S. Senators to ensure that Nevadans remains safe and protected as this situation develops,” said the governor.

Plenty of Cancellations

With news of the Sin City confabs being scrapped and some other recent postponements, the number of major meetings that have been canceled around the world since the COVID-19 epidemic started has swelled past 30, dealing a blow to the $2.5 trillion global conference industry.

On Friday, it was revealed that the Game Developers Conference (GDC) – a marquee annual event for the video game industry – is being postponed. The event was originally scheduled for March 16 to March 20 in San Francisco.

“As everyone has been reminding us, great things happen when the community comes together and connects at GDC,” said organizers in a statement issued Friday. “For this reason, we fully intend to host a GDC event later in the summer. We will be working with our partners to finalize the details and will share more information about our plans in the coming weeks.”

The Geneva Motor Show has also been canceled, forcing some European automakers, such as BMW, Daimler and Porsche, to unveil new models in digital fashion.



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Macau Stung Again as 24 Airlines Cancel March Flights


Twenty-four Asian airlines are canceling March flights to and from Macau due to the novel coronavirus, dealing a severe blow to an already fragile local economy that only recently reopened gaming properties following a 15-day closure.

In another blow to Macau’s recovery efforts, 24 airlines are canceling March flights in and out of the peninsula. (Image: Macau Business)

The Macau International Airport confirmed that the following carriers are scrapping flights in and out of the Special Administrative Region (SAR) next month: Air Macau, Jejuair, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Air Asia, Eva Airways, Air Busan, Shanghai Airlines, Long Air, Hainan Airlines, Tiger Air Taiwan, Starlux Airlines, Jin Air, Xiamen Airlines, Philippines Airlines, Bamboo Airways, Tiger Airways, Tway Air, Vietnam Airlines, Easter Jet, Shenzhen Airlines, Cebu Pacific Air, Spring Airlines.

News of the March flight cancellations comes as Macau is already grappling with strict travel and visa controls that are sapping gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.

We assume GGR to drop about 55 percent in the first quarter,” said JPMorgan analysts in a note out earlier this week. “Profits will inevitably decline faster than the top line, given the rigid cost structure – a maximum 15 percent to 20 percent of operating expenditure is subject to cost containment.”

Gaming properties on the peninsula have been slowly reopening since Feb. 19, but it’s still far from business as usual due to border screenings, policies within casinos limiting the number of players at tables and slot machines and Beijing continuing to restrict the number of Macau visitation visas issued to residents of mainland China, the primary source of the SAR’s gamblers.

Big Cities Affected

According to data published by the Macau International Airport, some arriving flights to the peninsula to Asian cities will be scuttled from March 1 through March 28. Others have cancellation windows of just a few days up to two weeks.

Potentially dragging on Macau’s recovery efforts are the Chinese cities affected by the temporary flight bans, a group that includes major metropolitan areas such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Compounding the peninsula’s woes are the other Asian cities subject to the cancellations, which include Bangkok, Jakarta, Kuala Lampur, Seoul and Taipei.

The aforementioned group includes some of the region’s biggest carriers. For example, China Southern and China Eastern are Asia’s two largest airlines while Air Asia, Lion Air and Vietnam Airlines are also among the top 25 in terms of annual passengers carried.

Weak Backdrop

The flight cancellations come at a perilous time for the gaming-dependent Macau economy. Data released Friday indicate the SAR’s economic output contracted 8.1 percent in the fourth quarter – prior to the COVID-19 outbreak – nearly double the originally forecast contraction of 4.4 percent. Last year, Macau’s economy decreased by 4.9 percent.

The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) is expected to release February GGR figures in the coming days, a report industry analysts are anticipating will be dismal.

JPMorgan said first- and second-quarter earnings reports from Macau operators “will be of little importance given the virtual lack of earnings” and that a recovery there may not materialize in earnest until the last three months of this year.



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PokerNews Week in Review: Phil Galfond Returns, Eric Afriat Wins 3rd WPT Title & guest Tana Karn | Videos


Jeff Platt & Chad Holloway chat with Tana Karn, the president of the [B]RunGood Poker Series (RGPS), about taking his tour out west to Jamul Casino and being nominated for “Mid-Major Tour of the Year.”

They also discuss Phil Galfond returning to the “Galfond Challenge,” Eric Afriat winning his third WPT title, recapping the WSOP Circuit Rio, and highlights from the Parx Big Stax XXXII.

This week’s sponsors: GG Poker, Oddschecker US, and Run It Once.

Time Stamps
00:04 | Welcome to the show
00:44 | Teasing guest RGPS President Tana Karn
01:05 | Sponsor: Run It Once; Phil Galfond is coming back
03:43 | Eric Afriat captures third WPT title
05:17 | A look at the WPT LAPC Main Event
07:53 | More events pop up on 2020 WSOP schedule
12:13 | Recapping the WSOP Circuit Rio
17:03 | Sponsor: GG Poker w/ Daniel Negreanu
18:97 | RGPS first stop on West Coast; Jeff’s experience at Jamul Casino
20:25 | Guest Tana Karn joins the show
23:43 | Player reaction to RGPS holding stop out west
26:02 | The “Boston” Rob Survivor/RGPS Connection
28:49 | Being nominated for Mid-Major Tour of the Year… again!
33:42 | Excitement over the RGPS Pro-AM with PokerGO
38:34 | Attending the upcoming Global Poker Awards
43:47 | Highlights from the Parx Big Stax XXXII 1100



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Casinos, Card Rooms Likely to Prioritize Disinfection Given Coronavirus


Washington state had the first fatal US case of COVID-19 virus as West Coast casinos and card rooms apparently will need to take steps and make plans to minimize the spread of the global illness.

Life Care Center of Kirkland, Washington has seen a possible coronavirus outbreak. Several employees and patients at the nursing home are getting tested. (Image: Life Care Center)

Though risk of contracting the virus remains low in the US, there is concern in states like Washington, Oregon and California about the “community spread” of the illness. The Washington state man who died is believed to have gotten the disease from this type of transmission, health officials said on Saturday.

It is where patients get sick without having close contact with an infected person. Nor, have they visited relatively heavily infected regions, such as China, South Korea, Iran or Italy.

Washington state and Oregon both are home to several tribal casinos. California has multiple card rooms and tribal gaming properties.

Casino.org reached out to several Los Angeles region card rooms, but their spokespeople did not return calls or emails to comment about preventative steps they may be taking given the COVID-19 outbreak.

Recommendations for Hotel Disinfection

On Friday, a spokesman for Ecolab, a global provider of hygiene technology and services to the hospitality and other sectors, repeated key guidelines being released by the US Centers for Disease Control.

Good personal hygiene practices can help prevent the spread of infection,” Ecolab said in a statement given to Casino.org.

These include washing hands frequently with soap and water. If they are not available, people should use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer. Also, people should minimize close contact with those who have symptoms of respiratory illness, the statement adds.

Beyond these steps, Ecolab, generally, when it comes to preventing the spread of illness at hotels, recommends providing tissues and hand sanitizer stations. Disinfectants should be stocked at the hotel, too.

In guest rooms, hotel staff should thoroughly clean and disinfect all hard surfaces. Guest rooms should have individual laundry bags.

Frequently touched spots in a guest room need to be kept clean, too. Examples of less obvious items include the luggage rack, curtain handles and hangers.

Also, in public areas, such as a lobby or restaurant, the hotel should increase cleaning and disinfecting of frequently touched surfaces. Hotels should also place alcohol-based hand sanitizer stations outside of public restrooms.

Nothing can guarantee not contracting the virus. Health agencies tell patients, concerned about possible symptoms, to contact their own doctors.

The hotel also should have a contingency plan in case a property has an outbreak of an illness. A hotel should also encourage employees showing symptoms of an illness to stay at home, the recommendations say. There are specific guidelines for kitchens and back-of-house operations, as well.

Earlier this week, Wynn Las Vegas told Casino.org the gaming property installed “hand sanitizers in public areas” and “back-of-house for team members.” The installation was described as a “precaution” and the company adds, “safeguarding the health of our guests and employees is of the highest importance.”

To reduce the risk of illness, health officials and Ecolab recommend a more thorough washing of hands. For instance, hands should be scrubbed for at least 20 seconds. Make sure to clean under fingernails and between fingers.

US-based casino operators and related hospitality organizations are monitoring the viral outbreak and are apparently following recommendations from local and national health officials. For instance, the Southern Nevada Health District regularly trains with public and private partners, and there are plans and guidance in place for illness outbreaks, VitalVegas.com recently tweeted.

Casino Operators’ Reports Note Potential Impact from Coronavirus

Some global casino operators advised investors this week that the outbreak could have a negative impact, especially with the prior shutdown of casinos on Macau in China.

On Friday, Wynn said in an annual report the outbreak “has had and will have an adverse effect on our results of operations,” the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported. In its annual report, Caesars said that business may be “adversely affected” if there is “business disruption, reduced customer traffic and reduced operations,” the newspaper added.

Wynn’s shutdown cost the company between $2.4 million and $2.6 million a day — and MGM said it lost about $1.5 million of operating expenses during the shutdown, the Review-Journal reported. US casinos remain open with no known cases of COVID-19 virus in Las Vegas.

Twenty-four Asian airlines are canceling March flights to and from Macau due to the virus. US carriers are limiting or temporarily halting flights to and from highly impacted areas, too.

Back in the US, there are concerns if a possible outbreak of the virus infected multiple people in a single Washington state facility. It was revealed on Saturday, 27 patients and 25 employees were showing symptoms associated with coronavirus at Life Care Center, a nursing home in Kirkland. One resident and one healthcare worker were reported to have the illness.

Public events and conferences are getting canceled in the US and globally, too. The outbreak has led to the cancellation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, as well as a large Google meeting, both of which had been scheduled for Las Vegas in March.

Some 13 percent of Americans questioned in a recent survey, said they canceled or changed travel plans due to the coronavirus, CNN reported. The Kaiser Family Foundation survey involved some 1,200 respondents.

So far, there is no COVID-19 vaccine, though Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna and Israel’s Galilee Research Institute are hopeful they may be able to provide one after review by regulators.



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Playing snug at the 2015 WSOP Final Table


Hello everyone! The 2015 WSOP Main Event provided lots of excellent educational poker footage. Instead of typing out a long blog post explaining the concept of playing conservatively when you have a middle stack, I decided to make a video. In this hand, Beckley made what I believe to be a huge error and it ended up costing him a significant amount of chips. Would you have made the same error he made?

If you enjoyed this hand, you will love my exclusive webinar where I review over 30 hands from the 2015 WSOP Main Event final table. Click here to get access to this exclusive educational experience. Be sure to check back next week for another educational blog post.

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BIden’s Odds to Win Democratic Nomination Improve to +250 Thanks to Convincing Win in South Carolina


Joe Biden speaking

Joe Biden’s odds of winning the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination improved to +250 following his win in the South Carolina primary. Photo by Marc Nozell (Flickr).

  • Joe Biden easily won the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary, capturing nearly 50% of the vote
  • Bovada improved Biden’s odds to win the nomination to +250. Is he back in the race?
  • See below for picks and predictions on the Democratic race

The South Carolina Democratic primary couldn’t have gone finer for Joe Biden.

Heavily favored to win, Biden delivered on the odds. The former US Vice-President captured 48.4% of the votes cast to easily distance Bernie Sanders.

The Democratic frontrunner coming into South Carolina, Sanders was far back in second place with 19.9% of ballots cast in his favor.

Bovada was quick to improve Biden’s odds of winning the nomination. The sportsbook nows lists him as the second betting choice at odds of +250.

Across the leading sportsbooks, he’d been averaging +667 in the Democratic nomination odds entering South Carolina.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Odds

Candidate Odds at Bovada
Bernie Sanders -105
Joe Biden +250
Michael Bloomberg +600
Pete Buttigieg +1600
Hillary Clinton +2500
Elizabeth Warren +5000
Michelle Obama +10000
Amy Klobuchar +25000
Tom Steyer +50000
Tulsi Gabbard +50000

Odds taken Feb. 29th

Sanders is still the overall leader. Bovada pegs Sanders as the -105 chalk.

African Americans Go Heavily For Biden

Exit polls taken by NBC News showed that Biden garnered 61% of black voters in South Carolina. Sanders captured only 16% of the black vote.

No other Democratic candidate registered with any significance among African Americans in the state. Elizabeth Warren was at 5%. More alarmingly, Pete Buttigieg garnered only 3% of the vote. Amy Klobuchar was at zero.

Buttigieg’s campaign is fading after strong showings in the mostly-white states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Predictions were that Buttigieg’s support would falter in the more diverse states. His poor performances in both Nevada and South Carolina are showing that those prognostications hold merit.

Sanders Downplays Setback

Sanders sought to move on quickly from his biggest primary loss. Saying you can’t win them all, the Vermont Senator quickly turned his attention to March 3rd. Super Tuesday has 14 states up for grabs. It’ll be a true test of who’s the actual frontrunner in this race.

The Sanders campaign invested heavily in Super Tuesday races. Estimates are he’s spent more than 40% more money campaigning in Super Tuesday states than Biden.

Ballots are still being counted in South Carolina. Early math though indicates that Biden will overtake Sanders in terms of popular vote in the Democratic race. However, Sanders still holds the edge in delegates.

Bloomberg Enters Democratic Fray

Super Tuesday marks the first time that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is on the Democratic ballot. Bloomberg’s support in the polls and odds has waned following his poor debate performances. But he’s spent millions on campaign ads in Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar are quickly fading from relevancy. Tom Steyer officially dropped from the race on Saturday. Might Bloomberg step in and slice into support among moderate Democrats on Super Tuesday, again vaulting Sanders ahead?

Biden On Comeback Trail

South Carolina has proven to be a President maker in the past. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are among two Democrats whose path to the White House was launched via a win in the South Carolina primary.

In three Presidential bids, Biden had never won a primary race prior to Saturday.

After his win, Biden proclaimed that he was back in the race. But is he really?

Polls indicate Sanders is ahead in both California and Texas. Two of the biggest states voting on Tuesday, they hold 600 delegates up for grabs.

If Sanders can claim both of those states, the Biden bump will prove to be nothing more than a blip on the radar.


This article may contain links to external sports betting services. SBD may receive advertising revenue from these links, however editorial has hand-picked each individual link based on relevance to the article, without influence on the coverage.

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Weekly Poker Hand #69 | Jonathan Little


Do you check behind on the flop when you raise with big cards and the flop comes with middle cards? If you aren’t, I think you are making the standard error of continuation betting too often. Check out this hand to see how I handle this situation.

To get my audiobooks for free, check out JonathanLittlePoker.com/free.

To get the audio-only version, please subscribe to my podcast on iTunes.

If you have any questions or comments about this hand, feel free to ask in the comments section!

Thank you for watching. Be sure to check back next week at JonathanLittlePoker.com for another episode of Weekly Poker Hand.

 



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Fun hand from a $1/$2 live cash game


cash 1I was asked by a large number of my students to get some experience playing the small stakes live games so I could make a training product to help them crush those specific games. I did exactly that, and Strategies for Beating Small Stakes Cash Games was born. I owe a huge amount of thanks to everyone who inspired me to make this book! Thank you for making it the #1 Best-Selling Poker book on Amazon!

Today I am going to share a hand with you from a $1/$2 live cash game at Borgata, in Atlantic City. My table will populated with mostly 50-70 year old recreational players who liked to limp with almost their entire range of playable hands. When someone raised, it was usually to 6 big blinds, which typically resulted in everyone folding. Talk about a great game!

The lojack, hijack, and cutoff limped. I picked up Ah-Ts on the button and limped as well. Both raising and limping are fine options. I would typically raise in this spot but I was trying to get a feel for my opponents’ tendencies. The main reason limping is great is because it forces your opponents to stay in the pot with numerous worse A-x hands. Raising is ideal mainly when one or two people will call then play straightforwardly after the flop, allowing me to steal the pot when they have nothing while paying me off when we both flop top pair and I dominate them.

The player in the small blind, the only loose player at the table, a 30 year old Asian guy, raised to $7, which was quite abnormal. The big blind, lojack, hijack, and I called. I don’t particularly like his raise with any hand because when you are out of position, you generally want to play small pots. You certainly do not want to play a bloated pot versus four opponents with fairly wide ranges.

The flop came Ad-Kd-Qh, giving me top pair and a gutshot. Everyone checked to the cutoff, a 65 year old guy, who instantly went all-in for $45 into the $35 pot. He had made this move a few times during my first few orbits at the table but never got called. When you see someone making the same overly aggressive play over and over, you have to assume he has at least some bluffs or overvalued made hands in his range. However, he was 65 years old, so I folded with almost no thought. I also had to worry about the player in the small blind, who was clearly cutting out calling chips. This may sound quite tight, but I think I would fold K-Q and all worse made hands in this spot, reluctantly calling off with A-Q and better. If I thought the player in the small blind was certainly putting $45 in the pot, perhaps A-K should be folded. When you are against two likely premium ranges, you need almost the nuts to get involved.

That being said, the players in this game seemed to play fairly weak and passive before the flop but they almost never folded after the flop with any sort of decently strong made hand. I think most people at this table would have made the call with top pair plus a gutshot because they think top pair is “strong”. Just because your hand is reasonably strong on the hand ranking chart does not matter when you are against a range what is almost certainly premium made hands and premium draws. As expected, the player in the small blind decided to look up the cutoff and they both chopped the pot with the nut straight.

While I think my decision was fairly easy, both of my opponents played their hands horribly, assuming they think their opponents are capable of getting away from marginal made hands, as I did. After I folded, the small blind instantly put his stack in as if he could not wait to get his chips in the pot. Clearly this is a terrible idea because the lojack and cutoff still had their cards. When you have the nuts, the last thing you want to do is make your hand appear as if it is the nuts. This instant all-in move repeated itself over and over throughout my sessions, almost always with the fast bettor having the nuts. I can’t comprehend how they get action, but somehow they do. In these games, it seemed to me like most players were playing blatantly face-up. If you listen to what they tell you, you can steal the pot whenever they have nothing and make big folds when it is clear they want action.

If you would like to hear about many more of the significant pots I played at the $1/$2 tables in preparation for Strategies, check out this free 31-minute preview video of an exclusive webinar where I reveal more of the small cash game strategies I used that allowed me to win at $35 per hour.

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Is it Classless to Bet on WSOP Cancellation?


The coronavirus, which originated in China, is now threatening to spread throughout the US, potentially affecting the 2020 World Series of Poker. Some poker players on Twitter are taking bets on if the series will even take place this summer. But others, including Daniel Negreanu, refuse to wager on a virus that could leave many sick or dead.

coronavirus 2020 wsop poker

The coronavirus could impact the 2020 World Series of Poker. (Image: kwch.com)

Over 80,000 people, mostly in China, have contracted this harmful virus over the past few months. Nearly 3,000 individuals have died from it, including the first death in the US recently.

Seth Palansky, WSOP’s vice president of corporate communications, informed CardsChat that they are planning to host the 51st annual World Series of Poker this summer. Should the coronavirus threat worsen and spread rapidly in Las Vegas, he said they’ll take the proper precautions. But some poker pros — and former pros — must know something Palansky doesn’t.

High Rollers Bet on Coronavirus to Postpone 2020 WSOP

CardsChat’s Johnny Kampis recently reported on the affects the coronavirus could have on the 2020 WSOP. As stated in the article, the WSOP isn’t the only major event that could be cancelled due to this deadly virus. The Summer Olympics, held in Japan, is also in jeopardy.

So, that makes some poker players wonder if the WSOP will be postponed. And a few pros have even gone so far as to bet on a cancellation.

Crossing the Line of Decency?

Should the coronavirus spread throughout the US, many Americans will likely die. Due to that reason, some poker players on Twitter were critical of those who would bet on the virus forcing a WSOP cancellation. Daniel Negreanu is one of those individuals.

Chris Moneymaker, the 2003 world champion, admitted in response to Negreanu’s post that he’s concerned the series will be cancelled. But he also he won’t bet on it happening for the reasons “Kid Poker” listed.

It’s certainly an interesting debate to have. Is it ethically wrong to bet on the coronavirus spreading enough to force a WSOP postponement? We aren’t about to get up on a high horse here, so we’ll let you be the judge.

McDonald defended his wager. He wrote on Twitter that he isn’t cheering for thousands of people to get sick and die so he can collect on a bet. Instead, he says, “rooting for it to be cancelled is more about hoping those in charge of the WSOP care about the lives of their employees and customers more than they care about dollars.”

Of course, no one knows just how widespread the coronavirus will be in the US come May 26 when the World Series of Poker is open for business.





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Weekly Poker Hand #70 | Jonathan Little


I discuss developing a limping strategy when you have a middle stack at a final table and there is an aggressive large stack on your left. These two hands demonstrate how failing to make this adjustment cost Max Steinberg dearly at the 2015 WSOP Final Table.

To get my audiobooks for free, check out JonathanLittlePoker.com/free.

To get the audio-only version, please subscribe to my podcast on iTunes.

If you have any questions or comments about this hand, feel free to ask in the comments section!

Thank you for watching. Be sure to check back next week at JonathanLittlePoker.com for another episode of Weekly Poker Hand.

 



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Mets’ Pete Alonso Soaring Up NL MVP Odds Board


NL MVP odds

Pete Alonso hit 53 home runs en route to winning the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year. Can he follow up a brilliant freshman season by winning the NL MVP in 2020? Photo by slgckgc (Flickr).

  • Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has seen his odds of winning the 2020 NL MVP shortened over the last two weeks, moving from an average of +3900 to +3400
  • At Bovada, Alonso’s odds have moved to +2500, making him the 11th highest-ranked favorite
  • Is Alonso worthy of a wager at his new price?

Pete Alonso certainly had a 2019 season for the ages. With 53 home runs, he surpassed Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record, and also finished with 120 RBI en route to winning the National League rookie of the year award.

Alonso will be hoping to build on that in 2020, by not only helping the New York Mets back to the playoffs, but potentially winning the NL MVP award too. He has seen his position in the 2020 NL MVP odds improve of late, as his odds have been shortened to +2500 at Bovada.

2020 NL MVP Odds

Player Odds at Bovada
Mookie Betts (Dodgers) +350
Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) +450
Christian Yelich (Brewers) +700
Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) +1000
Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) +1000
Juan Soto (Nationals) +1000
Bryce Harper (Phillies) +1400
Nolan Arenado (Rockies) +1400
Freddie Freeman (Braves) +2000
Javier Baez (Cubs) +2200
Pete Alonso (Mets) +2500
Kris Bryant (Cubs) +2800
Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals) +3000
Trevor Story (Rockies) +3300
Manny Machado (Padres) +3500

Odds taken on Feb. 29th

Room For Improvement

While his 2019 season will be tough to match, Alonso still has room to improve in a number of areas. On the defensive side of the ball, for instance, the Mets star has been putting in extra work this spring to bring his skills up to par with his rivals.

According to FanGraphs, Alonso was minus-6 in defensive runs saved in 2019, while fellow first baseman – and NL Gold Glove winner – Anthony Rizzo was plus-3 in that department.

An Unlikely Encore

As good as 2019 was for Pete Alonso offensively, it makes the odds of him repeating his heroics at the plate all the more unlikely. As a rookie, it was the first time many major-league pitchers had ever pitched to him, so he won’t benefit from the unknown quantity in his second season in the majors.

However, for him to have a chance to take home MVP honors, he doesn’t necessarily have to repeat his 53-home run season of a year ago, but getting 40+ (reigning MVP Cody Bellinger’s 47-home run 2019 season is a good marker) would do his chances no harm whatsoever.

A Better Mets Team

What likely will give Alonso his best chance of winning the MVP will simply be a better team around him. In the last 22 seasons, the NL MVP has only come from a non-playoff team on six occasions.

The Mets weren’t too far off the mark in 2019, but a slow start to the season doomed them to running an uphill battle the rest of the way. But after the All-Star break, the team was winning games at a .639 clip, averaging 5.2 runs in those 72 games. Given the caliber of the pitching rotation, which includes Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman, that kind of offensive production will go a long way to winning ball games.

The Competition

As might be expected for a team that is expected to cruise into the playoffs for an eighth straight season, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be fielding multiple MVP candidates on a nightly basis. Newcomer Mookie Betts is the favorite to win the NL MVP at +350, having won the AL version with the Boston Red Sox in 2018.

But he will be competing against new teammate and reigning NL MVP Bellinger (+1000) for that honor, and there is always the possibility that the presence of two high-caliber MVP candidates simply splits the vote.

On a competitive Mets team, Alonso’s +2500 odds represent great value.

Pick: Alonso (+2500)

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As expected Biden storming to big victory in South Carolina


NYT – click for latest

Even though barely 6% of precincts have reported as I write, the networks have all declared Joe Biden the winner in the South Carolina Primary. At the moment he’s heading for more than 50% of the entire vote and it is hard to see anything other than him sweeping the state.

There will be few states in the current nomination race where the outcome will be so clear cut in favour of one candidate and this exceeds anything that the current frontrunner, Bernie Sanders, has managed to achieve.

Even though the Betfair market is still open you’ll be hard-pressed to bet on Biden at any price

The big thing now is how this impacts on the dynamic of the race as we head for Super Tuesday in just 3 days time when when getting on for 34% of the entire delegates at stake throughout the US will be decided. Will Biden get a boost or will it revert to Sanders doing as he has done in the other three early primary States?

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Excelling Webinars! | Jonathan Little


excelling-audiobook-pokerI am extremely excited to announce the first Excelling at No-Limit Hold’em webinar will take place on 12/3 at 7pm EST. This webinar is completely FREE. All you have to do is sign up and show up on time.

In this one-hour webinar, I will discuss one of the areas where I see amateurs make fundamental errors on a regular basis: when to value bet versus when to pot control. If you master this vital skill, you will immediately see in increase to your win rate. In this webinar, I will give you the details you need to get started towards value betting mastery! Be sure to sign up and tell your friends!

Also, I am pleased to announce that you can now get Excelling at No-Limit Hold’em in the audiobook format. This audiobook is over 20 hours long! I am incredibly pleased with the final result and I know you will be too. Amazon is currently running a promotion where you can get 2 of my audiobooks for free. Click here for full details.  Let me know what you think!

Be sure to check back next week for another educational blog post where I will show you a tool I have been using recently to work on my poker skills. Thanks for reading!



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Weekly Poker Hand #71 | Jonathan Little


I use ICMizer to analyze an interesting spot from the 2015 WSOP Main Event Final Table. While raising in this spot is the “standard” play for most, I come to a drastically different conclusion. Would you have played this spot as Steinberg did or would you have picked a different option? Let me know in the comments section below. If you want to play perfectly in push/fold situations, be sure to use ICMizer to analyze your game and hone your skills.

To get my audiobooks for free, check out JonathanLittlePoker.com/free.

To get the audio-only version, please subscribe to my podcast on iTunes.

If you have any questions or comments about this hand, feel free to ask in the comments section!

Thank you for watching. Be sure to check back next week at JonathanLittlePoker.com for another episode of Weekly Poker Hand.

 



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Studying poker with ICMizer | Jonathan Little


icmizer-pokerWhen I first started playing poker, I would spend 6 hours per day grinding sit n’ go’s and 4 hours reviewing my hands using a now-defunct program called Sit N’ Go Power Tools. Eventually I moved to multi-table tournaments and stopped studying push-fold situations because I thought I knew them perfectly.

While watching the 2015 WSOP Main Event  (I review 31 hands from the final table here),  I saw someone call an all-in in a situation where I thought it could easily be bad. I knew ICMizer was the go-to final table push-fold authority, so I downloaded the program and saw that the player in question should call or fold based almost entirely on the payout structure. Since the WSOP had effectively no payout jumps from 9th to 6th place, the player should call. If the tournament had “standard” payout jumps, he should fold. Understanding these nuances are mandatory if you want to succeed at tournament poker.

Here is a video of me analyzing this situation (Be sure to click the “full screen” option at the bottom right of the video so you can see all the numbers):

I eventually figured out that ICMizer had an amazing “sng coach” feature. The program quizzes you to determine your push-fold strengths and weaknesses. From there, you can practice numerous tricky spots until you fully understand each and every situation you are likely to encounter. You can make the quizzes as detailed as you want ot as broad as you want. Here is a video of me playing 6-handed push/fold situations from the cutoff using a standard multi-table payout structure. While I thought I was embarrassing myself with my answers, I actually did quite well compared to the other users of the program! Be sure to click the “full screen option at the bottom right of the video so you can see all the numbers.

If you play tournaments, I strongly suggest you spend some time studying with ICMizer. Even if you only plug one or two leaks, you will see your win-rate rise significantly. I am interested to hear how you do. Let me know in the comments section below. Good luck!

Click here to sign up for ICMizer.



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Friday 28 February 2020

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Juventus vs Inter Milan Odds & Pick on Serie A Matchday 26


Romelu Lukaku has been a success sibce his move to Italy from Manchester United.

Romelu Lukaku has scored 23 goals in all competitions for Inter Milan this season and hopes to give their bid for the Serie A title a fresh boost in the critical game away against leaders Juventus. Photo from @Inter_en (Twitter)

  • Title contenders clash in Serie A Matchday 26 top fixture on Sunday, March 1, 2020, at 2:45 pm EST
  • Game will be behind closed doors because of coronavirus
  • See the odds, analysis and best bet for this weekend’s top of the table clash

Juventus face another massive challenge at the top of Italy’s Serie A when they face third-placed Internazionale of Milan at home in Turin on Sunday.

The game will take place behind closed doors because of the alarm caused in the country by the spread of the coronavirus.

After returning to first place two weeks ago, Juventus have a one-point lead over second-placed Lazio and are six points clear of Inter.

Juventus are priced at +119 favorites with BetOnline to win the crucial clash with Inter rated at +230. The draw is +215 and this looks the best value on offer ahead of what will be a tight and intense clash, albeit one played in a strange and muted atmosphere on March 1, 2020, at Allianz Stadium, in Turin, at 2:45 pm EST.

Serie A Matchday 26 Juventus vs Inter Milan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds at BetOnline
Juventus -½  +119 +119 Ov 2½  -105
Inter Milan +½  -139 +230 Un 2½  -115
Draw N/A +215 N/A

Odds taken Feb. 28

The lack of a crowd may very well affect the intensity of the game, however. This, alternatively, could produce a muted rather than an intense draw. Or it may slightly favor a win for Juventus in their own home surroundings.

Clearly, there are unfamiliar factors at work here.

Inter briefly led the table three weeks ago after a thrilling 4-2 defeat of city rivals AC Milan.

Conte’s Team Have Slipped to Third

But they have slipped to third following a 2-1 defeat away at Lazio and the subsequent postponement of their match against Sampdoria last weekend because of the virus alert.

This means they have played a game less than title rivals Juventus and Lazio.

Maurizio Sarri, the Juventus coach, is in need of a good result against Inter following his team’s 1-0 defeat by Lyon in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie on Tuesday.

It has led to widespread critics of his tactics and methods by supporters.

Juve were beaten 2-1 at Napoli on January 26 and then, following a subsequent 3-0 defeat of Fiorentina, they were beaten  2-1 by Hellas Verona.

The team has lost twice in the last five league games to introduce some jitters following an earlier run of five straight victories from mid-December to mid-January.

Juve were beaten 2-1 at Napoli on January 26  and then, following a subsequent 3-0 defeat of Fiorentina, they were beaten 2-1 by Hellas Verona.

Serie A Matchday 26 Juventus vs Inter Milan Statistics

19 Wins 16
3 Losses 2
3 Draws 6
48 Goals 49
24 Goals Against 22
8 Clean Sheets 8
54 Yellow Cards 62
2 Red Cards 2

The following two wins which restored them to the competition’s pole position have come against the league’s current bottom two sides.

So they have done little to ease the mood of discontent around Sarri’s leadership.

A 2-0 defeat of Brescia was followed last weekend by a 2-1 win against SPAL.

Ronaldo’s Record Goal Streak

There have also been suggestions that Sarri is over-reliant on superstar Cristiano Ronaldo.

When he scored in the victory against SPAL, it was the 11th consecutive league game in which Ronaldo had netted – equalling a Serie A record.

Juventus have been champions for eight consecutive seasons.

Inter may have an advantage this Sunday – in the game known as the Derby D’ Italia – having already experienced the oddities of playing behind closed doors this week.

Before their defeat by Lazio , Inter had briefly claimed top place after a 2-0 defeat of Udinese and the subsequent derby win against Milan.

Their 2-1 defeat of Bulgarian side Ludogorets in the Europa League on Thursday was played before empty stands because of the medical emergency.

Before their defeat by Lazio in their most recent fixture, Inter had briefly claimed top place after a 2-0 defeat of Udinese and the subsequent derby win against Milan.

However, they had drawn three successive times before-hand.

They have won 16 times, drawn six and lost twice for their tally of 54 points.

The first setback was a 2-1 home defeat by Juventus last October with the Lazio reverse coming on February 16.

Juventus have been beaten three times but have won 19 games and drawn three for a total of 60 points.

Along with the recent defeats by Napoli and Hellas Verona, they lost 3-1 at Lazio in October.

Pick: Draw +215

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Jon Moxley Favored to Win World Title


Chris Jericho

Chris Jericho will be defending his championship belt against Jon Moxley at AEW Revolution. Photo from @nypost (Twitter)

  • AEW Revolution takes place in Chicago, on Saturday, February 29th
  • The event’s card will boast a slew of marquee matches, including Chris Jericho vs. Jon Moxley
  • With two major championships currently projected to change hands, who do the odds favor going over?

In just one year, All Elite Wrestling has provided wrestling fans with a true alternative to WWE. All of their pay-per-views to date have delivered, but Revolution this Saturday night in Chicago could be their best yet.

Having a weekly television show in Dynamite has afforded them the opportunity to build up several storylines over the course of a few months. The entire event card has potential, but the top three matches in particular are by no means predictable and have fans buzzing in regards to who will win.

Courtesy of BetOnline, let’s look at the current betting odds for Revolution and the smart picks for each outing.

2020 AEW Revolution Odds

Wrestler Odds at BetOnline
Chris Jericho +100
Jon Moxley -140
Wrestler Odds
Dustin Rhodes +210
Jake Hager +320
Wrestler Odds
Kenny Omega & Adam Page +175
The Young Bucks -260
Wrestler Odds
Cody +140
MJF -180
Wrestler Odds
Nyla Rose -210
Kris Statlander +160

Odds taken February 27th

Jericho vs Moxley (AEW World Championship)

Moxley has been the hot hand in AEW since his arrival at Double or Nothing nine months ago. He is one of the few stars to remain undefeated in singles competition and has the crowd behind him heading into his shot at Jericho’s AEW World Championship this Saturday night.

These two are incredibly close in the odds and understandably so. AEW has done such an effective job of building this bout up that it could very well go either way, and although the idea of Moxley taking the title from Jericho at Revolution has been heavily teased, there is worth in betting on The Painmaker to retain his title.

Jericho has been such a breath of fresh air as AEW World champion over the past six months that it would almost be criminal for him to drop the belt any time soon. Furthermore, there are plenty of opponents for him to defend against if he can survive Moxley.

Between all of Jericho’s buddies in Inner Circle and the looming threat of Lance Archer (who Moxley defeated to win the IWGP United States Heavyweight Championship in Japan), Jericho has a better chance of coming out on top than Moxley does.

Rhodes vs Hager

The former Jack Swagger has yet to step into an AEW ring for official action despite debuting on Dynamite’s launch episode in October. Instead, he has been a valuable asset to Inner Circle serving as their bodyguard of sorts.

He and Rhodes have been on a collision course for months after Hager broke Rhodes’ arm and now Rhodes is out for revenge. This should be a solid match, but Hager should absolutely emerge victorious considering he has more to offer at this point, making it all the more surprising that Rhodes is favored in the odds over him.

Thus, Hager is a much safer bet unless he intends on taking time off sometime soon to train for his next MMA fight.

Omega & Page vs Young Bucks (AEW World Tag Team Championship)

The match with the most interesting dynamic on the Revolution card has to be the bout for the AEW World Tag Team Championship featuring four members of The Elite.

Adam Page has made it quite clear that he cares about no one but himself and is willing to do anything to maintain his possession of the tag titles. That means a heel turn is a definite possibility, but either way, there’s no reason him and Omega to relinquish the belts this early into their reign.

This feud can extend beyond Revolution with Young Bucks trying to prove to Omega that Page isn’t worth his time only for Omega to side with Page. There are so many places AEW can go with this story, but in the meantime, Omega and Page should remain the AEW World Tag Team champions.

Young Bucks have a fairly decent lead in the odds as of this writing, but it’s likelier that their journey to the titles doesn’t culminate as soon as Saturday.

Cody vs MJF

MJF masqueraded around for months as Cody’s “best friend,” only to stab in the back at Full Gear following his failure to win the AEW World Championship. That kicked off an incredibly personal rivalry between the two that has been nothing short of spectacular so far.

Cody boasts one of the best win-loss records of anyone in AEW at the moment, but MJF being favored to win against his friend-turned-foe at Revolution is right on the money (both figuratively and literally). MJF has a lot more to gain from coming out on top in this anticipated encounter than Cody does.

Needless to say, expect this rivalry to continue well past Revolution (likely into Double or Nothing) with Cody continuing to chase MJF until he scores that elusive victory.

Rose vs Statlander (AEW Women’s Championship)

Despite being a relatively fresh face in AEW’s women’s division, Statlander has been very impressive up to this point. Although she originally failed to become AEW Women’s champion against Riho last month, she’ll have one more chance to get the job done when she challenges Rose at Revolution.

It’s slightly surprising the odds aren’t more lopsided in Rose’s favor, if only because she just beat Riho for the belt and to have her lose it any time soon would be silly. To her credit, The Native Beast has come into her own in recent months and should be a force to be reckoned with in the division for months to come.

Currently, Statlander arguably poses the biggest possible threat to Rose’s reign, so it’s odd that the match is being given away without much build. Nonetheless, it’s virtually a guarantee that Rose will find a way to win and ensure her title run rolls on.

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