Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Rob Gronkowski 2020 Season Props


Tampa Bay Buccaneers in practice

Will Rob Gronkowski catch at least six touchdowns for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020? Photo by MacDill Air Force Base (public domain).

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have acquired tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has also unretired to join the team
  • Gronkowski had 47 catches for 682 yards and three touchdowns in his final season in New England (2018)
  • Gronk has had at least six touchdown grabs in every season in which he’s played at least 14 games

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made a splash on Tuesday when they acquired former New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and convinced him to unretire. Their Super Bowl odds shortened and now sportsbooks have posted a slew of Gronk receiving props for the upcoming season. Let’s take a look and see if there’s any value on the board.

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Odds

Prop Over Odds Under Odds
Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards During 2020 Regular Season 650 -120 650 -120
Rob Gronkowski Receiving Touchdowns During 2020 Regular Season 5.5 -120 5.5 -120

All odds taken Apr. 22.

Gronk Didn’t Have Much Juice In 2018

The last time we saw Rob Gronkowski on the field, it didn’t look like he had much juice. He played 13 games in the 2018 season and had 47 catches for 682 yards and three touchdowns. The three touchdown grabs were tied for a career-low. He had 13 catches for 191 yards in the playoffs.

At the same time, it’s worth remembering that Gronkowski is still just 30 years old (will be 31 in May). He was really beat up in his last couple of seasons and was noticeably limping at his final Super Bowl. During his one-year retirement, he talked about some gruesome head injuries, including once where he talked about being able to put indents in his head.

There’s no question that he looked a little washed in 2018 but a year of rest and recovery might bring some pep back in his step. And remember, he’s still pretty young. He’s in the conversation to be the best tight end ever, averaging 0.69 touchdowns per game, so even if he’s at 80% off his peak, he’ll be an asset.

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Total Receiving Yards

It feels weird to think that Brady-to-Gronk is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneers connection (and not a Patriots one) but we’ll have to get used to it. I’m expecting we’ll see plenty of it this season. The 650-yard target is a very low number in my eyes; Gronk surpassed that number in an injury-shortened 2018 season.

As a matter of fact, Gronk’s lowest receiving total was in 2016 when he played just eight games but he still had 540 receiving yards.  I’d wait until the NFL Draft to see if O.J. Howard gets moved and, if he does, I’d be betting the over.

Total Touchdowns

Gronk’s touchdown total sits at 5.5 and I think that’s also low. We’re talking about an offense that was No. 1 in the NFL in passing last season. Of course, things have changed a lot but I’m still expecting them to air it out. As long as Gronk is healthy, he’s going to have plenty of opportunities in the red zone.

To me, this is a safer bet than the yards because even if Gronk doesn’t regain that pep in his step and get over the 650 receiving yards, he should still be an asset in the red zone. We’re talking about a guy who is 6’7, 260+ pounds and has great chemistry with Brady. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin around, teams can’t gang up on Gronk either.

Historically, Gronk has had at least six touchdown grabs in every season that he’s played at least 14 games. If he stays healthy, the over should hit here.

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