Monday 30 March 2020

Where’s Joe? Dropping in the Election Odds, That’s Where


Joe Biden making a point

Though he’s jumped ahead of Donald Trump in most polls, Joe Biden’s average election odds election odds fell from +100 to +130 over the last week. Photo by: Gage Skidmore (Flckr).

  • Joe Biden’s average election odds election odds fell from +100 to +130 over the last week 
  • Biden is ahead in the polls, however. Which of these two barometers should you be following the closest?
  • Analysis, best bets and predictions on this data can be found in the following story

The odds in the 2020 US Presidential election are beginning to social distance themselves from Joe Biden.

Across the leading sportsbooks, the latest 2020 Presidential election odds are growing in favor of Donald Trump and going away from Biden.

The average odds on Democratic frontrunner Biden being elected to the White House on Nov. 3rd fell from +100 to +130 over the past week.

One leading sportsbook has Biden as long as +150.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Odds at Bovada
Donald Trump -125
Joe Biden +150
Andrew Cuomo +1000
Bernie Sanders +3000
Mike Pence +6000
Hillary Clinton +6600
Nikki Haley +10000
Michelle Obama +20000
Tulsi Gabbard +50000

Odds taken Mar. 30.

In the same time period, incumbent Republican Trump’s averages are improving. His odds improved slightly from -118 to -123.

#Where’sJoe?

Biden’s campaign was just gaining a head of steam. He’d pretty much eliminated Bernie Sanders from the race for the Democratic nomination.

That’s when the coronavirus stepped up and infected the race for the Presidency like a batch of toxic Bernie Bros on Twitter. The hashtag #where’sjoe began trending on social media.

His campaign on hold, Biden is left like a lot of Americans, working from home. He’s set up a studio in his house from which he’s been addressing the nation.

It’s a far cry from the regular national audience Trump accesses via his daily coronavirus briefings.

Cuomo Becoming A Factor

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo isn’t a candidate for the Presidency. However, people watching his daily fact-based addresses about the impact of COVID-19 on New York are impressed. Cuomo displays preparedness and coolness under fire.

It’s a complete 180 from Trump’s daily self-aggrandizing dog and pony show filled with misinformation, half truths and provable outright lies.

That doesn’t mean Cuomo should be considered a contender in 2020. But what he’s doing is offering Americans a look at what a calm, collected leader who also happens to be a Democrat looks like when they’re in charge. Even Trump suggested on Fox News that Cuomo would be a better candidate for President than Biden.

The major networks are carrying Trump and Cuomo’s press briefings live. They’re showing Biden on tape delay.

Polls Favor Joe

Biden still holds the edge on Trump in the vast majority of polls. Even that advantage is slipping, though.

In February, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Biden with a healthy 52-45% lead over Trump. In their latest poll released Monday, the Bdien advantage has shrunk to 49-47%.

Even more disconcerting for Biden is the lack of excitement over his candidacy among those who identify as Democrats. Just 24% indicated that they were very enthusiastic about Biden as a Presidential candidate.

But 53% of Trump supporters are very enthusiastic about his candidacy.

The same poll gave Trump a 45-43% edge over Biden in trust to handle the coronavirus outbreak.

Trump Stumbles Onward

The master media manipulator, Trump appears to have bumbled his way into another success story. He’s as high as 49% in approval rating  in some polls since he began his daily coronavirus briefings. That’s the highest rating of his Presidency.

This is the distinct advantage afforded to an incumbent. They’re in charge of the show. And with Americans forced to stay home, it’s been even more pronounced.

Historically, Presidential popularity surges at the start of a crisis.

As more Americans die from the coronavirus, and the outbreak continues to surge, that could swing this election to Biden.

Pick: Joe Biden (+150)

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