Friday, 31 July 2020

New Jersey Poker Player Jonathan Lessin Takes Down 2020 WSOP Online Senior’s Event


Screenshot From WSOP.comDespite the 50-year age requirement, there were still 541 seniors who were able to figure out their respected laptops and tablets to sign up for the $500 buy-in 2020 World Series of Poker Online event. After 179 rebuys, the total field size stood at 720 entries, creating an overall prize pool of $324,000.

After nearly 11 hours of play, it was New Jersey-based poker player Jonathan ‘SugarJ’ Lessin who came away with the title, the $64,411 first-place prize, and his first career gold bracelet.

This is Lessin’s second biggest tournament score. In 2011, he won a Borgata Winter Open side event for $87,998.

Lessin went into the final table as one of the biggest stacks, and rode that momentum to heads-up play. Despite starting with a 6:1 deficit, he fought his way back to earn the victory.

Other notables who made a deep run in the tournament included Al ‘BigAl16’ Riccobono (9th), Terry ‘mrterry007’ Fleischer (17th), Scott ‘intheblack14’ Epstein (24th), Jack ‘borgia92’ McClelland (40th), Greg ‘FossilMan’ Raymer (43rd), Phil ‘Lumestackin’ Hellmuth (67th), Layne ‘scoop87’ Flack (76th), Kenna ‘STAXS’ James (85th), Mitch ‘paltexnj’ Garshofsky (96th), Tom ‘suki1983’ McEvoy (97th), John ‘rainman3817’ Esposito (101st), Perry ‘The_Baiter’ Friedman (103rd), Roland ‘prngls12’ Israelashvili (107th), and Bernard ‘Dogger99’ Lee (108th).

Here is a look at the payouts awarded at the final table:

Place Name Earnings
1 Jonathan ‘SugarJ’ Lessin $64,411
2 James ‘muskrrr’ Moore $39,819
3 Allen ‘Nucman’ Pock $27,864
4 Brian ‘GGTDM’ McGill $19,796
5 Greg ‘gwitsch’ Witsch $14,256
6 Stuart ‘Dusty16’ Kemble $10,432
7 Michael ‘bigfatpirate’ Whidden $7,743
8 Carmen ‘cjdstable’ Dimaria $5,832
9 Al ‘BigAl16’ Riccobono $4,471

 

 

 





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Should I Stay or Should I Go? When, and Why, to Leave the Poker Table


This pandemic has been extremely difficult for those of us who have gotten used to playing live poker. Our public poker rooms shut down – and few if any home games remain. We long for them to reopen and restart.

remain or leave

Deciding to leave a game is one thing. But as many of us have learned, following through with that decision is another. (Image: PartnerHope)

That’s happening now. We’re eagerly heading back to play, but like someone starving from not having eaten for a long while, we have to be careful we don’t over-indulge when we get back to the table. We need to think about how long we’ll stay in a game, and when and why we should leave.

Generally, there are two schools of thought on the matter:

Staying in a Good Game vs. Setting Limits

The first is that one should stay as long as the game is good. That’s to say, you should play as long as you believe you have an advantage over the other players.  Whether you’re up or down, winning or losing, you should stay for as long as you recognize that you have an advantage over the other players in the game.

When things change — your focus wanes, your opponents change, your edge dulls — you should think about leaving.

The other school of thought is that you should set limits to determine when you should leave. These limits come in three varieties: loss limits, win limits, and time limits. All are nearly self-explanatory, and all come with their advantages and disadvantages. To make sure there’s no confusion, let break down each option to assess their merits, or lack thereof.

Loss Limits

A loss limit sets a pre-determined limit of how much you’re prepared to lose. Lose that amount and you stop playing.

If you’re playing $1/3 No-Limit Hold’em, you might set a limit of two maximum $500 buy-ins. If you lose $1,000 you call it quits.

The apparent advantage of setting a loss limit is that you’re assured of leaving the casino with no greater loss than the amount you decided in advance you could afford. By deciding that you’re prepared to lose up to $1,000, and adhering to that limit, you won’t end up with some larger, catastrophic loss by chasing your initial loss.

The disadvantage of a loss limit is that it fails to account for the most important ingredient in profitable play — whether you have an advantage over the game you’re in.

If you’ve lost $1,000 but the game is great, why go? It’s one long game, after all.  Critics of setting a loss limit point out that if you plan in advance to set a loss limit of $1,000, you’re likely to fulfill your plans. And that’s not a good route to profitable play.

Win Limits 

A player who sets a win limit leaves the game after winning a predetermined sum, regardless of the condition of the game or the length of time they’ve been playing. With a $1,000 win limit, for example, if you stack two fish in his first hand and win $1,388, you get up and leave the game.

The win limit seemingly protects your profitable session by leaving before you can lose your winnings back.

The disadvantage is that you fail to capitalize on any skill disparity you may have over your opponents. Good games aren’t always available. If you’re winning because you’re playing against terrible and deep-pocketed opponents, leaving when you’ve reached your limit is depriving yourself of future earnings that you can earn against less skillful players.

Time Limits

A time limit is a predetermined limit on how long you play. If you set a six-hour limit, for example, you leave after six hours, regardless of how you’re doing or how good the game is.

The advantage of this method is that you protect yourself from the erosive effects of staying too long. You also separate your decision to leave from how you’re doing – preventing a downward spiral brought on by wanting to stay until you’re even or you’re too tired to play at your best.

Time limits, like win and loss limits, prevent you from staying longer to take advantage of a game that may be profitable for you.

Opportunity Costs?

At first blush, it seems obvious why we shouldn’t set any artificial limits on the duration of our play. The logic is inescapable. Players gain an advantage over the game if they are sufficiently skilled to win money from lesser-skilled opponents.

That’s the precise reason many of us play the game. With proper practice and good game selection, we make money in the long run – unlike so many other forms of gambling.

Profitable playing opportunities don’t always exist. Sometimes, games are filled with a bunch of nits, rocks, and highly skilled players like ourselves. We sometimes have no advantage. So, when game conditions are such that we do have an advantage, we’re making an error by not playing, even if some artificial limits have been reached.

Self-Assessment Not Always Possible

There is a problem with this logic, however. It presumes that we always know when game conditions are favorable and unfavorable. It also presumes that we can always accurately assess when our skills have diminished and when the game is no longer “good.”

Finally, it presumes that we can do this when we’re in the midst of a long, unprofitable session that might be putting us on tilt.

While there are surely professionals who are very good at sizing up a game, no matter how they’re doing and how long they’ve been playing, most recreational players cannot.

Similarly, there are some players who have a very good finger on the pulse of their own ability to play at their best. Many, however, find that accurate self-assessment during long and difficult sessions is very difficult, as is having the fortitude to leave under those circumstances.

Drinking is Like Poker

Accurately assessing the state of our poker-playing abilities in the middle of the game isn’t far removed from assessing the state of our sobriety during a night on the town.

How many of us have the internal strength of self-assessment combined with self-control to honestly recognize when we have .08% alcohol in our blood and are impaired? And who among us with that ability has the self-control and discipline not to drive when we so assess our alcohol level to be at .08% or higher?

Just from anecdotal experience, I can say that it’s a truly exceptional person who can drink moderately at a party and then declare that they will take a taxi, or ask someone to drive them home because they are “over the limit.”

The condition of being somewhat inebriated contributes to a lack of self-control and difficulty in self-assessment, as people tend to overestimate their ability to drive well; and when they are drinking, they are especially prone to think their driving is fine.

Conclusion

In an ideal world, we would play poker only when it’s profitable to do so, and leave when it isn’t. But we don’t live in an ideal world. We live in the real world where self-perception and assessment are often diminished just when we need them to be at their best.

With that being the case, it may sometimes be useful to come up with artificial limits based on any of the three criteria of time, loss, or win, that force us away from the table at least temporarily.

While not ideal, these limits could trigger us to at least take a break from the game so that we can more clearly determine whether we’re playing well or are fatigued, whether we’re still making good decisions, and whether or not we’re still better than our opponents.

If we believe conditions are still in our favor, we can stay for a while longer.  If not, then we leave.

Written by

Ashley Adams

Adams’ poker career began as a winning 7-card stud player at Foxwoods in the ’90s. From there he’d go on to author poker books, and in 2004 launch House of Cards Radio, now the longest running poker radio show in history. His latest book — Winning Poker in 30 Minutes a Day (D&B Publishing, 2020) – provides a step-by-step guide for break-even or losing no-limit hold’em players to transform to someone who can beat typical games.

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Lakers vs Raptors Odds, Lines and Spread


Anthony Davis dribbling with his back turned to Jayson Tatum

Anthony Davis shone against the Clippers on Thursday – will the Raptors be able to slow him down? Photo by @taylorcsnow (Twitter).

  • Los Angeles Lakers got the better of the Clippers on Thursday – they face the Toronto Raptors in their second seeding game
  • With the Boston Celtics in pursuit, the Raptors are looking to cling on to the two seed in the East
  • Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below

The Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers, the teams owning the third and second-best records in the NBA respectively, matchup on August 1 in Orlando.

It will be Toronto’s first competitive game in the bubble – they are competing for the two seed with the Boston Celtics to gain a potentially more favorable first-round matchup. The Lakers were in action on Thursday, playing out an epic with the Clippers and eventually coming out on top, thanks to a big night from Anthony Davis.

FanDuel’s latest Toronto Raptors vs Los Angeles Lakers odds have the Lakers as 3.5-point favourites – what’s the best bet?

Toronto Raptors vs Los Angeles Lakers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at Fanduel Total
Toronto Raptors +3.5 (-110) +136 O 215.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 (-110) -162 U 215.5 (-110)

Odds taken July 31

Davis’ Dominance

The non-LeBron minutes have been a problem this season. A lack of ball handling has hampered them offensively when James sits. With the Clippers surging, Anthony Davis took charge, playing the five on Thursday night, hitting consecutive treys to halt the Clippers’ run, and playing his Defensive-Player-of-the-Year-best at the other end.

With the floor spread and everyone a threat from deep, Davis was given space to work and he showed his range of scoring, but it was the spell without LeBron that was perhaps most impressive.

Toronto owns the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. They have size and a variety of options to throw at Davis. He was the Lakers’ main force in their loss to the Raps back in November, scoring 27 points on 50% shooting. Davis hit the ground running – how Toronto guard him will be key part of this matchup.

Raptors’ Versatility

Nick Nurse is unafraid to try things. His boldness, and effectiveness from those decisions, makes him a frontrunner for Coach of the Year. He tried out some big lineups in the scrimmage games, putting Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol on the court at the same time.

That is one method to combat Davis. He will bully smaller players in the post or simply shoot over them. His mobility is a factor too, of course, but size is crucial, and throwing that Raptors’ trio on the floor is one way to go. Going big makes sense against the Lakers – for large portions of the game, they will be playing one of their centers (JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard), Davis and LeBron. A back court with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet might need the size of Siakam, Ibaka and Gasol.

Toronto don’t boast individual elite defenders. They are a defensive unit that is superbly coached and has no weak links. It is no fluke that they are the best non-Milwaukee team by defensive rating.

The Raps will be looking to slow Davis and LeBron down, challenging the scoring depth of this Lakers roster. Dion Waiters is competing for minutes in the playoff rotation, and after a strong performance against the Clips, Frank Vogel will no doubt be keen to see if he can back that up.

Low-Scoring Affair

Rust was evident on the offensive for the Lakers at times on Thursday. There were plenty of turnovers, James struggled from the field, and they had periods where they struggled to get good looks. The Clippers defended well, and the same can be expected of Toronto.

These are not just two of the top three by record, they are two of the top three defensively. Both are middle of the pack in pace. Toronto are 14th in offense and are playing their first competitive game in four months.

Defense could dominate offense in this weekend’s game – a low-scoring encounter is likely.

Pick: Under 215.5 points (-110)

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Flamengo’s new hire Torrent has the Pep pedigree


Brazilian giants Flamengo had a taste of excellence with Portuguese coach Jorge Jesus — and now they want some more. The new boss is Domenec Torrent, who spent the 2018-19 in charge of New York City FC, but is best known for the decade he spent as assistant to Pep Guardiola. The clear hope is that some of that Guardiola magic will rub off in Rio de Janeiro.

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The option to hire a Spanish coach is both highly exciting and a little bit worrying.

One of the key dates in the recent history of Brazilian football is December 18th, 2011, when Santos — spearheaded by the teenage Neymar took on Guardiola’s Barcelona — and were brushed aside with ridiculous ease. Both the 4-0 scoreline and the way it was achieved came as a huge shock to the Brazilian game. What Barcelona did — a possession-based game full of small, agile midfielders — had been regarded as obsolete in Brazil, where the dominant belief was that the physical development of the sport made it necessary to fill the team with tall players and go on the counter attack.

In the post-match press conference, Guardiola stuck in the stiletto. His team, he said, treated the ball the way that, according to his grandfather, Brazil used to do. Torrent was on Guardiola’s coaching staff, and followed him to Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

Brazilian club football proved unable — and in many cases unwilling — to respond to the challenge of Guardiola. This helps explain the success of Jorge Jesus with Flamengo — a triumph measured not just by the national and South American titles, but chiefly by the way they were achieved. Jesus played a high defensive line and camped his team in the opponent’s half, pressing when they lost the ball, and able to construct quick passing moves when they won possession. All this is standard practice in top class European football, which has been so influenced by Guardiola. But in Brazil it was as if Flamengo had invented gunpowder.

Hiring Guardiola’s former assistant, then, is an important admission from Brazil’s leading club that the local culture has much to learn. There were times when Brazilian football led the world in tactical terms — the country invented the back four, for example. But, perhaps sated by success, the local game became lazy and needs to catch up.

But herein lies a problem. Not everyone agrees. Many Brazilian coaches and some in the local media are clearly uncomfortable with the current fashion for foreign coaches. Chief among them is former national team and Real Madrid boss Vanderlei Luxemburgo, currently in charge of Palmeiras. “Guardiola is more marketing than coach,” he declared on a TV show in October 2016. Should Torrent fall short of expectations, Luxemburgo will certainly not be the only one to celebrate. Many in Brazil will feel vindicated.

Torrent has a hard act to follow in Jorge Jesus — and lacks some of the advantages of his Portuguese predecessor.

Firstly, he has less experience. The function and responsibilities of the head coach are very different from those of the assistant. True, he had taken charge of teams before backing up Guardiola. And since then, of course, came his successful spell in New York. But in terms of pressure and media scrutiny there is no comparison between coaching an MLS club and the most popular team in a football-crazy country like Brazil.

Moreover, Jorge Jesus could take advantage of a crucial and extremely rare commodity when he took over at Flamengo in the middle of last year — time. The domestic game shut down for a few weeks while Brazil hosted the Copa America. Jorge Jesus had a prolonged period to work with his players on the training ground, and to study his opponents. Torrent, in contrast, goes straight into the deep end. His first game is on August 9th, in the opening round of the Brazilian Championship, at home to Atletico Mineiro, who are looking in fine form under Argentine coach Jorge Sampaoli.

Assuming the national league and the Copa Libertadores go ahead as planned, the matches will be coming thick and fast. Torrent will have to get on top of his new job quickly — and show results both to Flamengo fans who have become accustomed to success with style, and to those who will seeking to find fault with his every decision.

This is the consequence of spending a decade as assistant to Guardiola. Torrent is already 58. He is in a hurry to make a name for himself as head coach. Flamengo offer him a fast track to glory — and the risk of being derailed.



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Reds vs Tigers Picks and Odds


Cincinnati Reds

Trevor Bauer allowed just two hits and struck out 13 in his season debut against the Detroit Tigers. Photo by @DavidPJablonski (Twitter).

  • The Cincinnati Reds are -152 favorites over the Detroit Tigers on Saturday (Aug. 1, 1:10 pm EST)
  • Trevor Bauer (0-0, 1.42 ERA) will start for Cincy, while Detroit will give the ball to Michael Fulmer (0-1, 13.50 ERA)
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The MLB season isn’t even two weeks old and Saturday will already mark the fifth meeting between the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers. Detroit took two of three from Cincinnati last weekend, and owns a better overall record coming in, yet are still a home underdog at Comerica Park Saturday versus the Reds.

Reds vs Tigers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Cincinnati Reds -152 -1.5 (+100) Over 9.0 (-115)
Detroit Tigers +140 +1.5 (-120) Under 9.0 (-115)

Odds taken July 31st.

Cincy opened as a -152 favorite in the Reds vs Tigers odds in a game that features a total of 9. Trevor Bauer will get the ball for Cincinnati when the two teams take the field at 1:10 pm EST, and he’ll be looking to repeat the dominant performance he had against Detroit last Sunday.

Bauer Was at His Best

In his first start of the season, Bauer was simply outstanding. He held the Tigers to just two hits over 6.1 innings and the lone blemish on his boxscore was a solo home run to Niko Goodrum.

The 29-year-old looked like the 2018 All-Star version of himself, striking out 13 batters and issuing just a single walk. He was in complete control of his full arsenal of pitches, and allowed only 25% of the hitters he faced to make hard contact.

Bauer has plenty of experience against this Tigers lineup, having spent most of the past seven seasons in Cleveland. He owns a 10-6 lifetime mark versus them, and has a history of pitching well at Comerica Park. The right-hander is 5-2 in Detroit, with a 3.31 ERA and a 52-10 strikeout-to-walk rate.

Tigers Career Stats vs Bauer

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Niko Goodrum 19 7 3 5 7 .368
Jonathan Schoop 26 6 0 4 8 .261
Miguel Cabrera 40 12 1 4 8 .300
C.J. Cron 14 2 0 1 4 .143
Harold Castro 10 3 1 2 4 .300
Victor Reyes 7 1 0 0 4 .143
Christin Stewart 15 3 1 1 2 .200
Austine Romine 4 1 0 2 2 .250
Jacoby Jones 16 4 0 0 6 .250

Speaking of strikeouts, Detroit’s number two through five hitters were a combined 0-11, with six strikeouts in their first meeting versus Bauer.

Fulmer Was Flat Out Awful

While Bauer shined in his season debut, the same cannot be said for Tigers starter Michael Fulmer. The 27-year-old was hit hard by KC of all teams, surrendering four runs in just 2.2 innings of work.

The outing was his first since undergoing Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2019 season. After a stellar rookie year in 2016, Fulmer has steadily gone down hill. 2018 was especially tough to watch, as he won just three of his 24 starts and posted a career worst 4.69 ERA.

Reds Career Stats vs Fulmer

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Shogo Akiyama 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Joey Votto 3 0 0 0 2 .000
Eugenio Suarez 3 0 1 1 2 .333
Mike Moustakas 10 3 1 3 1 .300
Nicholas Castellanos 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Jesse Winker 1 1 0 0 0 1.000
Nick Senzel 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Freddy Galvis 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Tucker Barnhart 2 1 0 0 0 .500

The Reds organization has only faced Fulmer once, so their 2020 lineup has little experience against him. Nevertheless, Cincy’s offense is quite formidable, ranking third in runs scored per game (6.17) entering play Friday.

Back Bauer and the Reds

On paper this game is a mismatch. The Reds are expected to compete for a playoff spot in the NL, while the Tigers are projected to finish with the third fewest wins.

Cincy has a big advantage in the starting pitching department with Bauer, and its offense has been much stronger to start the season than Detroit’s. Through the first seven games of the season, the Tigers have averaged just four runs per outing, and in games where they’ve faced an elite starter (vs Bauer, and Sonny Gray), they’ve scored only four runs total.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+100)

 

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Transfer Talk – Arsenal can get Coutinho for £9m but Barca want Guendouzi


The coronavirus pandemic has made the transfer market uncertain — and you can find out when the windows open here — but here are the rumours floating around Europe’s big leagues and beyond.

Arsenal to grab Coutinho for ‘bargain’ price

Barcelona castaway Philippe Coutinho could be on his way to Arsenal for just £9 million — but only if Barca are able to get Matteo Guendouzi in the swap deal.

The Independent have reported on Friday that Gunners boss Mikel Arteta could have the ex-Liverpool forward in his squad next term, who spent a lacklustre loan spell at Bayern Munich.

Negotiations between Arsenal and Barcelona are in early stages, but victory in tomorrow’s FA Cup final against Chelsea (Stream LIVE/U.S. only: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+).will significantly add to Arteta’s budget and possibly pave the way for the deal.

A deal is unlikely to be simple, though, given that Juventus are also interested in Guendouzi. The report states that Arsenal are exploring the possibility of a swap move with the Italian club also.

Wilson to follow in Ake’s footsteps?

A week after AFC Bournemouth‘s relegation from the Premier League, Cherries’ star striker Callum Wilson appears to be close to securing an exit from the Vitality Stadium.

The Telegraph have reported that Wilson, 28, has told his Dorset teammates that he considers playing in the Premier League to be crucial if he is to build on his international career.

Tottenham Hotspur are reportedly leading the race to prize Wilson away from Bournemouth, who are set to lose defender Nathan Ake to Manchester City for a whopping £41m.

Wilson scored eight goals in 35 Premier League games last season.

Toffees’ £18m Regulion bid may tempt Madrid

Sky Sports have claimed that Everton lead the race to secure the services of Real Madrid left-back Sergio Reguilon, adding that an £18m bid has been placed for the 23-year-old.

Madrid fan favourite Reguilon has attracted the interest of several Premier League clubs, but the Toffees’ latest bid could well tempt the Spanish club to part with their star academy graduate. Part of the reason behind Reguilon’s possible departure is finances, with reports claiming Madrid must raise £180m this summer to balance books.

Meanwhile in Merseyside, Carlo Ancelotti wishes to sign Regulion as a replacement for the recently retired Leighton Baines.

Tap-Ins

– A not-so-warm Premier League welcome could greet Brentford if they beat Fulham in the Championship playoff final on Tuesday. That’s because club target Folarin Balogun — a 19-year-old striker at Arsenal — has been valued at £8m, according to Sky Sports. The Bees may see that as too steep a price for Balogun, is yet to make a senior appearance for the Gunners.

Jeremy Ngakia seems to have raised some eyebrows at West Ham United as the youngster has reportedly decided to leave the side and join relegated Watford. According to the Guardian, the 19-year-old felt his future wasn’t at London Stadium and instead will try his luck with the Championship-bound crosstown club.



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Heat vs Nuggets Picks and Odds


Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic

The Denver Nuggets open their NBA restart games with a tough matchup against the Miami Heat. Photo from @NBABRasil (Twitter).

  • The Denver Nuggets are 2-point favorites against the Miami Heat on Saturday afternoon
  • Both teams are already locked into playoff positions, but they each have a chance to improve their seeding before the end of the regular season
  • Read below for a deeper look at this Heat-Nuggets matchup

The NBA regular season is back in full swing, and with it comes some tremendous matchups between playoff teams. One of the most intriguing of those games is Saturday’s contest that will feature the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets.

Denver and Miami are both set to resume seasons that were going very well, but it’s Nikola Jokic and company that have the edge in the Heat vs Nuggets odds.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +2 (-110) +100 O 211 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -2 (-110) -118 U 211 (-110)

Odds taken July 31

This will be the first regular season matchup of the restart for both teams, so the biggest narrative for both sides will be the inevitable rust that has to be shaken off. Both teams have looked good in scrimmage action so far, but no team in the entire league is back to midseason form yet.

How Were These Teams Performing ATS?

The long layoff has obviously thrown a wrench into the momentum of the 2019-20 NBA season, but the information gleaned from earlier in the year can still be valuable. One piece of that information pertaining to this game is that, in their respective situations, a look at the Nuggets vs Heat betting trends shows that neither Miami or Denver has performed very well.

As an underdog, the Heat have posted a record of 9-11-1. Denver, as a favorite, sit at a similarly underwhelming 22-24-3. These marks hold with the teams’ overall ATS records, both Miami’s 33-30-2 and Denver’s 29-32-4.

Can Denver Keep the Heat From Getting Hot?

Nothing knocks the rust off like stringing together a few big shots, and no team is more dangerous in that situation than Miami. If the Nuggets are weak on the perimeter, Miami can do some damage.

The Heat are first in the NBA in three-point shooting at 38.3%, and they aren’t conservative about taking those shots, ranking in the top third of the league in attempts. Duncan Robinson leads the team, knocking down 44.8% of his shots on 8.4 attempts per game.

Through the scrimmages, a key issue for the Nuggets was defending the three ball. If that problem already exists, it could be exploited by Miami to great success on Saturday.

Tale-of-the-Tape

This matchup is one of the most underrated of the league’s re-opening weekend. Yes, Lakers-Clippers was tremendous, and games like Rockets-Mavericks and Bucks-Celtics will be fun, but Nuggets-Heat features two playoff teams who, on paper, are about as close as it gets. The Nuggets twitter account put out a graphic that lays this out.

Things are also tight when it comes to points per game (slight edge to Miami), three-point percentage (Miami), and field goal percentage (even).

Who Has the Edge?

Each of these teams has a chance to make a strong playoff run, but in this matchup, it’s Denver that has the edge. There are really two key factors here that give Mike Malone’s team the advantage.

The first is a couple of high-level creators on offense. Nikola Jokic is a tremendous passing big man, and Jamal Murray is becoming one of the great offensive guards in the league. The roster in Miami is a strong, well-balanced one, but it doesn’t have the sort of passers and offense-generators that Denver does.

Secondly, the deep Nugget bench is a huge asset. With a unit that includes Michael Porter Jr, Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant, and Will Barton, plus a few other productive NBA role players, Denver has a deeper pool of talent to dip into. As guys work back into shape in the bubble, fresh legs are a big advantage.

The pick: Nuggets ML (-118)

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Orlando City SC vs. LAFC – Football Match Stats – July 31, 2020


LAFC 3-0 San Jose Earthquakes at half-time. Carlos Vela with two goals to take him up to 26 for the season. His second was memorable, evading four opposition players and nonchalantly stroking the ball in. Earthquakes coach Matias Almeyda was sent off five minutes before half-time for arguing with the officials. It’s going to take a minor miracle for the Earthquakes to get back into this one, even if they did have a strong penalty shout and a couple of chances.

Tom Marshall, Mexico correspondent345d ago



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Thursday, 30 July 2020

Best Bets this weekend at Goodwood and Galway



Friday at Goodwood

13:45 – Saint Clair Oak Tree Stakes

Ryan: “One Master is top rated in the race and I thought she would take plenty of beating here.”

Kevin: “You’d have to be brave backing One Master from stall 1. We know what Goodwood is like and I’d be inclined to back something each-way against here and Breathtaking Look is the one for me. She tends to make the running or sit handy and she is the one for me.”

14:15 – Bonhams Stakes

Kevin: “Khaloosy is potentially a Group 1 horse. His performance on the clock at Ascot was very strong and while this course will test him differently I would be surprised if he doesn’t win well here.”

Ryan: “My Oberon looked classy at York and I think he can put it up to the favourite here.”

14:15 – Golden Mile

Ryan: “One that I like at a price is Urban Icon. He ran a creditable race in the Summer Mile last time out and he appeals to be as an each-way shot.”

Kevin: “Baltic Baron shaped well in this race last year when not getting the clearest of passages. He wears blinkers for the first time here and if things fall right for him he looks to be well handicapped.”

15:15 – Qatar Stakes

Kevin: “This course and distance really suits Battaash and as a racing fan one would hope he can put on a show. I’d love to see how Liberty Beach will be ridden here. If they manage to get her in behind a couple and come home late, she can run a big race.”

Ryan: “For me the play in the race is Liberty Beach in the winner without Battaash market. She is a very consistent filly and will run her race.”

15:45 – Queens Plate

Ryan: “Pablo Escobarr has a bit to find on the ratings, he seems to save his best form over this trip and I can see him putting it up to Communique and Desert Encounter.”

Friday at Galway

18:15 – Guinness Handicap Hurdle

Kevin: Stratum is a horse that I have liked for a while. It would be hard to be bullish about him but I can see him going close.

17:15 – Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle

Ryan: I expect Millyinthemiddle to run a big race here. She was 4lbs out of the handicap earlier in the week and I can see her winning here.”

Friday at Leopardstown

15:05 – Holden Plant Rentals Handicap

Kevin: “Flying Scotsman won’t be terribly well in here. He’s won twice at Galway this week already and if he runs he must have a great chance.”

Ryan: “I wouldn’t be surprised if Flying Scotsman would have a bit more in hand here.”

Saturday at Goodwood

15:00 – Lillie Langtry Stakes

Kevin: “Enbihaar is very talented and a beautiful model of a horse. She was very impressive in this race last year. I was happy with her comeback and going back up to this trip will suit.”

Ryan: “Provided the ground doesn’t turn too slow it’s very hard to get away from Enbihaar.”

15:35 – Stewards Cup

Ryan: “Kimifive ran in the race last year and should finish a good deal closer this time around.”

Kevin: “Gulliver would be my fancy here. He got worried out of it last time but can go close.”

Saturday at Galway

17:15 – Galway Shopping Centre Handicap (Premier Handicap)

Ryan: “Princess Zoe showed a good turn of foot earlier in the week and I’d like to see her go in again.”

Kevin: “One that I like War Diary. He finished fourth in this race last year and made a nice start for new connections last month. You would probably rather better ground but I think still can run a good race.”





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Fulham vs. Cardiff City – Football Match Report – July 30, 2020


Fulham advanced to next week’s Championship playoff final despite a 2-1 home loss to Cardiff City on Thursday after edging past their opponents 3-2 on aggregate.

They will face local rivals Brentford, who beat Swansea City by the same aggregate score after Wednesday’s 3-1 victory, in an all south-west London final at Wembley next week (stream live on ESPN+ in the U.S.)

– Replay: Fulham hang on to beat Cardiff
Stream ESPN FC Daily on ESPN+ (U.S. only)

Stream Prem promotion final on ESPN+

In a furious start, Cardiff, who had lost the first leg 2-0, stunned the hosts after eight minutes with centre-back Curtis Nelson’s header.

But Fulham struck back 24 seconds after the restart, snatching an equaliser through Neeskens Kebano to restore their two-goal advantage in the tie.

After conceding possession to Fulham for the rest of the first half, substitute Lee Tomlin put Cardiff back in front two minutes after the restart to set up a tense second half.

Cardiff keeper Alex Smithies kept his team in the game on several occasions with a string of superb saves, including tipping a Aboubakar Kamara shot onto the post in the 68th minute.

But despite late Cardiff pressure for a goal that would have sent the game into extra time, Fulham hung on to earn the chance to return to the Premier League after one season in the second tier.

“It wasn’t pretty at all. It was the worst start you can think of,” Fulham captain Tom Cairney told Sky. “These 2-0 leads are a bit weird in your head. It feels comfortable but is not at the same time.

“We let ourselves down by not playing our normal game, and we invited pressure. But in the second half we dug in deep we got over the line.”

Fulham, who had finished one place above Cardiff in the final Championship table, last won a Championship playoff final two years ago, beating Aston Villa 1-0 at Wembley to earn promotion.

Brentford are looking to earn a spot in the top division for the first time in 73 years as they prepare to move to their new Brentford Community Stadium home for the 2020-21 campaign.



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PokerNews Podcast: Tony Dunst & Roberto Romanello Discuss Bracelet Wins; Negreanu vs. Polk


Guests:
Tony Dunst Roberto Romanello

In the latest edition of the PokerNews Podcast, Sarah Herring and Jeff Platt break down the latest in the 2020 World Series of Poker online bracelet events.

They even welcome guests World Poker Tour commentator Tony Dunst, who captured his second gold bracelet, and first-time bracelet winner Roberto Romanello, who by doing so completed poker’s Triple Crown.

They also dive headfirst into all the poker drama this week, including the escalating feud between Daniel Negreanu and Doug Polk, Ryan Laplante‘s past comments, and more.

Toss in GGPoker and WPT World Online Championship updates, and it’s a must-listen episode.

This week’s sponsors: Oddschecker US, GG Poker, and Run It Once (Click link for special PN Pod rakeback deal).

Time Stamps

Time Topic
00:25 Faded Spades / RunGood Freeroll
07:00 What is allowed to be considered in the Triple Crown now?
09:00 Daniel Negreanu Gets super angry at Twitch Troll
17:00 Ryan Laplante Drama
23:30 Doug Makes Video to reignite Daniel Drama
30:00 Sponsor: Run It Once
31:00 WSOP.com Bracelets this last week
40:00 Tony Dunst joins the show
40:30 Tennis and changes since COVID-19
43:20 Realizing he needed to step up his game
46:15 Mike Sexton Championship Cup
47:30 WPT World Online Championships
49:15 Winning his second bracelet
52:30 One of the most generous things that ever happened to Tony in Poker
01:01:00 Learn WPT
01:02:00 Sponsor: GG Poker
01:03:45 Online Bracelets on GG
01:47:43 Roberto Romanello joins the show
01:08:45 Being a father and a poker player
01:16:45 Winning a bracelet online compared to live
01:28:30 Roberto’s style of poker
01:31:30 WPT World Online Championships
01:36:30 News from the rest of the GG side of Online Bracelets
01:40:00 High Stakes Duel Kicking off w Antonio Esfandiari vs Phil Hellmuth
01:47:31 Oddschecker Ad

Tell us who you want to hear from. Let us know what you think of the show — tweet about the podcast using #PNPod, and be sure to follow Sarah Herring, Jeff Platt and Chad Holloway on Twitter.

Subscribe to the PokerNews Podcast on Apple Podcasts here!

Follow updates from the 2020 WSOP Online here!

Recommended for you

PokerNews Podcast: Pat Lyons Discusses 2020 WSOP Online Win, Women Excelling
PokerNews Podcast: Pat Lyons Discusses 2020 WSOP Online Win, Women Excelling





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Lakers Go from 4-Point Favorites vs Clippers to 25-Point Underdogs in Sportsbook’s ‘Spread the Love’ Promotion


NBA's court at Disney

The NBA restarts its season July 30 with two games, including the LA Clippers vs LA Lakers. Photo from @JabariJYoung

  • FanDuel sportsbook is running a “Spread the Love” promotion for the Clippers vs Lakers game tonight (July 30)
  • The spread began the day at LA Lakers -4, but has been on the move all day
  • See how you can partake in FanDuel’s promotion here

The Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers will tip-off at 9pm ET in the second game of the NBA’s restart. And as if that’s not exciting enough, FanDuel sportsbook is running a “Spread the Love” promotion that is as close to it gets as free money.

For every 2,500 bettors who wager on the Lakers to cover, the sportsbook will move the line one point in their favor. The Clippers vs Lakers line opened the day at LAL -4, but is currently available at LAL +25 (and counting) with this promotion.

Clippers vs Lakers Odds with “Spread the Love” Promotion

Team Spread on July 30 AM FanDuel’s Current “Spread the Love” Line
Los Angeles Clippers +4 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers -4 (-110) +25 (-110)

Odds updated at 3:56 PM ET

Terms of Promotion

The sportsbook has not set any limit on how big the line can get, so expect it to keep growing leading up to tip-off. The best part of this promotion, though, is FanDuel is going to cover your bet at whatever the line closes at before the game starts.

This means if you bet the Lakers at +5 earlier today with the “Spread the Love” promotion, you’re actually going to get the +25 line that we’re at right now – and your line will continue to change as the Lakers continue getting more and more points. You are not locked into the spread you bet.

Of course, there are some conditions with this promotion. First, you do have to place your wager through the “Spread the Love” promotion at FanDuel. Simply betting on the game through their sportsbook is not enough. When you land on the Basketball page of FanDuel’s sportsbook, you’ll see the ad in the carousel. So just click there.

Second, you are unable to place a bet on the Clippers through this promotion. So don’t get your hopes up of being able to sprinkle a buck or two on LAC at an alternate spread of -40 at +15000 odds.

Finally, there is, of course, a max bet of $50 allowed with this promotion. FanDuel is happy to giveaway some free money to each of their bettors, but they’re not going to let you empty their bank on this one.

How Big Will the Spread Get?

The swing from -4 to +25 is a 29-point swing, meaning more than 72,500 people have bet the Lakers at FanDuel. It’s hard to say how many people will take advantage of this promotion, but we can look to the past to see how this promotion performed.

The sportsbook also ran this for the Colts vs Saints game in December of 2019. Indianapolis was +8.5 at other books, but closed at +51 with the promotion – a 42.5-point swing. But that line was moving one point for every 250 wagers. This means at least 10,625 users participated.

More recently, we saw this promotion in a February game between the Bucks and 76ers. Milwaukee was -8.5 in that game, but closed at +59.5, a 68-point swing. Again, it wasn’t taking 2,500 bets to move the line. This time it was 1,000 for it to shift one point, meaning 68,000 people participated.

With more states legalizing sports betting, and more people becoming interested in sports betting, I suspect we’re nowhere near where this line will close. If I had to guess, I’d say we’re going to end up somewhere around LAL +36.

How Much is FanDuel Going to Giveaway?

If no one else were to bet on the Lakers in this promotion, FanDuel would be paying out a little more than 72,500 people, assuming the Lakers don’t get blown out tonight.

At -110 odds, each of those people would receive an additional $45.45 from the sportsbook, assuming each person does bet the full $50 – why wouldn’t you?! This comes to a little more than $3,295,125 being paid out. If the line were to get to my LAL +36 estimate, FanDuel would be paying out roughly $4,090,500.

Enjoy your free money!

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Why Liverpool need to spend big to retain the title


At a time of celebration – and relief – for Liverpool, after an agonising wait to lift their first league title in 30 years, this is perhaps an unpopular moment to warn of harsher times ahead. But Jurgen Klopp no doubt hopes to build a dynasty at Anfield and make sure this team is remembered as the equals of those built by Bob Paisley, Bill Shankly, and Kenny Dalglish; as serial winners.

A truncated pre-season ahead means attention must immediately turn to the 2020/21 season, and as things stand Liverpool are not necessarily in the strongest position to retain the Premier League title.

Manchester City will surely roar back next year, refocused and re-energised by a couple of big signings, meaning Liverpool will most likely need to win close to 100 points once again. Here’s why the club ought to spend big this summer to stay in pole position.

Liverpool’s slowdown in 2020

Very few teams in modern football history have maintained their momentum for more than two years. At a certain point things need to be refreshed, either because of a natural decline as players age, opponents working out how to counteract the system, or because the manager’s words no longer carry quite the same urgency. Liverpool have won 96 and 99 points in their last two seasons – and in 2020 there have been some tentative signs they are beginning to slow down.

Klopp’s side won just seven of their final 15 games in all competitions this season, and despite the considerable caveat that Liverpool had nothing to play for across their final seven league games, fans may nevertheless be concerned about performance levels.

Liverpool’s xG stats show them to be a ruthlessly efficient team in front of goal, which is by no means a bad thing but does suggest these tight margins may not be sustainable. According to understat.com, they outperformed their xG by 9.81 goals and conceded 6.57 fewer than expected to give an xPoints total of just 74, some 25 points below their actual total.

Out-performing xG figures is often misread as being lucky, when it is more likely that the enormous difference between Liverpool’s actual points and expected points reflects exceptional finishing, exceptional defending, and their extraordinary mental resolve. However, the difference is big enough to ask questions – and the sight test backs this up.

There have been occasions in 2020 when Liverpool have squeezed through tight games, when getting over the line has felt like a bit of a slog, and it would only take a small dip in form – whether that’s confidence, quality, or fitness – for Liverpool to lose that edge. After all, in the 31 league games it took them to win the title, 14 were won by a single goal.

1280 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool.jpg

Opponents beginning to find tactical gaps

One reason for the slight decline has been opposition managers gradually honing their tactics. Liverpool’s attacking variety is arguably their biggest strength, making them almost impossible to negate, and yet Watford and Sheffield United in particular have provided their rivals with something of a template for success. This is usually how big teams begin to fade: one club finds the right method, and before long others copy the model.

As long ago as September, Sheffield United showed that a back five is the way to go, because it means three centre-backs can go man-to-man with the forwards while the wing-backs push up to close down Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson, leaving Liverpool’s workmanlike midfield with static possession. Chris Wilder’s side lost 1-0 after Dean Henderson let a tame shot squirt under his body.

Since then, Wolves, Arsenal, and Everton have all at least come close to taking points with a back five, and yet surprisingly few opponents have opted to do the same against Liverpool. That will surely change sooner rather than later.

Watford’s approach in their 3-0 win in March wasn’t novel, but it did prove extreme defensive organisation and simple, long-ball counter-attacks can work against Klopp’s men. Nigel Pearson essentially played a back six, using his wingers to get tight to the Liverpool full-backs, and then instructed his players to swing long balls into the flanks, avoiding Virgil van Dijk’s side.

Watford were the first English team to take points against Liverpool’s first team since Man Utd in October. Since then, a further five clubs have done so. Something psychological shifted that day.

Liverpool need a deeper bench

Liverpool fans might look back on the club’s decision not to sign Timo Werner, on the basis Klopp could not guarantee him first-team football, as a symbolically significant moment for this side. That kind of loyalty towards the current first 11 is not something that bothers Man City, for example, who rightly assume the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Bernardo Silva are happy warming the bench half the season if it means winning trophies.

To win 90+ points year after year, Liverpool need to be able to rely on players beyond their starting 11, and recent evidence suggests the current crop just aren’t at the Werner level. In the 0-0 draw with Everton, for example, Alexander-Arnold was considerably less effective without Robertson counter-balancing him on the left, while the front line was much slower with Takumi Minamino instead of Mohamed Salah.

klopp v guardiola 1280.jpg

It was a similar story for the draw against Brighton, with Neco Williams and Curtis Jones in the side, and consistently this season Liverpool’s finely-tuned attacking rhythms have been disrupted by small changes. One major injury could be all it takes, then, to knock Liverpool by just enough to give Man City the advantage.

Reasons to be positive…

But pretty much every argument made here could have been presented 12 months ago, when Liverpool missed out on the title despite winning 97 points. Back then, every pundit thought their levels were unsustainable for a second year and Liverpool would fall away – only for Klopp and his players to prove us wrong despite spending just £9 million in the summer.

What’s more, there is a good chance Minamino will find his feet next season, becoming a key member of the side, while Naby Keita’s exceptional performance in the 5-3 victory over Chelsea suggests he may finally be ready to become the line-breaking presence in central midfield Liverpool have been missing since Philippe Coutinho left the club.

If there is one man who can be relied upon to consistently upset the odds, it’s Klopp. We have been here before, predicting a slowdown that never came. But surely even this Liverpool team cannot sustain three consecutive years at the very top of the game, at least not without spending big.





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