Sidney Crosby is back on the ice, which bodes well for his Pittsburgh Penguins, who have the shortest moneyline odds of any team in the NHL’s play-in round. Photo via @burghline (Twitter).
- In the NHL’s upcoming play-in round, the No. 5 Penguins and No. 12 Canadiens will face off in a best-of-five series starting Aug. 1
- The Penguins were -200 favorites in late May, but they’re even steeper favorites now
- Check out the odds, an update on the matchup, and a series pick in the article below
In less than a week, the No. 5 Pittsburgh Penguins and No. 12 Montreal Canadiens will embark on a best-of-five play-in series in Toronto, kicking off Game 1 at 8:00 pm ET on Aug. 1.
Of all the play-in series, no team is receiving a shorter price in the NHL odds than the Penguins.
Penguins vs Canadiens Series Odds
| Team | Odds to Win Series |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | -215 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +174 |
Odds taken July 27.
At those odds, are the Penguins still the right pick from a value perspective? Or can the Canadiens cash in on the short series?
Head-to-Head Results
In three matchups this season, Pittsburgh won twice (once in overtime) and Montreal won once. The goal differential was plus-one in favor of the Penguins.
That seems awfully close, but keep in mind that Montreal’s 4-1 win came without Penguins captain Sidney Crosby in the lineup. As deep as the Penguins are, Crosby still makes a world of difference.
Hands up if you’re excited to watch Sidney Crosby do his thing… 🙋♂️ pic.twitter.com/5QdccFqXSv
— NHL (@NHL) July 24, 2020
Crosby only played in one of the games against Montreal this season, tallying three assists in a 4-1 win. And speaking of the Penguins’ captain…
Crosby Skating with Team after Absence
He’s back! Crosby exited an intrasquad scrimmage on July 18 for an undisclosed reason (the NHL has locked down injury/illness news for the time being) but he was back skating with the team during their first workout in the Toronto bubble on Monday.
Sidney Crosby is on the ice for the #Pens‘ first practice in Toronto. -MC
— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) July 27, 2020
Crosby had been on the ice once in Pittsburgh a few days prior, but Monday marked his first time re-joining the team. It’s a great sign that he’ll be good to go for the series.
Romanov a No-Go
To help slow the Penguins’ potent offense, the Canadiens were probably hoping to insert top prospect Alexander Romanov into their lineup. Montreal signed Romanov, its 2018 second-round pick, earlier this month and he has joined the team for workouts.
But by signing Romanov now, after the season went on pause, the youngster won’t be eligible to participate in the play-in series. His contract will instead begin in 2020-21.
Alexander Romanov will head straight to Toronto to begin quarantine in preparation for Phase 4, rather than join the rest of the team for the tail end of Phase 3.
Romanov will be included on the Canadiens Phase 4 roster despite not being eligible to play. pic.twitter.com/wAccQssO0n
— Complete Hockey News (@CompleteHkyNews) July 21, 2020
Still, the Canadiens are one of the league’s statistical darlings. Despite having just a 50.37 goals percentage at 5-on-5, Montreal is near the top of the NHL in shooting percentage (second) and expected goals percentage (second).
Can Price Steal Series?
The brightest source of hope for the Canadiens is that a hot goalie — namely, Carey Price — can steal this best-of-five series.
The former Vezina winner has been the rock in net for Montreal the past dozen years, playing in all 60 of their playoff games during that span.
Who’s thankful for Carey Price (@CP0031)!? 😨 pic.twitter.com/3Qzrwbu8dY
— NHL (@NHL) November 29, 2019
But this has been a trying year for Price, who has been essentially league average in save percentage (.909) and goals against average (2.79). He also has led NHL goalies in total minutes played for a second consecutive year.
Price also hasn’t been his best self in his career against the Penguins, with a 13-14-5 record, .907 save percentage and 2.95 goals against average.
If Montreal wins, Price could certainly be the main reason why. But banking on a goalie who is overworked and facing a team he hasn’t succeeded against historically is not a recommended strategy.
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins (-215)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/penguins-vs-canadiens-updated-series-odds-prediction/
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