Casino News: April 2020

Thursday, 30 April 2020

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Judge, Torres, LeMahieu All See AL MVP Odds Get Longer; Why Are Sharps Fading Yankees?

DJ LeMahieu and Yankee teammates celebrating in the dugout

With a shortened 2020 MLB season in tow, and Giancarlo Stanton healthy again, the New York Yankees’ stars have all seen their AL MVP odds slide. Photo via @BronxPinstripes (Twitter).

Every New York Yankee that was on the AL MVP odds board in late February has seen his odds fade in the eight weeks
Giancarlo Stanton, who suffered a calf strain in late February, is back to full health and makes his first appearance on the list
The 2020 MLB season remains in flux, but the AL MVP race is worth keeping an eye on

When baseball returns, will teams be subjected to a quarantined season in Arizona? Will the league be realigned to cut down on travel? Will fans be allowed to watch live?

None of those questions can be answered yet. But here’s another one to consider: why do the latest 2020 AL MVP odds have every New York Yankees player with longer odds, on average, than they had two months ago?

AL MVP odds

Player (Team)	Odds on Feb. 28	Current odds
Mike Trout (LAA)	-104	+106
Aaron Judge (NYY)	+1026	+1075
Gleyber Torres (NYY)	+1251	+1526
Francisco Lindor (CLE)	+1764	+1565
Alex Bregman (HOU)	+1414	+1540
Shohei Ohtani (LAA)	+1702	+2004
Matt Chapman (OAK)	+2254	+2031
Anthony Rendon (LAA)	+2780	+2409
Josh Donaldson (MIN)	+3595	+3208
Marcus Semien (OAK)	+3005	+3209
Rafael Devers (BOS)	+2955	+3334
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)	OFF	+3500
Jose Ramirez (CLE)	+4250	+3575
Jose Altuve (HOU)	+3625	+3625
Gerrit Cole (NYY)	+3130	+3759
…	…	…
DJ LeMahieu (NYY)	+2507	+4263
…	…	…
Gary Sanchez (NYY)	+5000	+5875

Odds as of April 30.

It might seem weird that the Yankees’ odds have changed without any baseball being played during the COVID-19 pandemic. But there are reasons for this, which we’ll dive into below.

When Will the MLB, NBA, NHL, PGA Tour Return? See Estimated Dates for All Major Leagues

Summoning Stanton

New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has a mammoth swing that can change the complexion of a baseball game. In sickness and in health, he can change the complexion of the MVP race, too.

Stanton, who slugged 59 home runs on his way to winning NL MVP in 2017, suffered a calf strain in spring training that would’ve kept him out if the season had started on time (hence why his Feb. 28 MVP odds were “OFF”).

Aaron Boone checks in with:

✅ Judge status update
✅ Stanton status update
✅ Paxton status update
✅ Thoughts on Red Sox punishment

… and so much more on the latest #YESWereHere with @M_Marakovits. pic.twitter.com/9yj9hG5LGO

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) April 23, 2020

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said recently that Stanton is doing well, adding, “When we get ready to go, he should certainly be ready to be back and part of things.”

That’s good for Stanton, but it helps explain the dip in his teammates’ MVP odds. Adding another star to the mix dilutes the level of production each individual player can be credited with.

Ba de ya – say do you remember.
Ba de ya- Stanton in September. pic.twitter.com/nmJ8yGWulQ

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 21, 2019

Now, of course every player is still responsible for what they do in their own at-bats or outings on the mound. But with a team as loaded as the Yankees, it is more difficult to single out an individual for such a prestigious award.

Boston’s Mookie Betts did win the 2018 AL MVP with teammate J.D. Martinez finishing fourth. But the Yankees currently have five players in the top-16 AL MVP odds, which could prove to be too crowded.

Unpredictability Will Abound

It’s a simple concept: the smaller the sample, the greater the unpredictability.

The Yankees had a 12.7-percent chance of winning the World Series before COVID-19, the highest in the AL, according to FanGraphs. Those odds subsequently shrunk in projections of shorter seasons: 140 games (12 percent), 110 games (9.7 percent) and 81 games (8.1 percent).

“They’re better. They’re more poised with more experience. They have power AND contact.”@AROD breaks down how the @Yankees have improved since their 2017 playoffs appearance. pic.twitter.com/U1bgjjO0A5

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 12, 2019

In a shorter season — which is essentially a guarantee at this point — there is less time for the good teams to rise to the top and the bad teams to sink to the bottom.

Same goes for players. If Aaron Judge has a 1-for-31 start to an 81-game season, it’ll hurt him quite a bit more than if he did that to start a 162-game season. Games lost due to injury will also be more costly, and the Yankees have a litany of players with significant injury histories.

What’s The Best Bet?

Mike Trout has seen his odds-on status (-104) fade to plus money in the last eight weeks (presumably thanks to the smaller sample size of the 2020 season). He is the best player in baseball and should still command the bulk of one’s consideration for the MVP vote.

Mike Trout homered on the first pitch he saw, wearing Tyler Skaggs’ No. 45 👏

(via @Angels)pic.twitter.com/CaNRlXlrKj

— ESPN (@espn) July 13, 2019

But if there was a time to go off the board a bit, now’s the time! Matt Chapman (+2301) and Jose Altuve (+3625) both make interesting cases in what could be the most unpredictable MLB season in history.

Jordan Horrobin

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Sports Writer

Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.

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Nevada Governor Eases Lockdown Restrictions, But No Word Yet On Casinos

Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak outlined his plan for reopening the Nevada economy in a press conference Thursday evening, but he failed to give any timeline or details on when the gaming industry would be open for business again.

“We must now chart a responsible path forward that will get Nevadans back to work under a new normal,” said Sisolak.

Sisolak outlined the first few steps in his “Roadmap to Recovery” just a day after he announced that he would be extending his stay-at-home order until May 15. He will, however, be easing some restrictions on certain businesses surrounding outdoor activities like golf and allowing for curbside pickup for retailers.

According to the governor, his roadmap is a gradual reopening of the economy through multiple phases of reopening businesses.

Phase 1 will be implemented on or before May 15, depending on what the data looks like. Sisolak said that the infections reached a peak on April 24 and have been declining since that point. He wants to make sure that trend continues before starting his plan.

During the first phase of the plan, businesses will start to reopen, while continuing to implement social distancing measures. The medical community will trace the contacts of those who tested positive for the virus to continue to contain its spread. Sisolak also encouraged Nevadans to continue using face masks during the first phase.

He said that phase 1 will last between 2-3 weeks, before entering subsequent phases. Bars, nightclubs, malls, sporting events, concerts, large religious gatherings, and gaming establishments will still be closed ruing this time.

When the conference was opened for questions, Sisolak clarified his remarks about the gaming industry during phase one.

“Casinos will not be open in the beginning of phase 1 and I want to make sure that is interpreted appropriately,” said Sisolak.

At what point in the timeline will Sisolak begin to allow casinos to reopen? He is not exactly sure.

Throughout the press conference, Sisolak said he would be in discussions with local communities and experts in different sectors. His plan will remain “flexible at all times.”

“We don’t really know how many phases there are,” said Sisolak. “There might be three phases. There might be four phases.”

In a Good Morning America interview Wednesday, Sisolak said casinos wouldn’t be open until phase three or four.

The gaming question is inherently more important to Nevada than the other states in the Western State Compact, an agreement between the governors of Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada and California to share information and the best practices for containing the virus.

The gaming industry makes up a much larger portion of the state economy than any other state in the country. In 2018, the gaming industry created a statewide economic impact of $67.6 billion and made up 37.5 percent of the state government’s revenue. It also employed 450,100 workers.

The industry has been closed since Sisolak ordered casinos to cease operations on March 17.

The rumor mill has been churning for some time about when the Las Vegas Strip will be open for business again.

Wynn Resorts CEO Matt Maddox met with President Trump at a White House roundtable discussion and said that he believed Las Vegas casinos could be open by Memorial Day. Caesars Entertainment, Boyd Gaming and Station Casinos were beginning to accept reservations on their website May 15. Following Sisolak’s remarks, it is clear those properties will not have any guests on that date.

In an interview with The Nevada Independent, Nevada Gaming Control Board Chair Sandra Douglas Morgan said that those businesses were trying to get a pulse on the market.

“They’re running a business, so they’re basing their reservation dates, I think, probably on just estimating when they could reopen and maybe getting a sense of the willingness of people to come back,” said Morgan. “I think people are just trying to say they’re willing to open.”

In that same interview, Morgan also said that casinos will have to submit a reopening plan to the board before they are permitted to do business.

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Fade the Braves and Ride the Rays if MLB Realigns for Shortened 2020 Season

If MLB proceeds with the proposed realignment plan, the Atlanta Braves could be saddled with a very difficult schedule in 2020. Photo by Ian D’Andrea (Flickr).

MLB is contemplating a three-division (East, West and Central), 10-team realignment plan for the shortened 2020 season
The Central appears to be the most balanced division, making it more difficult for Atlanta to exceed its win percentage prop
Tampa Bay (East) and San Diego (West) look like two teams with a great shot to exceed their win-percentage props

Major League Baseball could look a lot different this year if the three-division, 10-team realignment plan it’s considering is approved. The proposal, which still needs medical clearance given the COVID-19 pandemic, would keep many of baseball’s biggest rivals together, and reduce the amount of travel needed.

Breaking MLB: The MLB is considering breaking the league down to three Divisions and keeping play within the Division, thus eliminating the AL & NL for the 2020 Season. #MLBNews #MLBUpdate #MLB2020 #Covid19Update pic.twitter.com/SjzoqiV3jL

— Julian Guilarte (@JulianGuilarte1) April 28, 2020

MLB officials are reportedly optimistic this plan can be implemented by no later than July 2, allowing teams to play at least 100 regular-season games solely within their new division.

The shakeup could drastically influence the 2020 MLB win-percentage odds, so let’s investigate which teams a potential realignment will hurt and who it will help.

2020 MLB Win Percentage Odds

Team	Division	Over/Under Odds
Baltimore Orioles	EAST	35.0% (-110o/-110u)
Boston Red Sox	EAST	52.0% (-110o/-110u)
Miami Marlins	EAST	40.0% (-110o/-110u)
New York Mets	EAST	53.5% (-110o/-110u)
New York Yankees	EAST	62.0% (-110o/-110u)
Philadelphia Phillies	EAST	52.5% (-110o/-110u)
Pittsburgh Pirates	EAST	42.0% (-110o/-110u)
Toronto Blue Jays	EAST	46.5% (-110o/-110u)
Tampa Bay Rays	EAST	56.5% (-110o/-110u)
Washington Nationals	EAST	55.0% (-110o/-110u)
Team	Division	Over/Under Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks	WEST	52.0% (-110o/-110u)
Colorado Rockies	WEST	45.0% (-110o/-110u)
Houston Astros	WEST	58.5% (-110o/-110u)
Los Angeles Angels	WEST	52.5% (-110o/-110u)
Los Angeles Dodgers	WEST	62.5% (-110o/-110u)
Oakland Athletics	WEST	55.0% (-110o/-110u)
San Diego Padres	WEST	50.5% (-110o/-110u)
San Francisco Giants	WEST	42.0% (-110o/-110u)
Seattle Mariners	WEST	41.0% (-110o/-110u)
Texas Rangers	WEST	47.5% (-110o/-110u)
Team	Division	Over/Under Odds
Atlanta Braves	CENTRAL	56.0% (-110o/-110u)
Chicago Cubs	CENTRAL	53.0% (-110o/-110u)
Chicago White Sox	CENTRAL	52.0% (-110o/-110u)
Cincinnati Reds	CENTRAL	52.5% (-110o/-110u)
Cleveland Indians	CENTRAL	53.5% (-110o/-110u)
Detroit Tigers	CENTRAL	35.5% (-110o/-110u)
Kansas City Royals	CENTRAL	40.0% (-110o/-110u)
Milwaukee Brewers	CENTRAL	51.0% (-110o/-110u)
Minnesota Twins	CENTRAL	57.5% (-110o/-110u)
St. Louis Cardinals	CENTRAL	53.5% (-110o/-110u)

Odds taken April 30th.

A Raw Deal for the Braves

The Atlanta Braves are fresh off back-to-back NL East division titles and currently own the fourth-best World Series odds. The 2020 season was looking like a great opportunity for them to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2001, but if this realignment proposal is passed, they’ll be stuck in the most competitive division.

Maybe I’m desperate for baseball but the MLB plan that’s under discussion is good and I like the division realignment. The AL and NL ceased to be distinct entities a long time ago. The line between the AFC and NFC is practically invisible.

— Rob Hart (@RobHartWBBM) April 29, 2020

Just two teams in the Central (Kansas City and Detroit) are projected to win less than 50% of their games in 2020, compared to four teams in the East and five teams in the West. Atlanta will no longer have the luxury of beating up on the lowly Marlins (they were 15-4 vs Miami in 2019), and 55% of their games will be against pitching staffs that ranked top-nine in fewest runs allowed last season.

2020 World Series Odds Tracker

The Braves won 59% of their contests a year ago, but got quite lucky to do so. They rated out as the second-luckiest team in baseball (behind only Milwaukee) and were 12 games above .500 in one-run affairs. Regression is likely to hit hard in 2020 and keep them under their win percentage prop.

Pick: Braves Under 56.0% (-110)

The Rays are for Real

Over in the East, things are looking bright for Tampa Bay. Not only will they continue to feast on AL East bottom-feeders Toronto and Baltimore, but they’ll also have the luxury of playing 22% of their games against Miami and Pittsburgh, two clubs who combined to win just 39% of their outings in 2019. More easy wins for the Rays.

Tampa Bay advanced to the AL Divisional series a year ago on the strength of its pitching, but lacked enough offense to compete with the heavy hitters. They addressed that issue in the offseason, acquiring Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and 33-home run man Hunter Renfroe.

Hunter Renfroe. Grand slam. Ballgame!

The Padres win 8-5 on the walk-off 💪 pic.twitter.com/7MBuBHLtwL

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 6, 2019

The proposed realignment will also match them up with rivals Boston and New York, plus a trio of quality NL East opponents, including the defending champion Washington Nationals. That may seem daunting, but the Rays were 12 games above. 500 in the AL East last year, and had little trouble with NL opposition, posting a 14-6 record in interleague play.

Pick: Rays Over 56.5% (-110)

Padres Present Value

Another team with a great chance to exceed its win percentage is San Diego. The Padres line currently sits at 50.5% which is below the 51.9% projection assigned to them by FanGraphs. Under the proposed realignment, they’ll play in the West, which is by far the weakest of the three divisions. Yes, it’s loaded up top with Los Angeles and Houston, but five of the 10 teams (Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco, Texas and Seattle) are all projected to play sub .500 baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. just went 468 feet

FOUR. HUNDRED. SIXTY. EIGHT. ☄️

(via @Padres) pic.twitter.com/tqSvF1HPcx

— Bleacher Report MLB (@BR_MLB) July 20, 2019

San Diego is stacked on offense with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado leading the way, and have a plethora of young pitching talent. Chris Paddack is coming off a phenomenal rookie campaign in which he struck out nearly 27% of the batters he faced, and they’re set to welcome MacKenzie Gore, who was recently named baseball’s best pitching prospect by MLB executives.

As promised, here’s MacKenzie Gore *carving* for a three-pitch strikeout, the finale of which was a 96 mph heater. #Padres #Filth #WorthThe445WakeUpCall pic.twitter.com/TUq6BZBJYm

— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) March 20, 2019

They also added former 17-game winner Zach Davies to fill out their rotation, and with 55% of their games coming against projected inferior opponents, they’re a good bet to go over their win percentage.

Pick: Padres Over 50.5% (-110)

Chris Amberley

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Sport Writer & Editor

Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.

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Connectivity to score in finale at Tampa Bay Downs

Nick Shiambouros is back with two selections from Tampa Bay Downs…

Funhouse to score

Race 5 19:24 Tampa Bay Downs – K’s Funhouse

K’s Funhouse should appreciate the ease in grade in this $25k claimer on the turf.

This Palace Malice gelding finished fourth in a Maiden Special Weight over this course earlier this month. He met interference at the start, and subsequently failed to land a blow behind the easy winner. Trainer Tim Hamm drops him in class and stretches him out to a mile. His sire Palace Malice has done very well with runners up to around a mile, and slightly beyond. I think he will bounce out, and attempt to make all. He is attractively priced at [4.1] on the exchange.

Time to Connect

Race 8 21:00 Tampa Bay Downs- Connectivity

Connectivity should go close in this interesting finale.

This filly makes her first start for trainer Bob Hess after being in the care of Steve Asmussen. Her last effort at the Fairgrounds in March was a pretty good one. She finished down the field in a warm first level allowance race. She held every chance a furlong from home , but weakened quickly when the chips were down. She almost certainly needed the race, as this was her first start in almost five months. She has contested much higher company in the past, and was not disgraced in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream just over a year ago. Her work tab is respectable, and looks primed for a big effort. At present she is trading at [4.1] on the exchange.

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?

We cannot go back to how we were

This is the reaction of many to the pandemic, now stalking many lands. Globalisation – at least as enjoyed over the last few decades – is over, a reset of relations with China, a change to the state’s role to the chagrin of those wanting a small state, low taxes, free markets, borders will not be as open as before etc.,. Well, some or all of this is probably true. Big events do change the political and economic landscape – wars and serious economic shocks certainly do. Whether pandemics do is less clear. The Black Death certainly did. The Spanish flu, however, did not. Nor did the flu pandemics of 1957 (started in China) or 1968 – 1970 (from HK) which, in each case, killed between 1 – 4 million people worldwide and at least 30,00 in the U.K.

Whatever else we can say about this virus, the strategy currently employed by all governments to a greater or lesser extent to minimise its human impact, is having a serious, possibly catastrophic, economic impact, which will itself have a further damaging impact on those humans saved. How will the government’s support for those affected be paid for? How will the economic losses of the first half of this year (likely even longer) be paid for? Printing money? Borrowing? Taxation?

Let’s concentrate on the last for now. Taxes will likely have to rise at some point and it is inevitable – and even intimated by the Chancellor – that these will have to rise on those who have been shielded from them until now. All sorts of tax measures previously unthinkable or politically too dangerous may now be available: NI on the self-employed, for instance. Or wealth taxes – a Land Value Tax, say. Doubling the rate of IHT has been telegraphed as a possibility.

It is felt that much of what is needed can be obtained by taxing wealth and assets, as if it is only income which has taken a battering. Time to cast aside the reverence given to wealth and tax it too – and more heavily than it has been. The unspoken assumption is that there is a pot of gold marked “Wealth” which will provide all (or most) of what is needed. This may not be a safe assumption. Wealth has taken a hammering too: anyone with shares (so every working person with a pension) has seen their wealth reduce. The housing market is affected too. Commercial landlords cannot be certain of their current let alone future income. All businesses – and their investors – dependant on discretionary consumer spending will be feeling a lot more financially insecure than they were three months ago. Many will not survive. The golden goose is going to be quite a lot slimmer well before it gets plucked.

So let’s think some of these unthinkable thoughts and go beyond the political boundaries we have been used to. Unpalatable questions need asking. Sacred cows may need slaughtering:-

Who pays?

The incidence of tax. Not something which ever appears in a headline or which many understand but as important as tax rates. The narrower a tax base is, the more vulnerable an economy is to a disappearance or significant weakening of that base. It’s what happened post the GFC when all those banking revenues disappeared. It’s what is happening now, as people lose their jobs and reign in their spending. What do we do then?
Our income tax base is relatively narrow. All the push in recent years has been to take ever more people out of tax at the lower end. Maybe we need to ask why the poor should be shielded from paying any income tax – even if that contribution is very modest indeed. If payment of tax is the price to pay for our society and the services provided to all – whether they use them or not – shouldn’t all citizens contribute? So increase rates, yes, but make sure all contribute something. We could call this The Widow’s Mite approach to taxation.
The same can be said of corporation taxes or, more broadly, taxes on companies. Too many companies think a country is a market to make money from rather than a country to which obligations are owed because of the benefits companies derive from the services paid for by others. All very well big companies thanking us for staying at home in self-congratulatory advertisements while they make ever more money out of us. How about showing their thanks with some real cash. And not as part of some sweetheart deal with overworked tax inspectors either – as if they were doing us a favour – but as a matter of course.

Too many exemptions

Another version of the incidence issue. VAT is a tax largely imposed on discretionary spending of all kind, precisely the sort of spending which has been – and likely will continue to be – hit for some time to come. Oh dear. But also a tax whose incidence is narrower than in other European countries: it is charged on food and books in most European countries. Not here. The list of exemptions from VAT is notably longer in the U.K. than elsewhere in Europe. Is it now time to remove all these exemptions rather than increasing them, as the Chancellor has just done?
An Englishman’s home – yes it may be his castle and the subject of innumerable property programmes currently infesting day-time TV schedules. But why should it be exempt from CGT? The big criticism of a wealth tax is that a home confers no income so such a tax would need to be paid out of income, but without reference to its level. Or by selling the asset. In which case, why not explicitly levy the tax on sale when there can be no doubt about value or the seller’s ability to pay?
IHT – a tax which evokes strong emotions. There is little cool rationality when it comes to death and money, as any 19^th century French novelist could tell you. Taxing at a time of grief, taxing the instinct to help and protect those you love the most seems (to many) particularly cruel and hard-hearted. To others the “windfall” nature of inheritances feels like unfair luck, not earned or merited. It is a tax whose current form is perfectly designed both to annoy and to make it worthwhile to avoid: too high a rate and too many exemptions. Lower the rate significantly and abolish the exemptions. Even the one for spouses? Why not? Why should an adult spouse inherit an estate tax-free but not a child?
Remember the fuss big charity donors made when Osborne put a limit on the tax advantages gained by them. To hear the squeals you’d have thought that getting a tax advantage was more important than helping the charity. Surely not. Time for something like that again. Maybe time also to limit some of the other tax advantages enjoyed by charities, many of whom are pretty big businesses. We know about public schools. But why should donations to political parties be IHT exempt? Why should charities be exempt from tax on trading profits? Or business rates?

Putting our money where our clapping hands are

Rainbows and claps for the NHS and bin-men and other essential but largely invisible workers are doubtless very heart-warming. So how about paying directly for some of these services. We already do – for prescriptions and some local authority services. Why not extend this? If these services are so important to us why shouldn’t we want to pay more, especially for what we use directly. Not instead of taxation but in addition to. It’s not either or, even if that is how the argument has always been framed until now. We happily pay to see vets for our pets, rich and poor alike. If we can afford those costs, then we can surely afford to pay for our beloved NHS and other essential workers. Health charges are, after all, common elsewhere in Europe.

I am not advocating these. I can hear the cries of pain and “NFW” already. Many will be unpopular; others politically impossible. There may be good economic reasons against them, the most obvious being that a damaged economy does not need demand depressed further. There may be unintended consequences worse than the cure. There may well be better solutions and suggestions.

Still, it is striking that the solutions people often come up with after a crisis tend to be ones people wanted anyway rather than genuinely fresh thinking (I make no claims in this regard.) As with much else arising from this virus, difficult choices are having to be made – and will be needed long after this pandemic is resolved.

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Massive Winning Session Gives Phil Galfond Big Lead Over ‘ActionFreak’ in Galfond Challenge

April 30th, 2020 by Jon Sofen

Phil Galfond turned a huge profit on the third day of the Galfond Challenge against Greek online pro “ActionFreak.” He left Thursday’s match, played on his Run it Once poker site, with a €310,594 win. And he’s now clearly the favorite to win his second high-stakes PLO challenge in a row.

Phil Galfond is dominating the second (kind of third) Galfond Challenge. (Image: Run it Once)

The pot-limit Omaha specialists have now completed three sessions, accounting for 13.3 percent of the 15,000 hands they agreed to play. At the end of the €150/€300 cash game competition, the loser must pay the winner an additional €150,000.

A third Galfond Challenge is also currently running. Galfond is in the early stages of a high-stakes battle against Bill Perkins and the Thirst Lounge stream team. Due to scheduling issues with Perkins, the competition against “ActionFreak” will be played more frequently.

Too Early in the Galfond Challenge to Get Cocky

Viewers learned a valuable lesson in the first Galfond Challenge against “VeniVidi1993.” Pot-limit Omaha is a game of high-variance, meaning the swings are often massive.

Galfond, at the quarter pole in the 25,000-hand challenge, trailed by €900,000. But he rallied to narrowly defeat his formidable opponent in the final session. The poker site owner is in the midst of another tough test against a talented player, “ActionFreak,” and it’s far too early for him or his fans to celebrate.

Galfond won €310,594 during Thursday’s session, which lasted nearly six hours and 844 hands before the competitors called it a day. The former Full Tilt Poker legend — screen name “OMGClayAiken” — now has a €303,065 lead through 2,006 hands. That equates to 13.3% of the 15,000 hands the PLO pros have agreed to play.

“ActionFreak” and Galfond will be back at it again on Friday, May 1. You can catch the session live in its entirety on the Run it Once Poker Twitch channel.

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Secretariat Given +175 Odds to Win Virtual Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown

The first Saturday in May is Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. This year, there is a virtual Derby among Triple Crown winners. Photo by Richard Hurt (flickr).

The Kentucky Derby is traditionally run on the first Saturday in May
With Churchill Downs closed, a virtual Derby will take place instead featuring all 13 Triple Crown winners
Secretariat is the favorite in the field of legends

There is no Kentucky Derby for NBC to broadcast on the first Saturday in May, but the show must go on and television air time must be filled. The Derby will be run in September, but this weekend there will be a virtual Kentucky Derby with all 13 Triple Crown winners participating.

At 5:45 PM ET, the field led by Secretariat will race a-mile-and-a-quarter in perfect conditions. The simulation is being done by Inspired Entertainment, and it works a lot like the NBA Draft Lottery. Secretariat will be given the most scenarios (ping pong balls) in which he can win, with other top choices like Whirlaway and Citation having a decent shot. Gallant Fox, Sir Barton, and Omaha — great champions but not considered in the class of Secretariat — will have fewer winning outcomes.

Fans can win prizes if they select the winner correctly, and Churchill Downs will match donations to COVID-19 emergency relief funds up to $2 million.

Of course, there is betting too. Let’s look at the field and consider our best options. And yes, there is strategy to this.

2020 Virtual Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse	Odds
Secretariat	+175
Citation	+400
Seattle Slew	+800
Whirlaway	+900
Count Fleet	+900
Affirmed	+1000
War Admiral	+1000
American Pharoah	+1600
Gallant Fox	+2500
Justify	+3300
Assault	+3300
Omaha	+5000
Sir Barton	+5000

Odds as of April 30.

The Favorite

In 1973, Secretariat ran the Kentucky Derby in 1:59.40. It is generally accepted that top horses cover five lengths each second that they run. By that measure, he is nine lengths faster than any other horse in this race. That said, this is TV, and surely they want drama. That was not the case when they went to the starting gate 47 years ago.

Despite Secretariat’s greatness, clearly the track was running very fast that day as second-place Sham clocked in at 1:59.90. Those two plus Monarchos in 2001 are the only three horses to break the two-minute barrier in a history that dates back nearly a century and a half.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds Tracker

Triple Crown Winners’ Kentucky Derby Times

Horse	Final Time
Secretariat	1:59.40 (1973)
Affirmed	2:01:20 (1978)
Whirlaway	2:01.40 (1941)
Seattle Slew	2:02:20 (1977)
War Admiral	2:03.20 (1937)
American Pharoah	2:03.20 (2015)
Count Fleet	2:04:00 (1943)
Justify	2:04:20 (2018)
Omaha	2:05:00 (1958)
Citation	2:05.40 (1948)
Assault	2:06.60 (1946)
Gallant Fox	2:07:60 (1930)
Sir Barton	2:09.80 (1919)

It is very much worth noting that the race conditions vary year-to-year. Sir Barton won on a heavy, quicksand-like track, while things were fast for Secretariat. How that plays out in the computer simulation, on a fast track, we will have to wait and see.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds Tracker

Other Contenders

Citation is the first horse to ever earn $1 million. He did so by winning 16 straight major stakes races. In total, he reached the winner’s circle 32 times in 45 tries with 10 second-place finishes. Jockey Eddie Arcaro is the only rider to win the Triple Crown twice. For this simulation, he will ride both Citation and Whirlaway. Asked by CBS which horse was better, he said, “Citation could carry the both of us and still beat Whirlaway.”

In 1977, Seattle Slew became the first Triple Crown winner to do so with an unblemished record. It was more than 40 years later that Justify became the second to do so. Seattle Slew won 14 of 17 career races.

Seattle Slew also had great bloodlines. He sired champions Swale and AP Indy, and is related to Tapit and California Chrome.

Affirmed likely had the greatest competition in the Triple Crown. He won three tightly contested races against all-time great Alydar. After Affirmed captured the Crown in 1978, nobody won it again for 37 years.

Affirmed made over $2 million with 22 lifetime wins in 29 starts.

If you want a more modern champ, American Pharoah snapped the drought in 2015.

While the speed figures never loved Pharoah, he won nine times in 11 races including the Breeders Cup Classic. If you believe modern horses are better than old timers, he’s your pick.

Analysis

We’re handicapping what a computer simulation is going to pick out of a hat, and what that really requires is understanding who a person or group of people think the most-likely winner is. There is no doubt Secretariat has the most lottery balls, but by what percentage?

Citation is widely regarded as the next best. Who has the third-best chance, that is unclear.

While 4/1 feels right on Citation, and Secretariat is probably more or less in the right neighborhood, we suspect American Pharoah actually provides value. It is our guess that, between recency bias and the fact he was a true superstar, he has around 10% of the ping pong balls, and that presents a good wagering opportunity with his odds at 16/1.

Dave F.

NFL NBA Golf Sports Writer

Sports Writer

Dave has been working in sports journalism for over 16 years. He has broadcast, written about, and reported on the NFL, NBA, MLB, the Olympics, horse racing, golf, tennis, and college sports. Dave has created content for the Associate Press, Metro Networks, ESPN, and numerous local publications.

NFL NBA Golf

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What is the effect being two metres apart is having on us all?

Social distancing – the price

There were some interesting posts on the overnight thread which perhaps should be given a wider audience. This from Cyclefree is one of the best and is on the impact of the the metres apart regime that all of us are having to handle.

No hugs, no kissing. No intimacy.
No quiet conversations or simply being close to someone.
No choirs, no theatres, no concerts or gigs, no dancing, no visits to the cinema.
No walks with friends, no group or communal activities of any kind.
No meals or drinks out, no inviting friends, old and new, round, no parties – whether planned or impromptu, no family gatherings or celebrations.
No holding my best friend’s newborn child, no christenings or weddings or even proper funeral services.
No religious services – and if you have faith these do provide comfort.
No sport, no trips out to museums, galleries, historic or architectural sites.
No exploration of this country – or others.
No public lectures or talks or debates.
No evening classes or learning with others.
No chance of meeting someone new.
No personal beauty or therapy services.
No learning a musical instrument with a teacher present.
No more dramas or films being made – not with real life human actors.
No getting on a train for a long cross or inter-country journey, staring out the window and wondering who’ll you meet. No getting on a boat sailing somewhere and seeing where it takes you.
No possibility of serendipity.

Just confinement in front of a screen. And when we’ve watched every cat video on YouTube what then? Life at a distance mediated by a screen or telephone is not real. It may be your sort of life. It’s not mine and I don’t think it’s my children’s either. If I wanted to live like Sister Wendy Beckett by myself in a caravan in the woods seeing no-one (and even she got out occasionally) or a Hannah Hauxwell on a remote cold Yorkshire farm, I’d have bloody chosen to do so. But I didn’t and don’t and I miss all these things. Above all I miss the possibility of deciding for myself what I want to do. I feel my horizons shrinking but my mind is not. I feel the gap between the possibilities which opened up and which now have closed.

Mike Smithson

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Eight Hundred Health Precautions Planned for The Venetian’s Reopening

The Venetian is implementing some 800 steps to keep the Las Vegas gaming property safe when it eventually reopens. Precautions range from increased numbers of emergency medical technicians (EMTs) to using thermal cameras to check for coronavirus-linked fevers.

Gondola rides, the gaming floor, suites, and restaurants will be see multiple safety precautions in place when The Venetian eventually reopens in Las Vegas. (Image: Getty Images/ Robert Alexander)

While the Las Vegas Sands Corp. property has yet to identify a reopening date, this week it released the Venetian Clean Commitment plan for the casino floor, hotel suites, meeting spaces, as well as restaurants and lounges.

Our company will continue to adhere to guidance provided by the state of Nevada, as we look to data to inform our decision on when best to open our doors to guests and Team Members. It is not prudent to set an opening date without the appropriate data to support it,” a Venetian spokesperson told Casino.org on Tuesday.

Under the plan, The Venetian will have EMTs 24 hours a day to provide care to visitors with possible coronavirus. The venue will have a team of 25 EMTs.

A third of them will be at the property daily. That is believed to be more than typically are found at gaming properties.

There will also be additional cleaning and use of disinfectants, especially in the area where a guest, found to have COVID-19 symptoms, was located.

If a guest at the hotel is found to have coronavirus, their suite will be sanitized by a specialized cleaning service. It will not be used until fully sanitized.

Thermal cameras will be installed at entrances so security officers can check temperatures of workers and visitors. Anyone with a temperature over 100.4 degrees will be checked a second time and if a high fever is confirmed, they will get a medical assessment and then be advised to receive medical treatment as needed.

Players and other guests can wear a face mask and gloves. But the face mask cannot cover the entire face.

The gaming floor will see stepped-up cleaning. That specifically includes cashier counters, gaming machines, and gaming tables.

Casino Chips Disinfected Every Two Hours

“Our casino chips are disinfected at each table approximately every two hours, with additional sanitation procedures in place throughout the day,” according to the plan. “In addition, slot machines and chairs are arranged to allow for appropriate distancing, and table games have a maximum of three chairs per table.”

Those staying overnight at The Venetian will be given a face mask by the hotel. A safety kit with hand sanitizer, disinfecting wipes, and latex gloves will also be provided to hotel guests.

Visitors, players, and employees must keep physical distance from others. Guests need to stand at least six feet away from other people if they are in lines, in elevators, or walking around the resort. No more than four people will likely be allowed in elevators concurrently.

The Venetian will use electrostatic sprayers to clean high-touch surfaces with advanced disinfectant. Crews will also use ultraviolet lights to sanitize shipping boxes, luggage, and mail.

Gondolas will be limited to four passengers at one time. Gondola drivers must wear face masks.

The Venetian’s restaurant tables, slot machines, and other furnishings and equipment will be relocated to ensure appropriate distancing. Restaurants and bars will have less seating.

Chairs at the pool will also be spaced out for safety. Also, plastic barriers will be located throughout the venue.

Special cleaning and distancing precautions will also be implemented in exhibition spaces. The same will take place in conference areas.

The Venetian Cancels Reservations for May

Currently, The Venetian is not accepting reservations. The resort also cancelled all previously booked reservations through May 31.

Employees will continue to receive full salary and benefits through May 17. Emergency salaries for workers at partner restaurants are getting paid.

Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International will also beef up health precautions when they reopen given the risk of transmission from coronavirus, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

As of Monday, there were 3,793 COVID-19 cases in Clark County, Nevada, where Las Vegas is situated. There have been 186 deaths in Clark County associated with the pandemic.

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Blackstone Is Buying 10 Percent of Crown Resorts at a Steep Discount

Private equity colossus Blackstone (NYSE:BX) continues forging into the gaming business as the company is taking a nearly 10 percent stake in Australia’s Crown Resorts and is getting those shares from Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO) at a deep discount.

Blackstone is buying 10 percent of James Packer’s Crown Resorts from Lawrence Ho’s Melco on the cheap. (Image: Reuters)

The private equity firm is paying $360 million for all of the Crown shares previously held by the Macau operator, meaning Melco sold that equity at prices that were 37.3 percent below what the company paid for the stock last year.

Blackstone paid the equivalent of $5.31 a share for 67.67 million Crown shares. Last year, Melco doled out $8.42 a share for its stake in the Aussie gaming company controlled by James Packer. The relationship between Lawrence Ho’s Melco and Packer’s Crown became frayed as media reports surfaced in 2019 indicating that Ho may have been involved with a company barred from doing business with Crown.

Earlier this year, the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) launched an investigation into Crown’s licensing suitability for a Sydney gaming project with much of that inquiry focusing on the operator’s relationship with Ho.

Saved by the Virus

By February, the coronavirus was adversely impacting the Asia-Pacific gaming industry, giving Melco a plausible excuse to scrap the Crown deal.

Like other gaming companies, the City of Dreams operator is searching for more cash and the sale of its Crown stake, albeit at a loss, is an easy avenue for bolstering its balance sheet. In a recent regulatory filing, Melco said it has little visibility regarding when business will return to pre-virus levels in Macau.

Amid plunging traveller numbers due to curbs imposed to contain the new coronavirus, Melco scrapped its planned purchase of a second 9.99% stake in Crown from billionaire James Packer, in a deal that had already raised regulatory concern,” reports Reuters.

Melco’s sale represents the latest in an ongoing saga for Crown investors, one that also included a brief 2019 flirtation with a takeover offer from Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN).

More Real Estate for Blackstone

For Blackstone, the deal isn’t as much about potentially making a play to acquire Crown outright, but rather finding ways to extract value from the gaming company’s enticing real estate assets.

Blackstone, the owner of the Cosmopolitan Las Vegas, is a growing force in the casino real estate business, recently acquiring the Bellagio from MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) and partnering with MGM Growth Properties (NYSE:MGP) to purchase the real estate of Mandalay Bay and MGM Grand.

Crown’s Australian property assets are valued at just over $3 billion. Those include Crown Melbourne and Crown Perth. The company also owns Betfair Australasia, half of Aspers Group and a 20 percent interest in Nobu, the posh hotel and restaurant consortium.

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