Friday, 24 July 2020

AC Milan vs Atalanta, Napoli vs Sassuolo & More


Parma Calcio

Parma broke a seven-match winless streak with a 2-1 win over Napoli in midweek play. Photo by @1913parmacalcio (Twitter)

  • Serie A’s Matchday 36 kicks off Friday afternoon with AC Milan hosting Atalanta
  • Battle in the top six between AC Milan and Atalanta gets Round 36 started
  • Read on for the full Matchday 36 odds as well as our best bets for the week

Just three rounds remain in the Serie A season and Round 36 kicks off on Friday afternoon. Juventus are still leading the pack with 80 points, but after a huge upset defeat to Udinese on Thursday, they failed to officially win the title. That still leaves the door just slightly open for Atalanta (six points back) and Inter Milan (seven) to try and catch the leaders.

Elsewhere, AS Roma, AC Milan and Napoli are jockeying in the top six, Brescia and SPAL are relegated and Lecce are fighting desperately to avoid a similar fate.

As has been the case since Serie A returned, the league has been a goal-fest, and it continued in Round 35, proving to be another profitable week for our weekly selections. Even though the round overall saw just 29 goals, the first to have less than 30, both teams scored in 8/10 and OVER 2.5 was 7-3, meaning no round since Round 27, has seen fewer than seven matches go OVER 2.5.

Let’s look ahead to the weekend card and hope the high-scoring affairs continue.

Serie A Matchday 36 Odds

Team Moneyline Odds at BetRivers
AC Milan +190
Atalanta +115
Draw +300
Team Moneyline
Brescia +245
Parma +105
Draw +265
Team Moneyline
Genoa +375
Inter Milan -155
Draw +315
Team Moneyline
Napoli -177
Sassuolo +425
Draw +325
Team Moneyline
Bologna +120
Lecce +200
Draw +280
Team Moneyline
Cagliari +240
Udinese +115
Draw +240
Team Moneyline
Roma -162
Fiorentina +400
Draw +325
Team Moneyline
Spal +480
Torino -182
Draw +320
Team Moneyline
Verona +260
Lazio +100
Draw +250
Team Moneyline
Juventus -375
Sampdoria +950
Draw +475

All odds taken July 23. For more betting options visit BetRivers

Pick 1: AC Milan vs Atalanta

Two top-six teams meet in the standalone match on Friday afternoon of Serie A’s Round 36 at 3:45 pm EST.

After draws in two of three matches which basically ended their chances of catching Juventus in the title race, Atalanta got back in the win column on Tuesday with a 1-0 win over Bologna. Substitute Luis Muriel scored the winner in the 63′ minute, his 18th of the year to give La Dea the narrow win.

Atalanta are still undefeated since the restart and while the title may be out of reach, they do have every chance at still finishing as runners-up.

Milan will be without several key players after their last match on Tuesday against Sassuolo. This includes midfielder Ismael Bennacer and defender Theo Hernandez (suspended), as well as three more injured defenders in Alessio Romagnoli, Andrea Conti and possibly Simon Kjaer. That could mean the entire backline from the last match will be absent on Friday.

Two first-half Zlatan Ibrahimovic goals were enough to pace Milan to a 2-1 win over Sassuolo and move them temporarily into fifth in the table, though they would move back down to sixth after Roma’s win over SPAL. Milan has been just as hot as Atalanta since the restart, also undefeated at 7-2-0 and currently riding a three-game win streak.

Milan will have some revenge on their minds after suffering a 5-0 defeat to Atalanta earlier this season. Milan are in completely different form though now and Friday’s result could be more balanced and similar to last year’s results.

In the 2018/19 season, the teams drew the first meeting 2-2 and Milan won 3-1 in the second encounter.

Though Milan are undefeated, they’ve kept just two clean sheets since returning and that trend will likely continue against an Atalanta side with three players among the top ten in league scoring. But Milan are full of goals themselves as Ante Rebic has five goals since the restart, Zlatan is coming off a two-goal performance and five different players contributed to the scoresheet for Milan in their recent 5-1 win Bologna. By the same token, Atalanta’s defense has tightened up of late but has also conceded in 6/10 since the restart.

Lots of firepower on the field for both sides, a makeshift Milan backline and plenty on the line for both sides should lead to plenty of goals. Ordinarily, I’d love the both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals market, but that is only paying -175 for this one. Over 3.5 goals in the game will pay +108, while both teams scoring and Over 3.5 will net you +118 odds.

Pick: OVER 3.5 goals (+108)

2020 Serie A Championship Odds Tracker

Pick 2: Brescia vs Parma

Two teams playing out the stretch meet at 11:15 am EST Saturday morning. But while each team has little on the line, these teams could not be less alike.

Brescia, on 24 points in 19th, are 12 points back of 17th-place Lecce and with just three rounds remaining are assured of relegation. While that only recently became a reality, they’ve been mostly brutal since the restart. After two draws and a win in their first four matches back, they’ve now gone 1-0-4, with that lone win coming against rock-bottom SPAL. Those four recent losses came by scores of 3-1, 3-0, 6-2 and even 3-1 to Lecce on Wednesday, where they fell behind 2-0 just 32 minutes into the match.

They also have a 6-0 defeat to their names since restarting and have now allowed multiple goals in 6/9 overall.

Parma, in 10th with 43 points, haven’t exactly been in top form themselves since the restart, but do at least have a chance at a top-half finish.

Parma returned with a draw and win, but then went winless in their next seven. They have though, shown fighting spirit, coming back to draw 2-2 with Bologna after being down 0-2, leading at AC Milan 1-0 (3-1 loss), and leading 2-0 at Sampdoria (3-2 loss). Those efforts had not paid off, as Parma were consistently coming up short and throwing away leads. They are unpredictable for sure.

But on Wednesday, they finally saw out a result in defeating Napoli 2-1. Now, they did hold only 35-percent possession, were outshot 12-6 and Napoli were missing key strikers, but still, it must feel could for Roberto D’Aversa’s men to finally collect all three points. It’s also worth noting that all three goals in the match came via PKs, and Parma’s winner came late in the 87′, so they failed to create much from the run of play.

But I just see more fight in this Parma side than in Brescia and being able to bet them at plus-money looks like solid value. I first saw them at +130, then +115 and now +105.

Parma have scored in every single match since the restart, but, they’ve also conceded in every match as well, so we should see a few goals. Nine of their ten matches have also seen OVER 2.5 goals. Earlier this year the teams drew 1-1 in Parma.

But let’s keep it simple. Bet Parma to win at plus-money or even Parma to score OVER 1.5 goals on their own at -136. I bet that market at -120 earlier this week and the number has now moved.

Pick: Parma win (+105)

Pick 3: Napoli vs Sassuolo

Two of the stronger teams since the restart, Napoli 5-2-2 and Sassuolo, 4-4-2, meet at 3:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon. The teams are side-by-side in the table, Napoli seventh with 56 points, ahead of eighth-place Sassuolo with 48 points.

While both had been riding impressive undefeated streaks, they are both coming off a loss in their most recent outings. Napoli, a 2-1 defeat to Parma as mentioned above, and Sassuolo a 2-1 defeat to AC Milan.

Sassuolo fell behind 2-1 in the first half on Tuesday, through two Ibrahimovic goals, but did score one goal themselves through a penalty to keep things close. A Mehdi Bourabia second yellow card in first-half stoppage time would reduce Sassuolo to ten men for the second half, but they still showed promise in trying to score a second goal throughout the game. The loss though, now confirms the most they can do is eclipse Napoli for seventh, should they win out and Napoli lose out the remainder of the way.

There’s no reason to think Sassuolo won’t continue their style of free-flowing soccer we’ve seen all season and throughout the restart. European qualification was always a longshot, but they’ve scored in every single game since returning, but (and I feel like I’ve written this sentence already for a different team), they have also conceded in every single match too. Again. Serie A equals goals.

Sassuolo have scored 23 and conceded 21, while every single match has seen both teams scoring and 9/10 have gone OVER 2.5.

Considering Napoli are also currently on a run of seeing both teams scoring in their past six and OVER 2.5 totals cashing in 5/6, why complicate things by not betting on goals in this one. Earlier this season it was Napoli who were 2-1 winners on the road in Round 17.

Both teams could rotate, but Sassuolo’s subs have still shown promise, and Arkadiusz Milik should be rested and could return to the Napoli lineup after sitting out due to suspension in midweek. Dries Mertens, unused last game, could also return.

I’m going to bet the goals market, but at +425 odds on an outright Sassuolo win, I would not be against making a smaller speculative bet on the visitors.

Pick: BTTS / Over 2.5 goals (-132)





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