Fernando Tatis Jr has already ascended to superstardom in just his second MLB season. Photo by @DannyVietti (Twitter).
- Already the favorite, San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen his NL MVP odds shorten further
- Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ has crept into the top 10
- Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, and Manny Machado are all in the mix to win the award
Fernando Tatis Jr. is already a superstar. In just his second big-league season, he is leading the San Diego Padres towards the playoffs. Tatis’ MVP case has strengthened over the last week. His average NL MVP odds were +417 on Aug. 24. As of today, he is the +300 favorite, with DraftKings pricing him as short as +275.
Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ has come into the mix, too. He wasn’t on the board a week ago, now he’s at an average of +2000. Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon has faded from an average of +767 to +1467, while his teammate Trevor Story has moved improved to +1667 from +2000.
The short season makes award odds particularly volatile. Here’s how DraftKings sees the top-40 NL MVP favorites.
National League MVP Odds
| Player | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) | +275 |
| Mookie Betts (Dodgers) | +550 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (Giants) | +550 |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | +1300 |
| Charlie Blackmon (Rockies) | +1500 |
| Trevor Story (Rockies) | +1500 |
| Manny Machado (Padres) | +2000 |
| Ian Happ (Cubs) | +2000 |
| Freddie Freeman (Braves) | +2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto (Phillies) | +2500 |
| Anthony Rizzo (Cubs) | +2500 |
| Juan Soto (Nationals) | +2500 |
| Nolan Arenado (Rockies) | +3300 |
| Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) | +3300 |
| Corey Seager (Dodgers) | +3300 |
| Trea Turner (Nationals) | +3300 |
| Christian Yelich (Brewers) | +3300 |
| Nicholas Castellanos (Reds) | +3300 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) | +4000 |
| Kris Bryant (Cubs) | +4000 |
| Javier Baez (Cubs) | +4000 |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | +4000 |
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | +5000 |
| Starling Marte (Marlins) | +5000 |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | +5000 |
| Joey Votto (Reds) | +5000 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals) | +6600 |
| Rhys Hoskins (Phillies) | +6600 |
| Jeff McNeil (Mets) | +6600 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | +6600 |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | +6600 |
| Jacob deGrom (Mets) | +6600 |
| Willson Contreras (Cubs) | +6600 |
| Josh Bell (Pirates) | +8000 |
| Kyle Schwarber (Cubs) | +8000 |
| Justin Turner (Dodgers) | +8000 |
| Keston Hiura (Brewers) | +10000 |
| Andrew McCutchen (Phillies) | +12500 |
| Mike Moustakas (Reds) | +12500 |
| Victor Robles (Nationals) | +15000 |
Odds as of September 1.
Tatis Does It All
Tatis is a legitimate five-tool stud. He leads the NL in home runs, he’s third in stolen bases, he plays elite defense at shortstop, and his 179 wRC+ is good for sixth in the National League. It’s not hard to see why Tatis is the MVP favorite, particularly as the Padres surge. The team has gone 11-3 since an 11-12 start to the season.
The raw power Tatis has is being combined with superb plate discipline. He’s walking in over 10% of his plate appearances, and his chase rate has decreased by nearly 5% from last season. There’s nothing in Tatis’ advanced numbers that suggest this is an unsustainable hot streak. Sitting in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and drawing walks, Tatis is an impossible hitter to pitch to, and once he gets on, he’s always a threat to run.
The MLB leaders in WAR, per Fangraphs:
1. Fernando Tatis, Jr. 2.6
2. Mookie Betts 2.0
2. Mike Yastrzemski 2.0
4. Anthony Rendon 1.9
5. Trea Turner 1.8
6. Trevor Story 1.8— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) September 1, 2020
Team success doesn’t tend to influence MVP voters too much, but the Padres finally contending can’t hurt Tatis’ candidacy.
Harper Is Crushing It
Bryce Harper has set such high standards in his career. The former MVP has normalized greatness.
A perennial MVP candidate, Harper is among the contenders this year, even though he’s underperforming his expected numbers. His .999 OPS is great but, per Baseball Savant, Harper is making contact that deserves better results.
After Phillies lost 5 straight
Bryce Harper said Phillies needed to win 9 of 10
“It needs to happen”
Phillies have won 6 of 7 pic.twitter.com/3e4L7MdG2y
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) September 1, 2020
An average of .284 is 31 points below his expected batting average, and his .568 slugging is 80 points below his expected slugging. His walk rate (19.4%) is only bettered by Paul Goldschmidt in the National League.
Harper’s 30.8% line-drive rate is the highest since his spectacular 2015 MVP campaign. A 15.4% barrel rate is by far the highest of his career. What is already a brilliant season from the Phillies star could yet move to another level.
Keep an Eye on Happ
Happ had a strong week. He hit three homers over the final two games of the Cubs’ four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds, taking his OPS to 1.041. Like Tatis and Harper, he has been controlling his plate appearances, and has a 16.5% walk rate.
Ian Happ having himself a damn Sunday pic.twitter.com/hruz9yaTZm
— Red Line Radio (@RedLineRadio) August 30, 2020
Happ swings hard, and that shows in his 11th percentile whiff rate. That can be the makings of a streaky hitter. As his 94th percentile hard hit rate shows, however, there’s power in his game that could see his numbers explode over a short period. If those couple of games were the start of a hot streak, Happ could quickly be among the MVP frontrunners – he’s already seventh in wRC+.
Harper represents the best value in this market right now, but Happ is a name to watch out for in the coming days.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
source https://casinonewsblogger.com/tatis-jrs-nl-mvp-odds-get-even-shorter-cubs-happ-enters-top-ten/
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