League One play-off semi-final second leg
Monday 6th July, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football
All square after first leg
It was nice to get the draw to land in the first game, and the 1-1 over 90 minutes at Fratton Park highlighted how closely matched these two teams are. After all, only goal difference separated the pair after 35 games.
Portsmouth took the lead on 32 minutes from Ronan Curtis, an advantage that was deserved as Kenny Jackett’s side were intent on getting the ball to Curtis as often as possible. His goal was a sweet left-footed finish following a back-to-front move down the left, although Oxford keeper Simon Eastwood should have dealt better with a shot at his near post. There had been a warning sign earlier when Curtis hit the post from a similar sort of position.
Oxford conceded possession in the first 20 minutes to the hosts – who had 72% of the ball at that point. But to Oxford’s credit, they looked a better team after they went behind.
The equaliser for the Us was an excellent goal too. Winger Marcus Browne had caught the eye early in the game with his excellent defensive duties. However, he excels at running down the left at pace and cutting in – he’s one of the best in the division. It was a glimpse of magic and made sure that Oxford remain in the tie for Monday night.
The odds for backing the draw outright in the opening game was [3.35], and for Monday, they are even shorter. And that is the big question here for a bettor.
We expect the draw, but it comes down to price. Do we take shorter odds than is the norm?
I don’t like taking under for something that is usually higher in price, as that is not a good tactic for betting in the long run. I was quite impressed with how Oxford played once they weathered the Pompey storm, and I would rather back the Draw No Bet with Oxford at about [1.95]. That way we have two running for us – and that goes against a Pompey team that still haven’t managed a victory in a play-off game.
Oxford will need to shut down the left with Curtis, but they dealt with Portsmouth’s aerial threat very well. Central defender Rob Dickie has been coveted by several Premier League clubs, and the young defender had a good game. He’s not the biggest, but he has a great spring in the air and seems to read the game well.
If you are trading on the draw from that [3.05] price and we expect a tight game again, it could be one for a lay off bet.
For example, in the first game; the back at [3.35] got down to [2.8] on 30 minutes. I would suggest going a bit deeper and going down to [2.24] and laying back more than your stake to achieve a nice green book all round. Of course, we need it to stay 0-0 to get the trade.
Jackett and Robinson both agreed before the game there was very little between the two sides, and with two 1-1s played out for the season in the division, it’s no surprise the Under 2.5 is a prohibitive [1.62]. I just cannot recommend that bet, as I am not really in the habit of putting up those sorts of prices, especially in League One.
The natural instinct is to look at the Under 1.5 as an alternative; but again, [2.86] is little shorter than normal. It is that kind of game.
However, I am aware that some like to play at those odds, and it was fairly conclusive from the 1-1 at Fratton Park that the two forwards received very little of the
ball. I’d also add match fitness to that, as the game really dropped off after 70 minutes – which looked purely down to the fact they hadn’t played for three months.
And remember, Jackett is a very cautious manager.
Taking the prices quoted on the Sportsbook from Saturday night (yes, I don’t go out much), it’s a carbon copy of the first game. Matty Taylor is 4/1, and whilst he scored 17 for the season, he never had a sniff on Friday evening. James Henry is another big player for Oxford with his nine assists and 12 goals during the regular campaign, but he was very quiet and is at 13/2 to score first.
The best of the Pompey first goalscorer options could lie with Ronan Curtis again at 5/1. He really had a fine first-half and netted his 12th of the season. Whilst Ellis Harrison and John Marquis are 6/1 and 5/1 respectively, although I am not sure Jackett will play with a “two” up front.
Another close game might attract the layers to shorter odds in the To Score market on the Exchange. Taylor is likely to be around [3.35], with Marquis {3.55] and Harrison at [3.95]. For layers at prices, there are reasons to take them all on.
Alan Dudman’s P&L (inclusive ante-post, playoffs and regular season)
2019/20: +14.79
2018/19: +10.51
2017/18: +15.28
*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/side-with-the-us-to-make-it-to-the-final/
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