Sunday, 27 December 2020

Colorado vs Arizona Odds, Lines and Spread


Jemarl Baker Jr, Guard, Arizona Wildcats

Arizona guard Jemarl Baker Jr. (3) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Eastern Washington, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

  • Colorado (6-1) heads to Arizona (6-1) on Monday, Dec. 28, at 9:30 pm ET
  • The Buffaloes are 5-2 against the spread, but they’ve only seen the under hit twice in that span
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

Two of the Pac 12’s finest meet on Monday, Dec. 28 at 9:30 pm ET, when the Arizona Wildcats host the Colorado Buffaloes. But teams posted 20-plus wins last season and are off to excellent starts in the 2020-21 campaign.

Neither have excelled against the spread, however. While both teams are 6-1 in their straight up records, Arizona has covered the spread in just two of its seven games, while Colorado has covered the spread in five of its seven. The Wildcats will hope to turn that around as narrow home underdogs on Monday:

 Arizona vs Colorado Odds

Team Moneyline Point Spread Total
Colorado -104 +1.5 (-122) Over 138.5 (-108)
Arizona -112 -1.5 (+100) Under 138.5 (-112)

Odds as of Dec. 27th, 2020

How They’ve Fared So Far

Colorado’s season so far is a dichotomy between mediocre teams it has beaten and a supremely talented team it did not beat. Against teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 100, the Buffaloes are six for six in the win column. But they couldn’t handle No. 8 Tennessee, who won 56-47 at home back on Dec. 8.

In that game, Colorado committed an astounding 23 turnovers and shot just 22.7 percent from 3-pt. range. It’s almost impressive that they kept the score as close as they did (it was a five-point game inside the final two minutes).

All of Colorado’s wins have come by 10 or more points, and five of them have come by 18 or more. So while we cannot give too much credit for a loss to a strong opponent like Tennessee, we also cannot discredit the Buffaloes’ ability to take care of business against lesser foes.

Arizona has a similar story, with six victories over teams outside KenPom’s top 100 — all of which happened in their home arena, to boot. The Wildcats suffered their lone loss in their conference opener against Stanford (played at a neutral location in Santa Cruz, Calif.) by a score of 78-75.

So, to sum up: Colorado and Arizona have feasted on lesser opponents, and one of them is about to gain its best win of the season.

ATS Analysis

Here’s why these teams should be cast in different light by prospective bettors.

Colorado is 5-2 against the spread, and really, they’ve been better than that record indications. Their two ATS losses have come by a combined 3.5 points, while four of their ATS wins have come by margins of 13 points or more.

Arizona, meanwhile, is just 2-5 ATS, with three consecutive ATS losses. Interestingly, both of the Wildcats’ ATS wins came by margins of at least nine points — but four of their ATS losses have come by 8.5 or more.

Arizona’s only experience as an underdog this season came as 1-point underdogs against Stanford, which they did not cover. Colorado has also been an underdog just once, and they failed to cover a 6-point spread against Tennessee.

Head-to-Head Matchup

In the past three years, Colorado and Arizona have split their six meetings ATS, 3-3. The Wildcats have won four of those games in straight up fashion. They played just once last year, a 75-53 thrashing in favor of Arizona, but none of the Wildcats’ four scorers in double figures was back this season.

The Buffaloes have been impressive ATS, which is always good to see. But this spread is so tight that we think it’s worth the extra value to take them on the moneyline.

Pick: Colorado -104

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