Monday, 2 March 2020

Horizon League Tournament Opening Odds Favor Wright State (-115) and Northern Kentucky (+170)


Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, host of the 2020 Horizon Conference Tournament. Photo by Mberkery1 (wikimedia commons).

  • The 2020 Horizon League Tournament takes place Mar. 3rd to 10th
  • Wright State and Northern Kentucky are Green Bay averages 82.2 points per game, which is third best in the country
  • Check out our prediction on who will be punching their ticket to the big dance from the Horizon Conference

The Horizon League conference tournament runs from March 3rd to 10th. First-round and quarterfinal games take place at on-campus sites while the semifinals and finals will be at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.

Wright State  (25-6, 15-3 Horizon) captured its first regular-season title and the number-one seed in the tournament with a 64-62 win over second-place Northern Kentucky (21-9, 13-5 Horizon) earlier this week.

The Raiders are now odds-on favorites to win the conference tournament, with the Norse again second. As shown in the bracket underneath the odds table, both teams receive a double-bye to the semifinals. Third-seeded Green Bay received a bye to the quarterfinals while the rest of the field will have to win four straight games to win the tournament.

2020 Horizon Conference Tournament Odds

Team (Seed) Odds at MyBookie
Wright State (#1) -115
Northern Kentucky (#2) +170
Green Bay (#3) +900
UIC (#4) +1000
Youngstown State (#5) +2000
Oakland (#6) +2500
Cleveland State (#7) +6500
Milwaukee (#8) +8000
IUPUI (#9) +9000

Odds taken March 2, 2020.

 

2020 Horizon League Tournament Bracket

2020 Horizon League tournament bracket
2020 Horizon League tournament bracket

Wright State or Northern Kentucky?

Wright State won both their meetings with Northern Kentucky this year. Their most recent victory was on the road, where they squeaked by the Norse 64-62. Their first meeting with Northern Kentucky was pure domination, routing NKU 95-63 at home.

Wright State’s offense is spectacular to watch. They average 81.8 points per game, which is fifth-best in the country. They shoot a high percentage as a team (46.2 percent) and work hard on the offensive glass, averaging 12.2 ORPG.

Their rebound advantage comes in large part to their number-one option, Loudon Love. The 6’8 center out of Illinois is averaging 16.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game this season.He has 12 double-doubles, including a 20-point and 14-rebound performance in their most recent win over NKU.

Northern Kentucky plays a more defense-oriented game than Wright State. The Norse have the best defense in the conference giving up just 65.3 points per game this season. Forcing turnovers with quick hands is their game as they averaged 8.1 steals per game this year.

Northern Kentucky only had one bad loss in conference play at the hands of Detroit. Their other losses came to Wright State (twice), at Green Bay, and at home to UIC.

The Norse are led by seniors Dantez Walton and Tyler Sharpe. Walton missed over a month due to a chest injury, but he is still the leading scorer on the team averaging 16.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Sharpe is averaging 14.9 points and 2.2 assists per game this season.

Walton could very well be the difference-maker for Northern Kentucky in this tournament. I still believe Wright State has the upper hand with their powerful offense, but Northern Kentucky’s stout defense with a healthy Dantez Walton will be dangerous.

The Best of the Rest

Green Bay and UIC are the two other schools that can compete in this tournament. Youngstown State, Oakland, and Milwaukee had decent seasons but do not have the necessary components to make a run for their conference title.

UIC had an up and down start to the Horizon league play this season. The Flames started 1-4 but rallied back to finish fourth in the conference with a 15-16 record overall and a 10-8 conference record. They had big wins over Northern Kentucky, Green Bay, and most recently Oakland to give them some momentum heading into the tournament.

Despite their 16-15 overall record, Green Bay is one of the more sneakier good teams in the Horizon. According to KenPom, they have the highest-rated offensive rating in the conference at 105.6.

They average 82.2 points per game and move the ball around really well averaging 16.4 assists per game. Their entire offense is run through senior guard JayQuan McCloud, who has averaged 17.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists this season.

Best Bet

There is not a whole lot of value in taking Wright State at -115 to win, so I am going to look elsewhere. Northern Kentucky’s defense does look appetizing, but I am mesmerized by Green Bay’s ability to score the ball.

In the last month, Green Bay has scored over 90 points in five games. JayQuan McCloud has also been on fire averaging 23.8 points per game in his last five contests. Green Bay finished third which gives them a bye to the quarterfinals where they will most likely play either Cleveland State or Oakland.

Green Bay has beaten Wright State and Northern Kentucky this season, and I believe they have the ability to do it again. This is definitely more of a value play so do not get greedy, but McCloud and the Phoenix will be out to bust Horizon Conference Tournament brackets this week.

Best Bet: Green Bay +900


SBD’s NCAA conference tournament coverage:

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