Don’t be seduced by sale of century

Ton down

As discussed in our full match preview, Hamilton’s Seddon Park is a road with short boundaries to boot. A shot which might bring two on most international grounds can go for six there.

Witness Colin Munro’s seven sixes against England two years ago in just 21 balls. Dawid Malan and Eoin Morgan hit five and six respectively. The total sixes in the match finished up at a massive 28.

We expect easy runs again with only a slightly dodgy weather forecast preventing us from going big on 180 being busted first up. But if the weather forecast is more reliable closer to ball one, check in-play prices. It may even be worth taking big number about, well, big numbers. A nibble here and there at more than 190 and more than 200 is the stuff of shrewdies.

Sportsbook, quite rightly considering the volatility, haven’t oput a price on total sixes for the contest but we’re happy to take them on at 13/10 Kiwis to hit the most.

Otherwise, the runs-related wager that will leap from the coupon for most is the 13/2 that a century is scored. It’s under consideration for a bet because we know that the runmakers dominate.

Unfortunately, the value here is in swerving the 11/2 offered. Hell, sometimes advice on what isn’t a good bet is as precious as what is and it is easy to fall into the trap that it’s worth taking. Reveries of Munro going ballistic. Or Kohli. Or Rahul. Or Sharma.

Sportsbook probably know this so have kept it on their side – and then some. There have been three centuries in 65 professional men’s T20 matches at the venue, a hit rate of just over four per cent. We cannot possibly claim that to be a wager.

V for victory

KL Rahul has now overtaken Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma as their most reliable top bat wager in T20. Rahul has seven wins in 23, which puts him on a a par with 9/4 chance.

The problem is we’ve probably missed the boat with Rahul. We’re now playing catch up and betting him now could mean we’re playing in the 70% zone. That’s how often he doesn’t win. Timing is everything and it would feel like chasing if we went after him.

And we’re not sure we should abandon Kohli just yet. The great man has not looked out of touch so far and he still rates a wager at 11/4. Our data has him winning 28% of the time. He’s in the mid-40s when it comes to chases.

There is a small edge on Munro for top Kiwi. To be precise, 1.67 implied probability points. We know he likes the venue. We know he is in nick. In 12 matches at Seddon Park he averages an excellent 38 and has an insane strike rate of 180.

Unfortunately for Munro there is a bigger edge on Colin de Grandhomme. Still. This is likely to be our final chance this series for De Grandhomme to cop because he is set to sit out the final two games. He’s not exactly slow at Seddon Park, either, striking at 176 in 12 matches although his average is less than Munro’s at 27.

De Grandhomme has a win rate in line with a 9/2 shot. And although we’re a little bitter Sportsbook have not pushed him out, we know they’re right not to. Which means we have to bet again.

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