Thursday 1 October 2020

Cardinals (Wainwright) vs Padres (Davies) Game 2 Picks and Odds


Fernando Tatis swings

Will Fernando Tatis continue to shine against St Louis? (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

  • The St Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres will meet in Game 2 of their NL Wild-Card series on Thursday, October 1st, at 5:00 pm ET
  • Veteran Adam Wainwright will take the mound for the Cards, while the Padres counter with Zach Davies
  • See the odds and betting info for Game 2, below

Game 2 of the St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Wild-Card series takes place on Thursday, October 1st, at 5:00pm ET. This will be an opportunity to clinch for one of the two teams in this quick-fire, three-game series.

The higher-seeded Padres are favored against a Cardinals team that faced a troubled regular season. St Louis only snuck into the postseason on the final day as they beat the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants lost to the Pads.

The table below has the latest Cardinals vs Padres odds for Game 2.

St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Game 2 Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
St Louis Cardinals +138 +1.5 (-150) O 8.5 (-117)
San Diego Padres -167 -1.5 (+125) U 8.5 (-105)

Odds as of October 1st at FanDuel

Flaherty Left Out

Mike Schildt altered his Wild Card series rotation on Monday, moving Adam Wainwright to the Game 2 spot and shifting Jack Flaherty to Game 3. The decision was not a universally popular one, as it risks the Cardinals being eliminated without Flaherty taking the mound.

There was surprise that Flaherty wasn’t starting in Game 1, leaving him until the final game of the series is a big gamble from St. Louis, and one that could see Schildt face major criticism if the Cardinals are knocked out after two games.

Zach Davies Gamble

With Lamet and Clevinger not ready, Zach Davies looks like the option for Game 2.

Davies had a strong year on results, finishing with a 2.73 ERA in 12 starts, but his expected numbers were not pretty. He’s well-rested, having gone three scoreless against the Giants on 26th, but the Padres would prefer to get Lamet or Clevinger on the mound. The soft-tossing righty ranked in the 26th percentile in expected ERA and the 14th percentile in barrel rate.

Even this flat Cardinals offense (24th in barrel rate) could crush Davies, who has ridden his luck this year. Many of the Cards’ hitters have seen plenty of Davies too from his time in the National League Central with the Brewers.

Wainwright’s 2020 Season Has Been Resurgent

Wainwright has made 27 postseason appearances, including 14 starts. He brings a wealth of experience that will need against a high-powered Padres line-up. San Diego were second in team barrel rate, fourth in OPS and fourth in homers.

The Pads will punish any mistakes. They have an array of hitters who can make loud contact. Wainwright is almost a decade removed from his peak, but he enjoyed a great 2020 regular season, throwing two complete games on his way to a 3.15 ERA.

He was above average in exit velocity and hard hit rate allowed. While the 39-year-old isn’t going to rack up the strikeouts, he will need to force soft contact, and he’s capable of doing so even against such a strong San Diego offense.

The Padres’ pitching uncertainty makes an early bet on the Cardinals moneyline look tempting. Understandably, a lot of bettors will wait for more information on Lamet and Clevinger before making any wagers.

With the possibility of Lamet or Clevinger pitching while not 100% or Davies starting, the run total over looks a good option. The Padres have fared better against right-handers this season, too – they could do significant damage against Wainwright.

Pick: Run Total Over 8.5 (-117)

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